CNBC: "Nokia In Full Scale Collapse"

[Bkr11]

I asked over in off topic who, if anyone, actually owned Nokia stock, and it's been crickets.

I originally picked it up at $5.00. Bought more around $4.10 and again today at about $3.68 iirc.

I remember being in Sweden on my year of study abroad (around 1995/6) reading an article about Apple and it was at $2.00/share or something like that. While I'm not banking on an Apple-like story, I do think a few successful phones, a successful tablet and some traction in emerging markets and it can come back nicely.

I'd be lying if I said I'm trying to take a major position, but I think a few thousand shares at these prices could turn out nicely. Its not the safest investment out there, but I do think it has a decent chance of turning out ok.

 

[tekhna]

I originally picked it up at $5.00. Bought more around $4.10 and again today at about $3.68 iirc.

I remember being in Sweden on my year of study abroad (around 1995/6) reading an article about Apple and it was at $2.00/share or something like that. While I'm not banking on an Apple-like story, I do think a few successful phones, a successful tablet and some traction in emerging markets and it can come back nicely.

I'd be lying if I said I'm trying to take a major position, but I think a few thousand shares at these prices could turn out nicely. Its not the safest investment out there, but I do think it has a decent chance of turning out ok.

I think it probably has room to go up, but at this point it's got to be on someone's radar as a buyout for their patent portfolio and engineers/designers.

 

[based_graham]

Its at 3$ its a good time to buy especially when Windows 8 is around the corner. Nokia is going to go through some very hard times decline of Symbian slow rise of Windows Phones but they have to keep plucking through.

 

[KingCrimson]

Nokia will rise again like a phoenix from the ashes....

 

[tekhna]

Well, Barrons downgraded Nokia from neutral to sell, on weak Lumia sales. Or, rather, strong sales that faded away quickly.

Nokia Suffers From Hang-Ups - Barrons.com

"Our new price target of $2 [down from $4] is based on our estimate of the value of the company's intellectual property, which we peg at slightly more than $7 billion.

We assume no value for the handset business and no value for the roughly four billion euros [about $5 billion] in net cash, which Nokia (ticker: NOK) could potentially burn through in the next two years."

 

[sentimentGX4]

We assume no value for the handset business and no value for the roughly four billion euros [about $5 billion] in net cash, which Nokia (ticker: NOK) could potentially burn through in the next two years.

That's a rather careless assumption. 4 billion dollars is a lot of money and 2 years is plenty of time to turn around sales or to sell the company.

 

[willied]

I think it's about time I bought some shares.

 

[tekhna]

I think it's about time I bought some shares.

I've got a lightly used bridge to, well, I think it goes somewhere, for sale if you've got extra $$. Structurally sound, I think. Well, it might be. Not really sure.

 

[sentimentGX4]

I've got a lightly used bridge to, well, I think it goes somewhere, for sale if you've got extra $$. Structurally sound, I think. Well, it might be. Not really sure.

Believing a stock will rise or fall because an analyst told you so is a misguided. A company can be in steep, irreversible decline yet still offer value from being oversold.

You should never be too critical of others stock buying decisions because stocks is a game that awards investors with uncommon perspectives.

 

[tekhna]

Believing a stock will rise or fall because an analyst told you so is a misguided. A company can be in steep, irreversible decline yet still offer value from being oversold.

You should never be too critical of others stock buying decisions because stocks is a game that awards investors with uncommon perspectives.

Sure, in the end their wallets will be the ones critical or not. I think Nokia is, or should be, only for the highly risk-tolerant. Nokia either ends up in bankruptcy and their stock totally collapses (more so that it has already) or it triples (or quadruples) in value. There's no half-way point for Nokia, it's pretty much all or nothing, and you have to be comfortable with that possibility.

The thing about this article isn't that an analyst told me to buy or sell, but that their analysis shows that the fundamentals underlying the company are collapsing. You can do with that what you want, but they are arguing that essentially the only worthwhile part of Nokia is their patent portfolio.

 

[N8ter]

Believing a stock will rise or fall because an analyst told you so is a misguided. A company can be in steep, irreversible decline yet still offer value from being oversold.

You should never be too critical of others stock buying decisions because stocks is a game that awards investors with uncommon perspectives.

Analysts don't make projections on stock prices based solely on their opinions. There is methodology behind it.

I actually think Windows 8 and it's Tablet/Phone counterpart will hurt Nokia a bit in the ecosystem as it will loosen the restrictions on other OEMs a bit, allowing them to compete better on this platform (with is ultimately better for consumers, obviously).

Everyone in internet forums is an expert in stocks, anyways, so I don't tend to pay much attention to this. As long as a company is putting out products that I find useful, I will buy those products. The only time I won't is when it's pretty evident the company will fail soon and support may be an issue (as was the case with WebOS devices).

 

[pwaikon]

Imho, Microsoft won't let Nokia fail, and neither will the Finnish government. If Nokia collapse, Windows Phone collapses with it; and anyone who know's anything about Finland, will realise that Nokia is as much a "national institution" as the NHS is in the UK, and Coca Cola is in the US - but more importantly, there is too much reliance on Nokia from the viewpoint of Finnish jobs, and economical power.

As I'm a Finn I can comment this: I agree with you 100%. I read an article couple of days ago that stated the following: Partnership with Nokia is Microsoft's last effort to gain noticeable marketshare with Windows Phone. WP will do better on the popular scale w/ Nokia than without so if Nokia goes down WP goes down (for good) too . That is the reason why Microsoft won't let Nokia die, if money is what Nokia needs, MS will give it to them, 2 billion dollars was the amount mentioned in the article. IMHO I believe that Nokia has other friends and supporters in the mobile world beside Microsoft that will be willing to help them on the 11 hour (if it comes to that, God hope not!). Nokia, a legendary over 100 years old telecommunication company that has been one the founders of the field going bankrupt and disappearing completely is not something anyone in the mobile world want to see happening. The tough of Apple and Google being the only (major) players on the field is horrifying! Motorola got sold, RIMM is going down, Nokia is hanging on.... color me sad

Nokia means everything to Finland and the Finns. Nokia is the one thing we can be proud of. Nokia brings **** load of money to Finland and gives jobs to the Finns. It's true that majority of the owners of Nokia are non-Finns but in the end Finland owns Nokia and the government (or the Finns) are not gonna give Nokia away easily nor not at all. Finland losing Nokia simply is not an option for our country. Biased people can stop talking about company that and this buying Nokia 'cos we're not selling. Geesh *rolls eyes*

Disclaimer: This my personal opinion but really I am not an expert so please don't shoot me :excl:

 

[tekhna]

The argument seems to be that Nokia is to big to fail. Then the question is, too big to fail for whom?

Microsoft? Maybe. But they can't keep Nokia on life-support forever. Nokia is also not irreplaceable for them. HTC and Samsung have both expressed interest in being more than just Android OEMs.

The carriers? Maybe, but so far they haven't really evinced huge support for Nokia or WP7. That seems to be changing some though. Peoples' arguments here seem to revolve around the fact that carriers won't tolerate a duopoly, but so far they have.

Finland? Maybe, I dunno. Sounds like they're a point of national pride, but when push comes to shove, will they be propped up with no viable business model?

In the end, if Barron's is right about Nokia's phone unit being essentially worthless, that means that Nokia is the equivalent of a zombie bank, kept alive because people seem to think it needs to be, not because it should be.
In the end, we can't possibly know anything 'til July when the next round of earnings are released. But it doesn't seem very encouraging.

 

[simonnyc]

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett

 

[oldpueblo]

Remember when Apple was almost a dead company? Good times.