Slashdot: How Windows Phone 8 Can Succeed

[aubreyq]

Especially a red-head like I endured.

Was she like the one on your avatar picture?

 

[Daniel Ratcliffe]

Was she like the one on your avatar picture?

Or was her hair as red as the Nokia Lumia 820 in lipstick red?

 

[fatclue_98]

Was she like the one on your avatar picture?

She was definitely the inspiration.

 

[fatclue_98]

Or was her hair as red as the Nokia Lumia 820 in lipstick red?

"Fire in the hole" is not just for grenades young man.

 

[mmacleodbrown]

I think we are just defining "success" differently. That you are part of this community and supporting the platform certainly is a success (I would be the last person to dispute that)! I also agree that the reasons for that success don't matter (neither do any other single persons reasons for liking WP).

However, my definition of "success", in the context of this thread, differs. IMHO "success" is only achieved after Microsoft's earnings from it's mobile division suffice to sustain competitive development efforts with Google and Apple. I have no idea how large of a market share that requires, but it certainly is much larger than what WP has today. As of right now, Microsoft is sinking millions of dollars into WP every week. That rate of spending might need to be raised further still. Obviously, at some point, those expenditures must balance out with earnings, or we can all kiss WP goodbye. That's why I wouldn't call WP a success until we reach that point.

Interesting view and I agree
Im thinking of google and android now - no knew what it was and the market share was tiny, but google had one key thing in my opinion, perseverance.
Initially they didn't appear to care about market share, they just kept plugging away, releasing new versions and improving with each one until the functionality was there that made users switch. I think MS need to do the same, in for the long haul, ignore the critics and keep developing..
I think with WP8 MS might gain traction upto the point that google was with ?clair or maybe froyo (just guessing!) and that we will see the user base rise, but perhaps we will have to wait until WP9 until we really see the mass migration

You may be right, but I'm not sure. As a software guy, I would prefer fixing the products problem instead of devising a method of marketing around it. In my view the product just needs to be better at selling itself (I'd actually have a few ideas on that). I guess I'm just somewhat skeptical that advertisements can take WP as far as it needs to go, no matter how well they are done. Apparently, all companies agree that northern/western/central Europe (excl. the U.K.) is one of the most non-responsive advertising markets in existence, so being from central Europe myself might explain some of that skepticism.

Perhaps, but the Apple ads were a success and their "There is an app for that" catchphrase has entered the language over here in the UK, so maybe an advert showing the ease of use for mapping/AR services, or switching between email accounts might pull in some people.
Microsoft have a massive advantage that Google doesn't have, and that is their desktop and Office real estate - if they can integrate those with their phone OS, that will drive a lot of users just like the iphone helped MacBook sales.
I fully agree with the mantra over fixing problems rather than marketing your way around them..

 

[a5cent]

Initially they didn't appear to care about market share, they just kept plugging away, releasing new versions and improving with each one until the functionality was there that made users switch. I think MS need to do the same, in for the long haul, ignore the critics and keep developing

[edited]: Yes. Without the will to march on while being ridiculed for their lackluster market share, Microsoft might as well give up now. [/edited] Absolutely agree. However, that won't take Microsoft as far as it took Google. I also think you are misjudging the initial factors that set Android on its path to success. Technical maturity and features were important, but they certainly weren't the deciding factors. Carrier marketing, being in the right place at the right time, and Apple themselves contributed much more to Android taking-off, than anything else.

If that interests you I'll be glad to elaborate, but don't want to bore you with details if it doesn't. I already made that mistake in my "how many cores does a smartphone need?" thread where the discussion got so involved that most people lost interest, and would prefer not to repeat it.

On the advertising-front we largely agree. Both of us would adjust the advertising campaign in the same way if we were in charge (why aren't we BTW?). I just wouldn't expect to gain as much from those advertisements without adressing the aforementioned aesthetical issues first. Whatever Microsoft does, lets just hope they get it right.

 

[pjs37]

Yes. Without preserverance Microsoft might as well give up. Absolutely agree. However, that won't take Microsoft as far as it took Google. I also think you are misjudging the initial factors that set Android on its path to success. Technical maturity and features were important, but they certainly weren't the deciding factors. Carrier marketing, being in the right place at the right time, and Apple themselves contributed much more to Android taking-off, than anything else.

If that interests you I'll be glad to elaborate, but don't want to bore you with details if it doesn't. I already made that mistake in my "how many cores does a smartphone need?" thread where the discussion got so involved that most people lost interest, and would prefer not to repeat it.

On the advertising-front we largely agree. Both of us would adjust the advertising campaign in the same way if we were in charge (why aren't we BTW?). I just wouldn't expect to gain as much from those advertisements without adressing the aforementioned aesthetical issues first. Whatever Microsoft does, lets just hope they get it right.

I have to agree, between the original high cost of the iPhone, the lack of any other carriers carrying it both played, and the piles of garbage feature phones with touch screens that they tried to foist onto people in the meantime (Anyone remember the old Samsung Touch Screen Phones prior to android?) all had a role in Android's success against Apple.

Now MS does have some mindshare advantage that they will definitely need to use to drive ahead. The Xbox brand is their biggest asset in this era and they will hopefully take full advantage of it.

 

[brmiller1976]

(Anyone remember the old Samsung Touch Screen Phones prior to android?)

Oh yes, the Samsung Instinct... Sprint's "iPhone killer." I remember it well! It totally mopped the floor with the iPhone in the... ummm... Sprint CDMA market.

 

[pjs37]

Oh yes, the Samsung Instinct... Sprint's "iPhone killer." I remember it well! It totally mopped the floor with the iPhone in the... ummm... Sprint CDMA market.

lol My wife (then g/f at the time) Went to the T-Mobile store to get a new phone as her nokia flip phone was getting long in the tooth. She ended up getting some Samsung Touch Screen device (Behold?) it wasn't an android. Man that thing was terrible, scrolling was a gamble because sometimes it was scrolling other times it thought you meant click. We went to the Food Court got lunch and promptly returned it the same day. She ended up with a MyTouch 3g which at least had a useful touch screen (and was a fine device until they tried to show horn 2.2 on it)

 

[brmiller1976]

You could have gone with the Behold II -- it was a bizarre Android 1.X device that added an incredible UI feature -- an onscreen cube that would pop up with one app on each side. You pushed the button, you got the cube, and it lagged. BOY did it lag.

They've come a long way since then.

 

[pjs37]

You could have gone with the Behold II -- it was a bizarre Android 1.X device that added an incredible UI feature -- an onscreen cube that would pop up with one app on each side. You pushed the button, you got the cube, and it lagged. BOY did it lag.

They've come a long way since then.

Yeah that wasn't out at the time. I remember they had a MyTouch 3G (1st generation) and then a bunch of feature phones with touch screens and some blackberry's...Dark Times they were...oh and the HTC HD2?

 

[Laura Knotek]

You could have gone with the Behold II -- it was a bizarre Android 1.X device that added an incredible UI feature -- an onscreen cube that would pop up with one app on each side. You pushed the button, you got the cube, and it lagged. BOY did it lag.

They've come a long way since then.

That makes me want to look for a Behold II on eBay, not because it's a good device, just because it sounds so unusual.

 

[AngryNil]

"Apps"

If people can't get the trending game or app everyone else has, they are going to feel stupid going with Windows Phone.

 

[a5cent]

"Apps"

If people can't get the trending game or app everyone else has, they are going to feel stupid going with Windows Phone.

Yes, very important. However, Microsoft has no chance of winning that race. Developers will always target the largest markets first, which will be iOS and Android for quite some time. Microsoft can pay developers to port the most popular apps to WP8, but that will never get us every app every WP8 user could ever want, and the WP8 app market will always be left lagging behind.

Microsoft's only hope is to change the way the game is played. They need to put HALO advertisements back in cinemas... and at the very end fade in "coming exclusively to Windows Phone 8". Repeat that for Madden NFL 13 and a host of other well known titles and make sure neither Android nor iPhone get anything comparable. Make iPhone and Android users feel left out, and keep it that way until WP goes from distant third to second place in market share. From there on out the marketplace will take care of itself.

 

[pjs37]

Except MS does have the ace up their sleeves of the massive install base that is Windows OS. As new machines start shipping with Windows 8 we are talking a much larger market share than OSX and those are all potential customers for developers since they all will have Windows Store on those PC's and the Start menu will load automatically when they log in thus exposing a whole new eco system to countless customers. From there it is a shot hop skip and a jump away (I assume) to port their apps to Windows Phone.

 

[trivor]

Everyone here is missing the point. You need to get the carriers to get "their salespeople" behind a phone. Talked to a sales person at a Verizon store and his response to WP was "no chance". If someone walks into the store and they want an iPhone, they sell them an iPhone. If not, they will try and sell them an Android phone because they get the best commissions on them. As for WP8 succeeding long term, they need to sell enough phones that their hardware partners (Nokia, HTC, Samsung) START MAKING MONEY on Windows Phone handsets - between the discount price and the rebates NOKIA LOST money on the 900. With the tech in the 920 it is going to have to go for at least $199 (probably $249) on contract and $649 off contract in order for Nokia to make money and they do need to make money at some time. WP8 needs something compelling to draw in people from Android/iPhone - the "It works better" just doesn't cut it for the average person. And continuing to put down the stupidity of iPhone users is not going to draw new users to WP (same for putting down Android users). 85% of the people in the world aren't stupid (current combined Market Share of iPhone/Android).

 

[Jazmac]

What seriously needs to happen is Microsoft has to convince medical apps makers like Epocrates, The Sanford Guide to Antimicrobial Therapy and others to come to the platform. My wife loves her Nokia Lumia 900 Windows phone but the incentive for her to stay is for medical app standards to come to the platform. My wife is leaving for the Iphone 5, not that she has a thing for iphone but because the platform isn't making the case for medical professionals.

 

[a5cent]

Except MS does have the ace up their sleeves of the massive install base that is Windows OS. As new machines start shipping with Windows 8 we are talking a much larger market share than OSX and those are all potential customers for developers since they all will have Windows Store on those PC's and the Start menu will load automatically when they log in thus exposing a whole new eco system to countless customers. From there it is a shot hop skip and a jump away (I assume) to port their apps to Windows Phone.

You may be right, although I think it is very hard to predict how well that will work out. It sounds like you are expecting a unified W8 market to blossom into existence, which I just don't see happening. Instead, what we will get are two distinct, largely unrelated markets, the W8 and the WRT markets, with WRT Pro owners being the only cross-over customers. The main reason being, that I just don't see laptop and desktop users (the productivity workers and hardcore gamers) buying any significant amount of WRT apps.

Compared to how you see the WRT market, I see it growing slower (because I largely exclude W8 users), thus generating less developer interest which leads to fewer apps. That isn't great, particularly since WRT is going to the starting line next month with but a few hundred apps under its belt.

As I see it, Microsoft will still have the app related chicken and egg problem.

As a result, Microsoft might attempt to sell WRT tablets as the best thing since sliced bread even without apps. That is entirely possible because WRT tablets will allow you to get real work done (i.e. Office RT with Keyboard and Mouse) and come with a lot of preinstalled software/apps. If that sales pitch is successful, the apps will follow too.. for WRT and WP8.

 

[a5cent]

You need to get the carriers to get "their salespeople" behind a phone.

I think that is also an important point, but even an army of salespeople pushing a certain device can't guarantee good sales.

AT&T would love to sell less iPhones (very expensive to subsidize). That is why they tried to push the Lumia 900 really hard during Q2. Unfortunately, it didn't turn out very well at all, even after spending 150 million on advertising campaigns, offering free Lumia 900's to sales staff and holding hundreds of Lumia 900 training events.

Some other piece of the puzzle is also missing.

 

[pjs37]

You may be right, although I think it is very hard to predict how well that will work out. It sounds like you are expecting a unified W8 market to blossom into existence, which I just don't see happening. Instead, what we will get are two distinct, largely unrelated markets, the W8 and the WRT markets, with WRT Pro owners being the only cross-over customers. The main reason being, that I just don't see laptop and desktop users (the productivity workers and hardcore gamers) buying any significant amount of WRT apps.

Compared to how you see the WRT market, I see it growing slower (because I largely exclude W8 users), thus generating less developer interest which leads to fewer apps. That isn't great, particularly since WRT is going to the starting line next month with but a few hundred apps under its belt.

As I see it, Microsoft will still have the app related chicken and egg problem.

As a result, Microsoft might attempt to sell WRT tablets as the best thing since sliced bread even without apps. That is entirely possible because WRT tablets will allow you to get real work done (i.e. Office RT with Keyboard and Mouse) and come with a lot of preinstalled software/apps. If that sales pitch is successful, the apps will follow too.. for WRT and WP8.

That is very true its all a guess really on my part. And you are right a unified market place won't blossom into existence. If the Surface WinRT tablet sells for $300 as expected than hopefully that will cause enough of a growth in the arm market for developers to take notice. If the Kindle Fire is any example people want tablets but not for $500 and they will buy cheaper alternatives. I think MS can sell a tablet at $300 rather easily as the tablet market is far from won by anyone at the moment.

Now I from what I understand the Windows Store will have both WinRT apps and x86 apps on the same store and if I understood what Paul Thurrot mentioned recently from his playing with a WinRT tablet it sounds like you will have universal apps for that platform at least similar to the iPad. However the big left out part of that is Windows Phone 8 which I feel like is a mistake on MS's part. We will have to wait and see.