What if there won't be any windows mobile devices?

[PerfectReign]

Again. Think long term. Will we still be using the same form factor in five years or ten years? I'm guessing not. I still see Microsoft and even Google coming out with something completely different in the next few years. Microsoft has repeatedly said as much

 

[anon(50597)]

Again. Think long term. Will we still be using the same form factor in five years or ten years? I'm guessing not. I still see Microsoft and even Google coming out with something completely different in the next few years. Microsoft has repeatedly said as much

They all will. The thing is when you already have a following (Apple, Google) it's easier to sell something new. That's the issue MS is up against. Trust.

 

[xandros9]

Again. Think long term. Will we still be using the same form factor in five years or ten years? I'm guessing not. I still see Microsoft and even Google coming out with something completely different in the next few years. Microsoft has repeatedly said as much

I believe so since I'm not sure what other form-factor could take the place of the ease of use, practicality and presence of a handheld rectangular computer.

We've had the same pocketable rectangle form-factor since the early days of the Newton MessagePad and Pilot 1000 and it's been nearly 30 years.

Of course, one can think I'm in the same line of thinking as those who foresaw only a faster horse-drawn carriage, (and I wouldn't blame them in the slightest) but I don't see anything on the wrist, face, implanted or anything really taking off to threaten the pocket-fitting rectangle in the next decade.

I do see VR, automation and software intelligence as the up-and-coming things to watch, but our phones aren't threatened yet.

Maybe if there's a big upheaval, a la the Treo + iPhone multiplied then it could shake up the commoditized phone market.

 

[Leonel Funes]

I cried a bit from the OP

Still hopeful though

 

[Drael646464]

There is one thing you have not mentioned in there - it's apps. They can deliver all kinds of hardware and OS innovation, but if they don't get developers to port/rewrite their apps for Windows 10, then it doesn't stand a chance. Remember McLaren? Remember the former concepts for the 950 and 950 XL?

At first I didn't understand why didn't MS release McLaren and the 950 series as planned, but now I am quite confident that I know why. The answer I've got is so simple but many people out there don't think of it and it is: they didn't have any apps compatible with the new hardware features except their own apps and they thought they couldn't make developers to write them properly. I wonder why.

Well MSFT HAS to make UWP work. There are plans in place to make UWP more popular with developers, like windows on arm for tablets and laptops, and windows s for laptops and tablets. The former should definitely IMO increase full UWP. Users will buy them without knowing anything about the SKU - win32 apps will run not as well, as native UWP. Tablets and laptops, are popular as windows devices, amongst consumers.

Not that UWP hasn't had some success already in growth, in the small time its been around. But it does need to be understood, by users of all windows SKUs, and all developers for windows, as THE new app platform, and the advantages thereof.

 

[Drael646464]

Again. Think long term. Will we still be using the same form factor in five years or ten years? I'm guessing not. I still see Microsoft and even Google coming out with something completely different in the next few years. Microsoft has repeatedly said as much

I think its likely in the next five years, we will see the release of flexible OLED screens (but they'll be expensive), and some non-flexible folding arrangements will probably preceed that (they will be affordable). I can see a "satellite" "true glasses like" AR display, such as the one MSFT is working on, entering the consumer market with a warm reception- price however unknown.

While I do think in the next 1-5 years we will see quite a few forms that will eventually supplant the slab phone. But price and usefulness will determine which ones, and how long it takes. Creaseless folding phones will probably be like cell phones were at first - elite until the price comes down. Creased folding phones IDK how well they'll be received, but that might or might not be thing that could at least capture marketshare quite short term.

AR displays, in a truly wearable form, seem like an option that would be vastly superior to mobile screen sizes, and that's quite portable - but price etc, and adoption.

So it'll probably be the next 1-5 years where we see these things. But it likely won't be for about ten years till they start to truly take over.

 

[Onyekesi Elochukwu]

We also seem to forget that Microsoft always release their phone with old or almost outdated hardware. It's always been the major characteristic of all Lumia phones.

 

[paragoneer]

Well MSFT HAS to make UWP work. There are plans in place to make UWP more popular with developers

As a starting point, perhaps more companies may follow Spotify's lead and create a Centennial app? Then once they can see the traction and user interest grow, the company may consider repackaging as a UWP app.

My concern with the state of the ecosystem now is the critical missing piece: Mobile. If there are no mobile users, only desktop-based desktops and tablet users, I fear there will be a lot of scepticism as to the business case for UWP. Why would companies bother with UWP if they can just package as Centennial?

It's a topic I'm most passionate about, so let's keep the conversation flowing ^_^

 

[Kot Prada]

We also seem to forget that Microsoft always release their phone with old or almost outdated hardware. It's always been the major characteristic of all Lumia phones.

Who cares, when OS allows to leave behind Apple and Google even with old hardware.
Android Phones are like Lamborghini with square wheels - no matter what power You will put under the hood (hardware), square wheels (Android) will destroy it anyway.

 

[Chintan Gohel]

If they don't approach developers properly and make a great device that is going to present the power of Windows 10 and UWP to the consumers and market it all correctly, they should be good to go.

If they don't approach or they do approach?

Apple innovations are at all time low, yet their sales are at all time high and that's all because of the build quality of their devices and their marketing department. MS learnt how to market Surface properly, hope they do the same with mobile devices.

This is the thing we keep clinging on to, hope that their marketing department really comes out with the best presentation, and that they understand what needs to be delivered. There will always be those who are just pessimistics and will find flaws in anything that is released but the marketing and the engineering departments need to produce something that can keep the most number of people satisfied to the highest degree possible

You often hear MS say they will release another mobile device "but it won't look like what is currently out there". So the question is, what do you want?

The bigger question is what will that kind of device be? Will it have a folding screen or attachable cover or hololens or what? The truth is that the next big thing is pretty unknown at this point. Take a look at most of the current mobile phone manufacturers - their innovation is almost dried up - it's more of just iterative improvements: better screens, reducd bezels, faster processor, more RAM, better cameras and more or less the same OS experiences. Where's the real innovation that can really catch on? Microsoft need to bring that real innovation and creativity to the fore so that it can become mainstream, just like the way hybrid devices have caught on, proper quality and finish have caught on with laptops and attention to detail

On topic though, I believe there is a place for Microsoft in the mobile market. If it’s done it’s done, but I also believe Microsoft could and should do more to bring attention to it and get developer support. Without developer support you’ll never have the customer base, not in this era of apps.

This is the crux of the matter if we are to go by the numerous articles stating why the Windows mobile OS hasn't been catching on, the reduced number of apps and their average quality.

As it is if MS were to release a new OS for their mobile devices coupled with a new device, what is going to entice developers to create new apps for the new OS? And to update their current apps so that they can work in the new platform? MS might just not release anything at all since they know the majority of the developers just won't be interested

I chose to support an app platform like Skype Bots or WeChat on which I can have my service run. Seems that may be a future trend.

Keep in mind, too, our kids wont want a stupid 4", 5", or 6" slab that can break. They may want something completely different.

With MS making excellent apps for Iphone, Android, and 10 - they are staying relevant.

This is an interesting train of thought - we may be overfocusing on the hardware and saying there should be apps but what if it's actually something else altogether? Most people usually use a few main apps and may keep a dozen or more apps just to use them occasionally

Imagine this - your phone or whatever it will become works like this - you use Cortana front and centre - to make calls, send sms, dictate emails, take photos etc - the core functions of most smartphones which the mobile OS natively provides - of course you can just use them without cortana - that option should be there

But for other functions, like checking train or bus schedules, booking plane tickets, making event reservations, depositing cheques, etc - that can also be taken care by Cortana but through use of the bots - where Cortana receives your request, sends the reques to the relevant bot and the task is carried out, but with user feedback -all without use of an app. Apps are very rigid in the way they work and for the most part do a couple of specific tasks. The main apps that people use can still be there since Facebook and others will make sure to develop them.

What if Microsoft is done with mobile? If I don't have a good alternative I may give up smartphones, use a dumb phone for voice and get a mobile hotspot. I already carry an ultrabook when I travel, so data would have to wait until I can get to it, but I would get to it.

There are days that I sometimes can work that way but my need for whatsapp and using the camera keeps me around with smartphones

*Os code shows new device SKU for "Andromeda"
*MS promises to bring new keyboard to whole OS, mobile included
*MS promises to bring "enterprise features" to w10m late US summer
*MS _demo's_ and promises to bring files on demand to win10m
*MS promises to bring timeline to win10m
*HP works with MSFT closely, and teases "probably the new x3"
*Wharton brooks told "don't release your new phone, we won't support it for rs3, because we are making some changes to mobile, but they can't say any more, hush hush"
*UWP, entire future of the windows platform -win10m, UWP powered OS
*CEO says "we will make more phones, they just won't look like smartphones today"
*COO of surface division "we will make more phones, they just won't look like smartphones today".
*Cshell seen in proto, runs on x3

NOW, what you are proposing is that this is a complete wall of lies. That not one element of it is true, and that MSFT, will fall flat on its face, with consumers, developers and its one OS, onecore, UWP - all will be admitted as farce, and MSFT will roll over and give up, because it gain immediate success with the ambitious goal of unifying windows.

AND what you are proposing is that they have software prototypes, on win10m, for things like files on demand, and cshell, with probably thousands of man hours involved coding them, and despite all that wasted money, have no intention to release any of it.

I find that concept, not credible. The simplest explaination is usually the correct one.

Those are quite a number of pieces of evidence that MS is committed to mobile - I'll give you that, you researched well, some I had no idea on

Those are mostly prototypes or testing phases, we're not sure that they will land into the market - the Lumia Mclaren didn't launch even though we've now seen the real thing - same with other cancelled devices as well as apps or software that never made it to the market or did make it to the market but was scrapped after some time

Can we be sure that whatever they do bring will receive consistent and ever increasing support for the next few years or so? People and companies need that confidence and stability, that belief and faith in something that is going to last. In the tech world that needs to be at least a couple of years. A few years back I was promoting a new service to universities in Nairobi called Bebapay (from Google) -it got scrapped after a few months. Even if Google was to bring a better service like that, people will be wary of trying that again

I don't know exactly what the plan is over the next few years, but I know that its not "giving up". Companies give up when they take losses, and lose profitability. When they are profitable, or investing rather than bleeding losses, they try to invest and expand into every viable area.

This is something - if I were to continue this train of thought, MS have currently retrenched so as to reduce the losses made in mobile so that they can invest more in the next big thing in mobile and be ready for it - nice concept for sure

 

[Drael646464]

As a starting point, perhaps more companies may follow Spotify's lead and create a Centennial app? Then once they can see the traction and user interest grow, the company may consider repackaging as a UWP app.

My concern with the state of the ecosystem now is the critical missing piece: Mobile. If there are no mobile users, only desktop-based desktops and tablet users, I fear there will be a lot of scepticism as to the business case for UWP. Why would companies bother with UWP if they can just package as Centennial?

It's a topic I'm most passionate about, so let's keep the conversation flowing ^_^

Well its sort of a "herding" approach what MSFT is taking.

On one side we have windows s - it can run centennials, and runs only store apps. Devs will want there apps here, as centennials if they don't want to lose the younger generations. On tablets and smaller screens devs will still have some motive to make things touch friendly and scale well.

One the other side with have windows on arm (much bigger audience) - it can run x86, but emulated (thus not as fast as native UWP apps, at best 70 percent of speed, and often less). One tablets and smaller screens, devs will have even more motive for touch friendliness and scaling, because arm devices have smaller internals - smaller tablets and new forms are possible. Lastly devs will have motive to include apps with mobility abilities, like gps tracking, always on LTE notifications...

Devs will want their apps full UWP, so users of laptops and tablets running windows have a better experience (and not complain to all their friends that their app is terrible, without even knowing that its because the app is win32), and they will also want gps based, or LTE based "mobility apps" like banking, finding things, share economies, and chat to be on there, because these common windows devices, laptops and tablets will suddenly be imbued with all the abilities of smartphones.

Through these two platforms devs will be "hearded" into full UWP. Or I believe, this is a great deal of the intention with both these products.

 

[Chintan Gohel]

I don't reckon "Andromeda" is that far off (whatever the device is finally called, or the OS that does with it). If I had to guess, Andromeda might be late next year?
It's already worked its way into the current code, much like scorpio did recently. And the whispers are picking up of a "new device with a new OS", so there is _some_ teasing occurring. I think that all points to "not that far off".
Not years. More like "a year".

Andromeda keeps popping up in your replies, what is it exactly?

Again. Think long term. Will we still be using the same form factor in five years or ten years? I'm guessing not. I still see Microsoft and even Google coming out with something completely different in the next few years. Microsoft has repeatedly said as much

But what will that next category look like? Similar but different or vastly different?

I cried a bit from the OP

Still hopeful though

Say what? I'm not losing hope, just imagining a what if scenario - I usually do that in my free time

Well MSFT HAS to make UWP work. There are plans in place to make UWP more popular with developers, like windows on arm for tablets and laptops, and windows s for laptops and tablets. The former should definitely IMO increase full UWP. Users will buy them without knowing anything about the SKU - win32 apps will run not as well, as native UWP. Tablets and laptops, are popular as windows devices, amongst consumers.

Not that UWP hasn't had some success already in growth, in the small time its been around. But it does need to be understood, by users of all windows SKUs, and all developers for windows, as THE new app platform, and the advantages thereof.

One would think that with 500 million (and counting) W10 users worldwide, there would be more UWP apps then there are right now - again, marketing plays a hand here as developers need to feel the pull and consumers need to give the push through their demand -you can't demand something that you don't know about

Some of the big names are making the UWP idea harder to push though- such as Google - their apps are conspicuously missing and that creates a mindset with other developers that the UWP idea isn't ready or that the MS store ecosystem isn't worth developing for - never mind that that Google and MS have had some friction

We also seem to forget that Microsoft always release their phone with old or almost outdated hardware. It's always been the major characteristic of all Lumia phones.

Not always, some of the Nokia devices were quite ahead when they released, like the 41MP camera sensor, or the widest selfie camera (at the time) or sensorcore for fitness tracking and various functions relating to movement - or even continuum which you have to admit was new

As a starting point, perhaps more companies may follow Spotify's lead and create a Centennial app? Then once they can see the traction and user interest grow, the company may consider repackaging as a UWP app.

My concern with the state of the ecosystem now is the critical missing piece: Mobile. If there are no mobile users, only desktop-based desktops and tablet users, I fear there will be a lot of scepticism as to the business case for UWP. Why would companies bother with UWP if they can just package as Centennial?

It's a topic I'm most passionate about, so let's keep the conversation flowing ^_^

One can argue that there are more devices like Hololens and IoT - but then again, these are niche cases and very few would actually target UWP just for the sake of IoT - unless my understanding of IoT is off?

Who cares, when OS allows to leave behind Apple and Google even with old hardware.
Android Phones are like Lamborghini with square wheels - no matter what power You will put under the hood (hardware), square wheels (Android) will destroy it anyway.

To put it in a different perspective - the best and fastest hardware is only needed if you're running really intensive tasks, which begs the question why your tasks aren't efficient? If an android phone with 2GB RAM cannot perform better than a windows phone with 1GB RAM, do we criticise the hardware or the OS that uses the hardware?

 

[Drael646464]

Those are quite a number of pieces of evidence that MS is committed to mobile - I'll give you that, you researched well, some I had no idea on

Those are mostly prototypes or testing phases, we're not sure that they will land into the market - the Lumia Mclaren didn't launch even though we've now seen the real thing - same with other cancelled devices as well as apps or software that never made it to the market or did make it to the market but was scrapped after some time

Can we be sure that whatever they do bring will receive consistent and ever increasing support for the next few years or so? People and companies need that confidence and stability, that belief and faith in something that is going to last. In the tech world that needs to be at least a couple of years. A few years back I was promoting a new service to universities in Nairobi called Bebapay (from Google) -it got scrapped after a few months. Even if Google was to bring a better service like that, people will be wary of trying that again




This is something - if I were to continue this train of thought, MS have currently retrenched so as to reduce the losses made in mobile so that they can invest more in the next big thing in mobile and be ready for it - nice concept for sure

I think at this point consistency and stability is a very reasonable doubt! It seems quite clear that MSFT is more concerned with its long play in mobile, that the exact current state of affairs, and what is being done to current mobile, they probably see more as a bridge, in terms of both current customers, and the software evolution itself.

Until they actually attempt their "phone that doesn't look like a phone" or get some headway with UWP, and some new software or hardware innovation, it would be hard to call them "all in", except for in the bigger picture sense.

I think if they found even a small profitable step forward that would change, but certainly in the present, things are a bit limbo-y.

I think they are cooking up proto's for sure. And if they could generate attention, the fires would be rekindled. But in the meantime, we do have a situation, where we are kind of waiting for msft to "do something" while they approach the situation more like a political scheme....

 

[N_LaRUE]

Not sure why I'm going to get involved with this one... maybe I like the pain.

@OP.

I think it's obvious that MS has some plans for mobile whether it continues with the status quo as Window 10 Mobile or branches into using a different method I'm not sure. There's lots of speculation on that one. No one really knows, except MS and as we know they don't say much.

A rebooting of their mobile platform, something already pointed out on this website, seems to be where they're heading. Not sure if that's good or bad. Tiring if you ask me from a consumer point of view but since I'm not using Windows Mobile currently it really doesn't effect me. I've stated that I'd be happy to come back once they sort themselves out, looks like a while still...

As for Centennial, UWP (Universal Windows Package, UWP (Universal Windows Program). There's a lot of speculation of how good these things are but going by what I've read it's still a lot of work for developers. You may get some large developers happy to make apps, like Spotify, but others who are used to they 'typical' Windows market might be a harder sell.

The main issue Microsoft has and continues to have is mind share. You can argue this all you want but even Google suffers a bit from this one. If you ask someone what tablet they have 9/10 they will say iPad, even if they don't own one. Say smartphone and you get iPhone. Apple knows how to capture mind share and they do it well.

Even though people will think that MS is a great software company and even if they know about Surface, the issue you have here is saying 'mobile' and thinking Microsoft or whatever they plan to call their product.

So what we have here is the case since Windows Phone 7/8 and still continuing. Low user numbers, low number of models, low number of developers interested.

We've been saying since I can remember that MS is playing the 'long game' when it comes to mobile. Is it so long now that people have forgotten them? I'd say yes. Maybe starting over is what they think is best. A fresh start. Could be a smart move.

Problem will always come back to one aspect. Apps. We live in an app world. That may change in the future but we are talking now. Not 5 years or 10 years from now. If you want to succeed in the consumer market you need apps. Without them you're just not going to get the interest, forget about mind share.

Whether MS plans for a consumer device or a enterprise device only time will tell. To me, I think they missed their biggest market and that was developing countries. It's sad that they couldn't see that themselves.

Anyway, that's my two cents worth.

 

[kaktus1389]

If they don't approach or they do approach?

Sorry, my thoughts are sometimes faster than my hands. Yeah, I meant that they need to approach devs properly.

 

[Drael646464]

I had an interesting discussion with some folks today. They are all somewhat technical, but by no means windows fans. They are constant complainers about windows problems. Two have apple products.

Anyway the subject of the windows store skype app came up, which IMO is better. They don't know terms like UWP or anything like that they just termed it "the next generation app" of skype. And they were using it, and preferring it.

I think really that's what the next big drive for MSFT should be. Perhaps they already achieve that in part by windows s - but big name apps, in the windows store. If people, on desktop, simply _go there_, which it appears they are starting to, it's almost a matter of everything else will fall into place from there.

It was just a sort of noteworthy moment for me. The perception was basically "those apps are new/better", and that's more or less all MSFT needs to communicate for UWP right now, get existing windows users, into that store.

So when it comes to something that might seem minor to some, or unrelated to mobile for others, I think things like Spotify, photoshop elements, kodi and iTunes are actually big news. If people can just get that relatively mainstream app, and pick it up from the store instead, that's the switch.

Right now, mobility apps, or full UWP - that's not the main thing, its just getting those normal, everyday desktop users to click on that store icon to look for their app first, instead of searching for it in the browser first.

And I admit, this is something I've only started doing recently. But that's all that's needed.

 

[Rainar Angelo]

My two cents

It may not make sense at all but I think the pull via Windows 10 S onto the store will enable developers to bring much needed apps to the store. The apps currently for PC will eventually be made complete UWP apps (i hope) and once the store has a decent stance, CShell has progressed and the so called 'Surface phone' is more than a prototype we might, just might see a whole new era for the windows phone. I don't think MS will sit it out just like that.

 

[tgp]

Devs will want their apps full UWP, so users of laptops and tablets running windows have a better experience (and not complain to all their friends that their app is terrible, without even knowing that its because the app is win32), and they will also want gps based, or LTE based "mobility apps" like banking, finding things, share economies, and chat to be on there, because these common windows devices, laptops and tablets will suddenly be imbued with all the abilities of smartphones.

OS X has had its desktop store for many years, but it still has plenty of non-Store software. I think if an all-Store scenario was going to happen, it would have already with on the Mac.

 

[Drael646464]

OS X has had its desktop store for many years, but it still has plenty of non-Store software. I think if an all-Store scenario was going to happen, it would have already with on the Mac.

It's not really like UWP needs an all store scenario. It just needs to be a place users generally do look for apps.

I don't think windows will ever be a 100 percent store scenario either. Part of the allure of windows is the freedom, whether that's technically, as a dev platform or whatever. But I could see the store being where the majority of users, find the majority of their software - and that would be a huge boon to UWP, and indirectly, every Microsoft OS platform.

 

[Mike Majeski]

The optimist in me would say that Microsoft will bow out on this generation of mobile devices - Android and Apple have won, and try to find the next thing.

However, how many times have we seen Microsoft try something new, abandon it, and then see Apple, Google, Amazon release it to much success later on? Kinect was a camera that responded to motion, voice, etc - people either didn't want it at the time or found it creepy and Microsoft abandoned it. Now people are comfortable with "bugging their own houses" with echos, nest cameras, google home, echo show and look - and where is Microsoft? Pushing a Cortana connected echo ripoff two years too late.

Windows RT was left in the dust because people didn't understand it at the time - but look at iOS 11 and tell me that isn't what Microsoft was trying for with RT. They just bungled the release and ran away.

So there is part of me that says there is a very good chance Microsoft will come up with the next big thing in computing - but they will mis manage the marketing, re-trench and then watch as Apple, Google, and Amazon release successful products along the same line a few years later.