It does seem that convergence is the next step and that Google, Apple and MS are all trying to get there. Most likely though, MS will definitely get there first but too early so it won't be adopted, Apple will perfect it and the masses will love it, and Google will simply copy Apple, leaving MS, ultimately, out in the cold.
That's the thing though, last WWDC, Apple definitively told it's audience it would not merge iOS and OSX. OSX has iOS app support now, but it's not designed for touch or stylus, and apple has never made a device that supports those. Apple appears to be making zero effort in that direction.
Google on the other hand has touch support and stylus support on ChromeOS, android and chrome app support and Linux coming. Google also has it's seperate Fushia Hybrid desktop and mobile OS. MSFT has it's UWP platform and not simply a hybrid style OS in beta, but a full hybrid OS via windows core. And it's not just designed for mobile and PC either, it's also designed for IoT, and AR/VR.
I don't think there is anyway Apple could possibly catch up.
By the time MSFT gets to the adoption phase it will have A) an OS that is fully fined tuned and perfected and B) an app ecosystem that is fully fleshed out. A hybrid OS is something like a five year project. And building up a decent app system ontop of that takes years as well.
Plus not only given the size of such and endeavour would MSFT and perhaps google be far too far ahead, but then theirs also the issue of Samsung and Microsofts co-owned screen patent. I don't know the technicalities, but it's possible that Samsung or MSFT cannot use this technology without the partners permission. If that's the case, the leading smartphone manufacturer in the world in terms of userbase and unit's sold would be making microsoft's machine.
The issue is that making a hybrid OS, and filling it with an ecosystem and then competing with that product in a market with properly mature and evolved versions, isn't as easy as slapping a few technologies together and selling an iPhone, in a market with no real competition. It's less comparable to making a smartphone, and more comparable to making a desktop OS in the 80s and 90s with an application platform - there's so much work involved, that if you are ahead, the competition will never catch up.
Looking at Apple these days, it's lack of apparent innovation in recent years, and it's profit dependence on a soon be plummeting market, premium smartphones - I'm not actually too sure Apple will even be a household name in ten to fifteen years. At least any more than nokia was. I know that might sound harsh, but literally most of their cash comes from a product that's entering post-adoption, particularly in the west. A product that is about to have a dramatic shift away from the premium market, to price point competition.
I have more faith that Google seems to know what it's doing, it's most certainly positioning ChromeOS to replace Android on tablets right now, and compete directly against Windows on ARM probably on the same OEM devices with the same chipsets.
Indeed, even when it comes to THAT market, I feel like apple will be left out in the cold. Hybrids are not only the fastest growing segment of tablets, but the fastest growing segment of PCs as of this year.
iPad sales have been drifting downward for several years, and the iPad pro is their least performing product (like it genuinely sells really badly next to the regularly ipad). The tablet market overall has been shrinking, whilst the hybrid market has been rapidly growing - and apples only offering, the ipad pro, just hasn't been up to muster.
When you put that next to ChromeOS and Windows on ARM - both capable of running full desktop software, both optimised for both touch and mouse and keyboard, both running most likely on always connected light snapdragon designs - basically the sort of computer that could almost entirely replace the desktop as a basic consumer device (ie they are ultramobile, can operate as a tablet, a laptop, and a full desktop workstation)- both with a full market of OEMs, I think the ipad could swiftly die. Like really swiftly.
And all this in mind, I'd need to see some last minute surprise innovation and out of the box thinking before I'd consider apple to even be in the game. At minimum, some kind of AR device, or a move to make OSX touch friendly. The biggest capital apple has in the market right now is branding. And that branding is primarily with millenials and teenagers - millenials ten years down the track won't be particularly trend focused, and are according to studies are becoming money focused at last (ie budget oriented). Teenagers switch interests as quickly as whatever early adopters change their mind about what is cool.
In terms of ecosystem investment, google has a massive upperhand - google services are used in the education system throughout the world, even where ChromeOS isn't popular. So are windows devices and application ecosystems. Comparative software and service penetration for apple - it's relatively small. Once you take away the iPhone, maybe the ipad too, all you have left is the mac, and some branding value that could easily disappear if it had inferior products.
The only way apple is any of these games if it had a technological and software edge. It needs to be in the same ballpark for polish. I'm not sure it will be.
If I was apple I would:
*Immediately start scaling OSX for ARM chipsets and touchscreens, ie merge OSX and iOS.
*Develop a HoloLens competitor running on the same platform
*Make a real ultramobile rather than the ipad pro.
*I'd also probably invest majorly in a Ai based search engine to compete with google -
right now they have the window to make it work, and that would help keep them funded in the years between the smartphone boom and convergence (seeing as they have literally no shot at VR, unlike playstation and Microsoft, and amazon one of MSFTs partners seems to be leading in IoT, with google not far behind).
I've heard some things that make me think this _might_ happen, and this is the only rumour apart from the HoloLens competitor rumour that gives me any faith in what apple is doing. Certainly apple might be doing a lot in secret, that we don't know about, but nothing we do know about for sure gives me the kind of faith everyone else seems to have.
Blackberry used to rule the smartphone. Microsoft the OS. Nokia the phone. Tech isn't sports shoes, you need more than temporary cool to keep afloat.
Here's a list of iconic brands that fell from their place of honour:
Pan Am
Poloroid
Blockbuster Video
Nokia
Enron
Oldsmobile
IBM
Woolworth's
General foods
Walkman
Amiga
Sega
And the list goes on....history is a litany of companies that used to be "it". Tech especially. Look at how nintendo has to hold of for dear life. They used to be king of the pack in portable and console gaming, now they are very lucky to have stumble upon a comeback that gives them any significant market share - and even then, playstation is bigger, xbox is bigger, PC gaming is bigger, all they have left, with a great deal of effort, is a comfortable profitable niche (that could also vanish should one of those others make a comparable product)