Analyst: "Microsoft will fail with Nokia handsets"

[PB_H]

AnalanASS

 

[tgp]

If WP's situation does not change in the future, would Microsoft keep it going? Is it worth something just to have their foot in the mobile door? After 3 years on the market WP has around 5% market share and has not made a profit. If say in 2 years from now the situation is similar, does Microsoft slam the door, or do they stay with it for whatever it's worth?

 

[a5cent]

If WP's situation does not change in the future, would Microsoft keep it going? Is it worth something just to have their foot in the mobile door? After 3 years on the market WP has around 5% market share and has not made a profit. If say in 2 years from now the situation is similar, does Microsoft slam the door, or do they stay with it for whatever it's worth?

I think that is impossible to say. I doubt MS even knows. Some of MS' largest institutional stock holders have been calling for MS to drop WP and Xbox. Some of these investors also have seats on the board. Gates is surely saying MS will fight or die trying, but where all the other board members stand I have no clue.

Anyway, after spending a few billion developing WP, 2 billion in Nokia support payments, and just spending 7 billion on purchasing Nokia, they probably aren't likely to give up in just two years. However, the longer they can't break into the mainstream market, the more difficult it becomes to ever do so. I do think time is running out. The question is at what point do those board members decide it's impossible. I would guess more than two years, but less than five.

 

[Chris Sandiford]

Something happened: I predicted it.

Something happened: I predicted it a long time ago.

Something else happened: I predicted that too

Something futher?: Well they all predicted it, but I predicted it the best.

Winner of the Own-trumpet blowing award for 2013: I predicted that mother also.

Yawn..

 

[wamsille]

Carriers don't want a Microsoft phone but they are OK with Google and Apple? Don't buy it.

Nokia and Microsoft will be fine after this deal closes. Windows Phone will be better for it. The sky isn't falling. Microsoft just isn't the tech darling Google is, so everything they do is suspect. What they have done in the past dictates their future even if they have gotten better and rivals in the marketplace are committing far more crimes by comparison.

Nokia holds patents. Microsoft has the legal team in place to fight those battles. It will be far less of a pissing contest now.

 

[morpheus1982]

On occasion.

What I find irksome about analysts is they are paid (a lot) to think about things, then make assumptions about what they see in front of them. Their thoughts then get pushed round to the world and his wife. These thoughts then affect stock prices and by extension shareholders and onto the general public. There isn't any facts or hard truths all they do is predict what they think is going to happen and the populous reacts to them. 9 times out of 10 they are wrong. Yet they still get paid and still come back for more analysis.

In my eyes they are just as useful as a weatherman. 9 times out of 10 they are wrong as well.

That is why we have weather apps. Although those are probably wrong too!

 

[gsquared]

Also, the Kin was some dumb, little, niche phone built for early teens. The way people concentrate on it, you'd think it was Microsoft's vision for their mobile future. It's amazing just how ignorant the tech world can be of such an unimportant product that was never supposed to turn into a whole ecosystem.

The Kin was ahead of its time. Someone posted a picture of one on the boards recently and people that had never seen one before were amazed at how cool of a device it was. We may see a variant of that device in the future.

 

[Jazmac]

TL;DR. Just another windbag blogger pundit.

I really have to question cereal killer's motivations in finding this article and posting it here. 3300 global posts? 13 posts here? A Droid in your profile? Not looking to spread FUD, now, are you?

Agreed. These kinds of stories always find their way to the forums and almost always posted by someone with less than 12 posts. I did not check the OP so this may not be you but the MO is they are from another platform, jump on a new WP and followed by posts about problems encountered.

 

[spaulagain]

If WP's situation does not change in the future, would Microsoft keep it going? Is it worth something just to have their foot in the mobile door? After 3 years on the market WP has around 5% market share and has not made a profit. If say in 2 years from now the situation is similar, does Microsoft slam the door, or do they stay with it for whatever it's worth?

But the WP situation is changing. If you look anywhere outside the US, WP is on a steady climb. It still has an uphill battle, buts its not like WP is completely stagnant.

Microsoft will make this work and turn it into a successful part of their business just like they did with Xbox.

Board members love short term gain over a year or two. But I think many lack the vision of a true 5+ year plan, especially if it means the first couple years of that plan are going to take some serious sacrifice.

 

[theefman]

And the reason for that WP growth? Nokia, and with them effectively gone as a smartphone brand will people still be interested in WP devices? Is Microsoft's name well regarded enough to attract the same growth?

 

[iamtim]

Nokia, and with them effectively gone as a smartphone brand will people still be interested in WP devices?

Because people are going to suddenly forget that the phones Microsoft is putting out effectively ARE Nokias? Designed by the same people, built in the same factories, probably even using the same Lumia name?

 

[ag1986]

Because people are going to suddenly forget that the phones Microsoft is putting out effectively ARE Nokias? Designed by the same people, built in the same factories, probably even using the same Lumia name?

I cannot comment about other markets, but this is true for India, very very true. People there buy Nokia phones, they do not know nor care that it runs WP8. My first four mobile phones were Nokias - my parents refused to buy me anything else. My first true smartphone was a Nokia 6600, at the time the most advanced handset on the market.

They will still buy a Nokia over a more capable Samsung or even a Micromax just because it's a Nokia, even though it's more expensive. It's actually like Apple in the USA - people automatically assume that anything with the Apple logo will be of high quality and good value for money. This is how people think about Nokia in India, and that sort of emotional connection is difficult to transfer to a new brand, especially one like Microsoft.

 

[Cree Ray]

Funny thing...would his analysis stand if we replace Microsoft with Apple and Windows Phone with iPhone ?

 

[JustToClarify]

Something happened: I predicted it.

Something happened: I predicted it a long time ago.

Something else happened: I predicted that too

Something futher?: Well they all predicted it, but I predicted it the best.

Winner of the Own-trumpet blowing award for 2013: I predicted that mother also.

Yawn..

he loves to brag around, but that still doesn't make his statements wrong...

 

[Reflexx]

he loves to brag around, but that still doesn't make his statements wrong...

You could say the same thing about anybody.

His main focus the past few years was predicting that Nokia would go bankrupt or switch to Android. Waaaay off on both. Nokia is going to be in an awesome financial position, and since they are selling their mobile division it's obviously not going to make Android phones.

 

[theefman]

Because people are going to suddenly forget that the phones Microsoft is putting out effectively ARE Nokias? Designed by the same people, built in the same factories, probably even using the same Lumia name?

When was the llast time the designers, place of manufacture was relevant to a phone purchase? People buy for lots of reasons and among them is the brand, current users may know about the Lumia lineage but new users won't so losing a known and high profile name like Nokia is bound to have an effect.

 

[Reflexx]

And the reason for that WP growth? Nokia, and with them effectively gone as a smartphone brand will people still be interested in WP devices? Is Microsoft's name well regarded enough to attract the same growth?

I expect some trouble. But MS is committed to the market, so they'll chug along.

It would be much worse if MS had to compete against Nokia.

Buy since there is no Nokia option, then I think people will go with the closest thing. The phone that is the exact same thing but with a different brand on it. But they may wait a while just to see and make sure that MS is holding to the same quality standards.

 

[iamtim]

losing a known and high profile name like Nokia is bound to have an effect

I have news for you, man... Nokia is neither known nor high-profile anymore. When I got my first 920, my friends were shocked that Nokia was still making phones. And my friends aren't clueless n00bs, either.

 

[theefman]

@Winning Guy. That only applies to people who keep track of such things or current users like us, anyone who was simply aware of Nokia in the past but is oblivious to all this will have no connection to the new phones under Microsoft's branding. Then its all on MS's rep and brand which wont have the pull of Nokia's.

 

[Reflexx]

I have news for you, man... Nokia is neither known nor high-profile anymore. When I got my first 920, my friends were shocked that Nokia was still making phones. And my friends aren't clueless n00bs, either.

In Asia and Latin America they are still pretty high profile and well known.

Though they are more popular in the feature phone market, they are still loved because of the quality they put into their products.