CNBC: "Nokia In Full Scale Collapse"

[MattLFC]

Imho, Microsoft won't let Nokia fail, and neither will the Finnish government. If Nokia collapse, Windows Phone collapses with it; and anyone who know's anything about Finland, will realise that Nokia is as much a "national institution" as the NHS is in the UK, and Coca Cola is in the US - but more importantly, there is too much reliance on Nokia from the viewpoint of Finnish jobs, and economical power.

 

[Johnny Tremaine]

Intellectual property- if their value drops below say $3.00 per share. They will have aggressive suitors wanting to buy them out.

As of today, Nokia's share price is a $3.70. If they have another bad quarter as bad as the last one, or worse (as they're guiding), yes, it can fall below $3.

I'm assuming companies are already circling Nokia, looking to buy up different divisions, but mostly getting ahold of all those wireless patents.

Off the cuff prediction: by 2013, forget the Nokia you've always known as this giant phone manufacturer. The new Nokia will very likely be a smaller, leaner smartphone shop, sort of like HTC.

Of course that means more job losses, shareholder losses and very possibly another change in CEO (Elop will never survive post-acquisitions of any major divisions).

At the very worst, Nokia becomes the *official* hardware division of Microsoft, while selling off everything else.

 

[cp2_4eva]

Nokia has too much money to be considered in the midst of a full scale collapse. Also, I think their new line of smartphones is the resurgence of the company. The public think that just because a company loses some money that it's reason for them to be really worried. You can't always go up in the earnings column. You have bad eras. But with a company as big and successful as Nokia, do you really think they would need to sell off small divisions? They have billions. They can weather the storm. And I hope they do.

 

[socialcarpet]

No. If Nokia doesn't make with Windows Phones they are done. It is pointless to even think in such defeatist terms. Nokia + WP = success.

Agreed.

Another OS transition would finish them. They have to stick with Windows Phone.

If they announced in a year that they were going to Android, it would signal the beginning of the end of Nokia, guaranteed. They would hang on for a while, but you would see a steady decline that would not end until the company toppled.

 

[willied]

This is only going to benefit me when I buy their shares for nothing and years later I'll sell them for a billion dollars!!!! Wooooooooooooo!!!!

 

[tekhna]

Agreed.

Another OS transition would finish them. They have to stick with Windows Phone.

If they announced in a year that they were going to Android, it would signal the beginning of the end of Nokia, guaranteed. They would hang on for a while, but you would see a steady decline that would not end until the company toppled.

They don't have to. They could sell both phones. And it's totally clear the carriers think Nokia+Android would have been a runaway success.

 

[based_graham]

Good thing Nokia went with WP. I can see them failing if they went with Meego. There is no way Nokia can make a big drastic push with Meego like how they are pushing L900's right now.

If Nokia went with Android people will overlook the platform. Samsung and HTC own the Android domain Nokia would of been just another vendor.

With WP they stand out as a different operating system, different lifestyle, different ecosystem. Hopefully they take advantage of the entire MS ecosystem and become the #1 Windows OEM for everything.

 

[smoledman]

They don't have to. They could sell both phones. And it's totally clear the carriers think Nokia+Android would have been a runaway success.

I fail to see the point of them getting into Android with Samsung and HTC so strong. The opportunity here is the fact that Samsung/HTC designs for WP are so half-hearted.

 

[sentimentGX4]

They don't have to. They could sell both phones. And it's totally clear the carriers think Nokia+Android would have been a runaway success.

Nokia isn't exactly an expert at making decently spec'ed phones. If not for the fact that Windows Phone has standardized chipsets, the mask would fall off and expose Nokia's flaws. Nokia was the company with the worst spec'ed! Even behind RIM and Palm (before it was bought out).

Phones like the N8 and the C7 are the devices you expect from Nokia. (Not only slow but bulky and small display). Slap Android on top of those and you have a Nokia Android. There is no way Nokia could have ever succeeded in Android. You need a competent company to compete in the cutthroat Android market and Nokia isn't halfway competent enough to reel out decent Windows Phones device, tbh.

If not for extensive marketing, even Nokia WPs would be nothing but thick phones with small, outdated displays.

I fail to see the point of them getting into Android with Samsung and HTC so strong. The opportunity here is the fact that Samsung/HTC designs for WP are so half-hearted.

That's another important issue. Companies such as Samsung are designing their own snappy chipsets and I have no faith Nokia could handle that given its mess in Symbian.

 

[MattLFC]

Nokia never went with Android, because of a few reasons imho...

- Most importantly, Android (especially in the Froyo days when they chose WP) is a messy OS, even more fragmented than Symbian became. It is clunky, geeky, and has about as much simplicity to the average consumer, as the workings of an internal combustion engine. Nokia wanted a simple, closed, reliable, and standardised OS, anything less does not suit their customer-base.

- Microsoft will do just about anything they can to ensure that WP is a success, and like it or not, they are in the game for the long-haul, and will not only use their own expertise and resources to develop the best OS ever, but they will also invest freely in the platform. The future of Android is less certain, due to it being open-source, and the development to make it the best OS ever, will never be so much of a priority.

- Nokia maybe had the forsight/an idea, to consider that Google were circling Motorola, or at least aiming for some takeover of a hardware vendor in the future. The takeover of Motorola by Google, has imho, ended any chance completely, that Nokia may be interested in utilising the OS someday. Nokia know/knew Microsoft are a software company, and have little intention/interest in making hardware (Xbox aside). They always use 3rd party companies to build their phones, and simply create the core-software (WinMo devices, KIN, WP7 upon release etc).

- It's likely that Nokia got a better/preferential deal from Microsoft, maybe with cash for marketing, preferential treatment, lower license costs etc... Android and Google would likely never offer such perks.

- Also, for those who consider Android to be some glorified cash-cow or something - take notice of how successful it has been for Sony/Sony Ericsson.

 

[Laura Knotek]

Nokia isn't exactly an expert at making decently spec'ed phones. If not for the fact that Windows Phone has standardized chipsets, the mask would fall off and expose Nokia's flaws. Nokia was the company with the worst spec'ed! Even behind RIM and Palm (before it was bought out).

I wouldn't say the 808 is lacking in hardware, especially not the camera. Nokia Europe - Nokia 808 PureView with 41 MP camera

 

[MattLFC]

I agree Nokia have always been behind with technology, I used to hate Nokia's because when they had their expensive 3210 and 3310 handsets, I had Trium (Mitsubishi), Siemens, Panasonic and Motorla handsets, which cost less, and came with allsorts of features and technologies not present on the competing Nokia handsets, such as WAP, colour screens (psuedo ftw lol), MP3 players etc...

However, one of the reasons Nokia have enjoyed such a (generally) good reputation within the industry for many many years, is because they choose not to use "bleeding edge" technologies, preferring rather to use mature and reliable platforms instead, which most consumers prefer (they don't have a clue about all these new technologies, and just want a device that works). Looking back, I have to admit that none of the bleeding edge features in other handsets were really ready for production/consumer use in these handsets (ahead of their time), and Nokia probably took the correct route, which led to them outselling everyone else, by a HUGE margin.

Hence, I harp back to the point in my post, Android does not suit what Nokia is all about, reliability and quality. Android offers neither, hence WP and Nokia is the perfect marriage. It's just a shame it took so long for the fusion to happen, Nokia lost their way with Symbian, and tried to break the mould by releasing handsets based upon less mature platforms, and it (quite rightly) backfired on them. Had Nokia and WP7.5 wedded 3 years ago, I have a feeling Android and iOS may still be playing catch-up with their marketshare.

Thay have a mountain to climb, but they at least have a good quality and solid road and Land Rover to do it. Nobody said it was going to be easy, and Nokia will know better than anyone how tough the task will be. It's quite possibly more a case of endurance rather than being able to achieve it; they can do it, they just need to keep up the momentum.

And don't expect them to be outselling the iPhone or Android marketshare as a sign of success - their 5-year target will be far lower than this.

 

[Major]

By all accounts in the early going, the Lumia 900 launch has been a success. Reports of Nokia's demise just might be greatly exaggerated.

 

[N8ter]

WHITNEY TILSON: These Three Companies Are In 'Full Scale Collapse' - Business Insider

He also mentions RIM. We all can pretty much say that we know RIM is (they obviously have no direction & no future), but IMO Nokia is a toss up. What do you guys think?

RIM is actually in a bit of a better position than Nokia, so I don't know how you can say RIM is, but Nokia isn't.

RIM has a new OS coming out later this year. They have numerous gov't contracts and their phones are very popular in other markets. They're certainly not as strong as they haven't been, but they aren't failing on the level of Nokia at the moment. They are still actually profitable, while Nokia is bleeding money.

 

[peestandingup]

By all accounts in the early going, the Lumia 900 launch has been a success. Reports of Nokia's demise just might be greatly exaggerated.

They just got downgraded to "junk status". Fitch downgrades Nokia’s debt rating to junk after first-quarter losses - The Washington Post

 

[tekhna]

They just got downgraded to "junk status". Fitch downgrades Nokia?s debt rating to junk after first-quarter losses - The Washington Post

I asked over in off topic who, if anyone, actually owned Nokia stock, and it's been crickets.

 

[oldpueblo]

Time to buy.

 

[simonnyc]

I asked over in off topic who, if anyone, actually owned Nokia stock, and it's been crickets.

I picked up 200 shares of NOK last week at 3.90/share. Trade isn't working out for me yet but i bought it for the longer term (at least a year) before I sell.

Stock is flat today after the most recent downgrade so it looks like most of the bad news is now priced in. Buy buy buy!

 

[sting7k]

Nokia's future is highly dependent on hanging onto what is left of their marketshare in emerging markets and growing that.

This is why they are putting so much effort into Tango and the Lumia 610. The Lumia 610 and future lower spec Nokia WP phones are just as important to Nokia's survival as the success of the higher end stuff.

Nokia enjoyed a strong position worldwide for years with their feature phones, and their high-end feature phones (lower end Symbian devices) but the avalanche of cheap asian Android phones has crushed them in that segment and they are scrambling to get out from under. This is key.

Nokia has GOT to get some $100-125 (no contract price) Lumia's with Tango on them out in China, India and southeast Asia ASAP. They need to promote the crap out of them too, just like the Lumia 900 was promoted here. Android is eating their lunch there and far faster than they ever anticipated. Symbian and Meego are not going to save them there. If they can position WP7 phones as a desirable option in those markets, then they will be able to staunch the bleeding and begin to climb back up.

That part of their strategy is every bit as important as what they do here in the U.S.
There are already more Android activations and iPhones being sold in China than in the U.S.

It's easy to think we are the center of the universe here and complain that Microsoft and Nokia aren't giving us everything we want the minute we want it. Just remember, at the same time they are working on Apollo and stuff for us, they also need to be getting the Lumia 610 and other phones ready for these equally important market. It's also just as important for them to get popular Chinese language WP7 apps developed as it is to get Words with Friends or whatever your pet missing app is.

They've got their work cut out for them. :blush:

Exactly right. There are maybe 1-1.5 billion people that can buy a high end phone. So that leaves around 6 billion for low end phones.

All these companies have the same goal. Relatively few people can afford a computer. But mobile phones are far cheaper. They want to get one into as many hands around the globe as possible.

Nokia is right to put effort into the low end phones. In many many places around the world people cannot afford even the iPhone 3GS or iPhone 4. But they can afford a Lumia 610. Or right now the BB curves and low end Android models.

Last quarter 78% of the smart phones AT&T sold were iPhones. That isn't something Microsoft or Nokia can crack easily and will take a lot of time. But other markets are much easier.

 

[DungMasterFang]

I agree Nokia have always been behind with technology, I used to hate Nokia's because when they had their expensive 3210 and 3310 handsets, I had Trium (Mitsubishi), Siemens, Panasonic and Motorla handsets, which cost less, and came with allsorts of features and technologies not present on the competing Nokia handsets, such as WAP, colour screens (psuedo ftw lol), MP3 players etc...

That's bull. Nokia was the synonym for innovation for a couple of decades.