My mobile OS market share predictions for the next 10 years

[anon(5969054)]

My prediction down below. Share your own and your thoughts!

Current:
Android: 84%
iOS: 12%
Windows: 3%
Others: 1%

2016 (Windows gains due Windows 10, Android loses most):
Android: 80%
iOS: 12%
Windows: 7%
Others: 1%

2018 (More and more people start to discover Windows 10 and even some Apple fans hop over):
Android: 70%
Windows: 18%
iOS: 11%
Others: 1%

2020 (The **** gets real. Developers see Windows 10 as a number 1 developing platform, Windows market share almost doubles, Apple fans see no reason anymore to pay extra for Apple stuff):
Android: 60%
Windows: 31%
iOS: 8%
Others: 1%

2022 (Windows takes another huge gain because it has zero disadvantages anymore, Apple takes a big drop because it becomes to expensive for people and they lack innovation):
Android: 40%
Windows: 54%
iOS: 5%
Others: 1%

2024 (Windows is the number 1 mobile OS because finally all sheeps have been convinced. Android and iOS have failed to bring 1 OS for all devices):
Windows: 65%
Android: 30%
iOS: 4%
Others: 1%

 

[prasath1234]

Good imagination.

 

[shayanr]

Meanwhile blackberry is on the list too..check out their 10.3.1 update they brought the amazon app store and they have cool new features..consider blackberry too..blackberry is sidelined just like windows and behind the curtain they both are putting their cards for the upcoming future

 

[theefman]

Fantasy.

 

[mathsisbest]

I don't see Windows gaining more than 10% market share in the next 10 years. Maybe after that

 

[Jas00555]

I just don't understand how you think it will go from 7% to 18% in two years.

 

[Guytronic]

We won't even be carrying smartphones in 10 years.
At least not what we call a smartphone today...

 

[someone2639]

Good, but then we wouldn't be different!

 

[LockOnTech]

Optimistic predictions, we'll have to wait and see; The world is constantly changing.


Sent from my iPhone 5s using Tapatalk

 

[a5cent]

Apple went from 0% to 45% smartphone market share in the U.S. in under five years. Before that they were basically a music company with an irrelevant computer division on the side. People just get caught up in the here and now and can't imagine anything changing, until it does. Thinking we can reliably predict changes in the consumer market beyond the three year mark just isn't very realistic. Not saying it will, but anything can happen.

 

[fatclue_98]

I just don't understand how you think it will go from 7% to 18% in two years.

All it takes is one game changer. Remember the HTC Dream? It was a novelty until the Moto Droid came out less than 2 years later. How'd that work out?

 

[Yazen]

Being way too optimistic

 

[Pacus1x]

Being way too optimistic

Who knows... maybe not those numbers, but at least with 10 - 15% of market share you can have a decent ecosystem.

 

[theefman]

Apple went from 0% to 45% smartphone market share in the U.S. in under five years. Before that they were basically a music company with an irrelevant computer division on the side. People just get caught up in the here and now and can't imagine anything changing, until it does. Thinking we can reliably predict changes in the consumer market beyond the three year mark just isn't very realistic. Not saying it will, but anything can happen.

Apple came to the market with something new and fresh that captured the imagination of the ordinary consumer who no one else had been able to attract. Plus their loyal band of followers. That's a scenario that's hard to imagine being repeated.

 

[a5cent]

Apple came to the market with something new and fresh that captured the imagination of the ordinary consumer who no one else had been able to attract. Plus their loyal band of followers. That's a scenario that's hard to imagine being repeated.

Very few people are visionary enough to foresee any of the disruptive technologies before they actually came to market. How many were visionary enough to imagine the telephone before it replaced the telegraph? How many imagined the pocket calculator before it replaced their fingers? How many envisioned the potential of the CD before it arrived? How many people here had the imagination and technical smarts to envision something like an iPhone (with all the things that made it the success it became) before 2007. Nobody. We could easily list a hundred more examples if we wanted to. In hindsight these things all seem obvious, but that's always true of any good idea.

These are obviously extreme examples of disruptive technologies, but MS doesn't need that level of disruption. Two or three smaller ones will do fine.

 

[anon(8985111)]

I kind of have the feeling that you are underestimating Google's / Apple's innovation departments. If they were to not develop their ecosystems further over the next 10 years, I might potentially agree with some of your estimates, but that is likely not going to happen.

 

[shayanr]

So you think only windows will develop and apple and google will just sit back and watch..for your 2024 I might see iOs on the top

 

[prasath1234]

I believe only iOS will be there after 2024.all os would have packed their bags including android.That is because apple would have bought all the big companies .

 

[sdc1]

Is this the most ridiculous thread ever posted? Possibly...

 

[oviedofreak82]

I don't think it's possible for Windows to be #1. I think it's realistic to say that Windows Phone global market share in five years will reach 10-15%.