Yes. If the only way to close the app gap is to be content with Android apps that perform poorly, have more bugs, or come with other restrictions that they don't have on proper Android devices, then most people will ignore Android-compatibility as a feature. Filling the app gap with apps that don't work as well as intended just isn't a convincing solution to WP's app problem. I think most people would argue that the app gap still exists, but that it has morphed from a gap of quantity to one of quality, which is exactly what many people are already saying about the current situation.
Microsoft has to improve the perception to increase the market share, It's not necessary to solve the problem perfectly. They have to promote the Lumia line with the same pitch that the Nokia X, -the apps are here-:
"Nokia X smartphones are your Fastlane to Android™ Apps…. Access the world of Android apps...". Or like Chen saying that BB10 runs 98% of the Android apps, when they launched the z3 in Indonesia with pretty good results.
One thing that helps this strategy is imperfect information in the markets. Advertising, complexity and mixed results produce an improvement of perception beyond the reality thanks to the confusion and the ignorance of the buyers.
Android apps is not strategy primarily to convert hardcore Android or iOS users, or informed tech enthusiast like us. This strategy will be more effective in the low-end segment, and in emerging markets where the buyers are less informed.
A key element of the strategy is a association of the strong brand "Android" with the product "Lumia xx", this alone would increase sales.
A big share of the smartphone users, specially in emerging markets, don't need many apps, so even if Android apps don't run that well, they won't notice the problem. Other users need just a few Android apps that don't use very often and could accept an inferior experience in those apps (mi case).
The increase in market share produced by this strategy will add energy to the system, improving the quality and increasing the number of both native and Android apps.
If this is to become reality, I expect MS would ignore native Android apps (in the traditional sense of the word, not as it is often used in these forums) and support only those apps written in Java. That accounts for the overwhelming majority of Android apps, with games being the most common exception (although cross platform frameworks like Unity are helping on that front already). I see no reason why Java apps can't perform just as well on WP as they do on Android. However, if that assessment turns out to be correct, I see no reason for companies to spend hundreds of thousands of $$$ developing/updating/maintaining two apps, when they can spend only half that amount by developing just one Android app that runs on both platforms.
If Android apps work perfectly in WP, with the same level of performance, stability, etc. Then Microsoft has to adopt the Android runtime with the same level of support than Winrt. That means adding APIs on top of the Android runtime, so developers could take advantage of the features of the platform, including custom UI components that follows Metro design.
The cost of developing a full featured WP app would be reduced to fraction of the current cost. MS would have to impose design guidelines to developers to force them to use the WP APIs and adapt the apps to the platform. For smaller apps the rules could be relaxed.
While I can think of a few possibilities of how such a regulations-framework might be constructed (
I described one here), I'm not sure about the extent of those ideas being practical/possible/legal in reality (mainly due to a lack of information), or if MS is even thinking about something along those lines.
I agree, they have to enforce restrictions to add more incentives for native development. Android support is just a means to an end. It should be a simple set of rules that produce the desire effect.
I'm not ready to drop the hammer and say this can't work, but I'm sceptical. I hope MS will convince me otherwise when the time comes.
I think most people with strong opinions in either direction are judging too hastily. IMHO considering only the technical aspects of Android app compatibility, which is what most here are doing, just isn't enough to make an informed prediction of how this could play out...
I agree, It's a really hard to tell. There are a lot of things going on with Windows and Microsoft, adding support for Android apps is not a event in the vacuum, the effect would be different if other variables change. What if market share increase with the new OEMs?, what if Universal apps are a big success?, what if the enterprise adopt WP and Windows tablets?. What if Android One phones takes market share from WP?
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