First off, even at the risk of being tarred, feathered, drawn, quartered, and having my remains fed to a fire Ant hill:
ICS and J.B. Android phones are not the "lag, stutter, freeze, repeat" devices of the previous couple Android cycles. The Multi-core processors helped, the optiminzation of the OS helped, the OEM's dialing down their UI skins helped a TON (looking at you, HTC Sense and Motrola MotoBlur), and this generation of Androids are much better. Do not think for one second any growth WP gets will be because of Android "rage" over poor performance. There is very little actual disgust with Android. They keep improving their tools and baked in features. Android is not losing any steam. Period. They are actually gaining due to improving performance, which is amazing.
However, Android cannot offer a true entire ecosystem. Microsoft can. Android cannot offer a new way to work a device. Microsoft can. All we can hope for is that Microsoft, Nokia, HTC, all their other OEM and Tablet makers are sharing in the vision of what Windows offers.
In other words, it is my humble, unimportant opinion that the OP is correct: Microsoft will get WP users based on it's own merits, ecosystem, improved tools and support. Not because Android, Apple, or RIM failed.
Although that WOULD help......