So has BUILD basically outlined the future of Windows Phone?

[Drael646464]

This is what I think. I believe full Windows 10 on mobile will create more issues than it solves. I'm not yet convinced that Microsoft intends to make Windows 10 S its next phone OS, but I believe it is closer to the answer than WoA.

Making a version of the desktop OS, simple enough, and easy to maintain enough, is a lot of coding work. I'm not really sure its worth it tbh. The phone market is at the peak of the bell curve, its about to shrink. Things like HoloLens tech will eventually replace a lot of the screen devices we use, or at least consumer part of that market. Voice will become more prominent as a secondary interface.

We'll have devices everywhere, all talking to each other. Pocketable or wearable telephony devices will continue to exist, but it remains to be seen in what dominant forms.

If UWP adoption is driven up by windows s, and windows on arm, as it should likely do, then windows 10 mobile already runs those. The clear intent of MS is to drive UWP adoption up. Not to leave people stuck on win32.

Of course windows 10 could probably use some fine tuning anyway, in terms of ease of maintainence. But its not clear that updating win10m with cshell and real-time multi-tasking wouldn't be a quicker route for pocket devices, given the focus in on UWP (when the priority tasks are out of the way).

Whatever the case win10m has "some of what they want", and not just the UI. It has simplicity, at a software level, its well suited to the purpose. In that respect converging the OS branches, is probably quite a long term project.

And IoT core won't be running 4gb of ram any time soon either (or desktop windows 10), win32 is pointless on a smartwatch or dehumidifier - xbox isn't keyed to run win32s but rather UWPs, HoloLens and mixed reality don't work with win32s. Whatever MS next mobile device is, after the UWP platform has been bolstered, its not going to be something that puts win32's as the star player - they want all the win32 devs to switch over to UWP.

Windows on ARM emulation layer, is in that sense "transitional".

 

[Luuthian]

The problem is, Microsoft cant really integrate its services properly into iOS and android.

The devices dont come out of the box with microsofts services on them. Most consumers arent going to go out of their way to download onedrive or skype or outlook if they arent handed them on a silver platter.

You get an iOS device, you are handed icloud and apple services. You get an android device, you are handed google services.

I hadn't thought about this much but this really rings true. The other issue that comes to mind is app purchases. And I don't mean just apps but also your movies, music, books, etc. It's going to be an uphill battle to ask people to replace what they already have in place.

Microsoft always strikes me as the "office" guys. It's really the only thing I feel comfortable buying from them. Most of my digital purchases are split between Apple, Steam, and some Google. There's no cohesive set of hardware/software MS produces that integrates things as well as Apple or Google yet. I can't use MS purchases on a smart tv or my tablet so...

Yeah, that raises some concerns.

 

[Spectrum90]

Windows on ARM and Cshell are not enough to justify a Surface Phone. Sales would be horrible. Microsoft needs a better differentiator, hard to copy and extremely attractive for a decent niche of users, to sell enough phones to recover the investment.
I don't think they have such differentiator. Maybe they showed a Windows Phone in Build's keynote just to control the PR message and avoid the "Windows Phone is officially dead" headlines.

Anyways, in the long run market conditions could improve.
Windows 7 support ends on January 2020. Windows 10 and UWP adoption should accelerate in the next couple of years. Mixed reality could also help to attract developers to UWP.
Cross platform apps, progressive websites and bots might replace most native apps. So, the barrier to entry could be lower in the future, in same way the barrier to entry the PC market got smaller when cross platform technologies (the web) replaced native development.

If Google's merged OS hasn't killed Windows, Microsoft could have another chance to enter the mobile market in 2-3 years. 2019 could be the year of Surface Phone.

 

[Manus Imperceptus]

A Cortana focused beast. Given the way the future is heading, now would not be the time to fold that opening.

Given that Cortana isn't officially (and practically) available for a HUGE chunk of Microsoft's customers, and there's no indication that situation is going to change anytime soon, I don't see Cortana as any sort of "saviour" for MS.

That being said, I don't see voice command in general as being the interaction method of the future; it's much too imprecise and much too socially obtrusive, even within one's own home...

 

[Drael646464]

Windows on ARM and Cshell are not enough to justify a Surface Phone. Sales would be horrible. Microsoft needs a better differentiator, hard to copy and extremely attractive for a decent niche of users, to sell enough phones to recover the investment.
I don't think they have such differentiator. Maybe they showed a Windows Phone in Build's keynote just to control the PR message and avoid the "Windows Phone is officially dead" headlines.

Anyways, in the long run market conditions could improve.
Windows 7 support ends on January 2020. Windows 10 and UWP adoption should accelerate in the next couple of years. Mixed reality could also help to attract developers to UWP.
Cross platform apps, progressive websites and bots might replace most native apps. So, the barrier to entry could be lower in the future, in same way the barrier to entry the PC market got smaller when cross platform technologies (the web) replaced native development.

If Google's merged OS hasn't killed Windows, Microsoft could have another chance to enter the mobile market in 2-3 years. 2019 could be the year of Surface Phone.

Yeah it would a) need truly innovative hardware or software features - ie a new form b) need a more mature UWP to run on it, before it would be any kind of success.

Timing wise, that's not here yet.

Googles fuscia is still very much a work in progress. It might be years from release. And when it does, it'll have the same "no hybrid stuff yet" problem windows 10 did, running poorly scaling android apps. Plus, looking at the proto, which can be downloaded and installed, its also ad heavy - the search bar, and product suggestions are core to the UI. ATM, its not looking wildly competitive, especially with all the time lead MS has by being first to market.

I don't there's as much to "drive" google, because even when the phone market goes budget, they still get their ad revenue. Same with PCs - so long as people are using google services, money is coming in. They are, fundamentally a search company.

Apple is a bigger concern IMO. While they have no hybrid apps, they have apps that work on two distinct scales (albeit awkwardly on x86 and arm hardware - that would be a major software design issue). The slow inevitable shrinkage of the phone markets profits will motivate them highly to be on the next curve too, because unlike google - the iPhone is their core revenue. They are definitely working on AR, and definitely on machine learning. I expect they'll have announcements in the next few years that will be equally as exciting as MS, and they have real mindshare - so despite being late to the hybrid game, they still have a real shot. They have a lot of cashflow too, if they spend it wisely while its still coming in, I think that's MS's real threat.

Google does stuff like daydream and deepdream, the aborted google glass, but I can't help but feel they are squandering their vision atm, coasting on the security of their assured income.
Their business model, and its sort of semi-open sourced advertising revenue base works in certain contexts, but I think they have a naivety about that.
Everything about their profit model will change with time, video and voice are more intrusive advertising platforms, VR is far less powerful on phone hardware, tablets are starting to be expected to do more like a laptop now, and I suspect, that apple is developing a google search competitor based on machine learning, something vastly more powerful.

If Apple use their very recently acquired "dark data" aggregator/organiser, and combine it with the contextual machine learning of their partner IBM, they could quite easily make a machine learning based search "oracle", possibly via "siri" that destroys google search in capability. Instead of ranking websites on factors via an algorythmn, merely intelligently crawling the net for the actual best answers.

If they are, as I suspect developing this, and turn it into a service people outside of apple can use, it could actually knock google down.

 

[etphoto]

I will change from Android immediately if Microsoft can get ARM working reliably on mobile! Having a true PC experience in my pocket is a dream come true....... I just hope they can get this out to consumers in the next year to year and a half. Microsoft needs to pursue this with the upmost intensity. Windows on ARM will change the game and bring several consumers like myself back. Apps won't matter as much because I really don't use as many apps on my PC anyhow. However something like this could very well make some app developers think twice about making an app for Windows as they will only need to make it once with UWP.

I said the same thing when I left WebOS, but if by any miracle of a chance LG would release a WebOS phone I wouldn't get it. I'm too invested in Windows eco. That is why it baffles my mind why MS is just sitting back watching the few mobile customers they had leave. Once they start using another OS and get invested in it why would they leave to come back when a new (if ever) phone is released. Some would, but I don't think the masses would return.

Twitter: @PhotographyET

 

[M_A_Adams]

Before BUILD I know a lot of us around here were hoping that Microsoft would have some news regarding the future of their mobile vision. Since that didn't happen... Silence says it all? Anyone want to make their own interpretation?

Seems like more than anything Build highlighted Microsoft's commitment to platform agnostic growth. My own take is they're going full speed ahead with mixed reality and cloud. Windows Phone is not a priority, it no longer completes either of those two visions. It's like everyone else said... the future is devices you can bring with you, just not the kind we currently put in our pocket. But until a full transition is made it's better to focus on the devices currently shaping the market and not ones of MS' own design.

Considering what they showed off this seems like the right move. Windows Phone was clearly holding them back. Without having to commit so heavily to the platform they can invest elsewhere... and it seems to be paying off in spades.

My opinion.... Nadella is finally killing mobile. What a shame!

 

[Sardoc Spamfish]

It could just as well solve a few issues. I have a wi-fi printer and a bluetooth printer. My PC works with them no problem, but my phone straight up will not. If I could run desktop drivers on my phone, that'd allow me to print stuff on the go rather than having to transfer stuff to the PC first.

Also if my phone could join my home network, I'd never have to use cables to transfer data again.

That's just a few examples.

 

[naddy69]

The biggest take away from Build was when the crowd applauded when there was (finally!) a Windows phone used in a demo. The reaction of the MS guy on stage said it all. He seemed very surprised.

Microsoft is truly clueless when it comes to mobile. They have fumbled the ball so many times, they are now completely out of the game.

You can talk about long term strategy all you want. Long term strategies don't solve short term problems. Having zero presence in mobile computing in 2017 is like having no presence in PCs 30 years ago. Where would Microsoft be today if they had bailed on Windows in 1990 because version 2.1 did not sell enough copies?

The so called "ultimate mobile device" that everyone seems certain is coming Real Soon Now is not going to change anything. Putting full Windows 10 and Win32 apps on a phone is pointless. Mobile devices need MOBILE apps. Windows has none. Windows Mobile has fewer every day.

There is no "long term strategy" that can fix the disasters of the past 5 years. Microsoft is done with mobile, and they know it. That is why all the demos at Build were on Apple phones and couple of Samsung phones.

They are even selling Samsungs in their own friggin stores. That tells me all I need to know. Wake me up when Apple is selling Microsoft's "ultimate mobile device".

 

[Drael646464]

The biggest take away from Build was when the crowd applauded when there was (finally!) a Windows phone used in a demo. The reaction of the MS guy on stage said it all. He seemed very surprised.

Microsoft is truly clueless when it comes to mobile. They have fumbled the ball so many times, they are now completely out of the game.

You can talk about long term strategy all you want. Long term strategies don't solve short term problems. Having zero presence in mobile computing in 2017 is like having no presence in PCs 30 years ago. Where would Microsoft be today if they had bailed on Windows in 1990 because version 2.1 did not sell enough copies?

The so called "ultimate mobile device" that everyone seems certain is coming Real Soon Now is not going to change anything. Putting full Windows 10 and Win32 apps on a phone is pointless. Mobile devices need MOBILE apps. Windows has none. Windows Mobile has fewer every day.

There is no "long term strategy" that can fix the disasters of the past 5 years. Microsoft is done with mobile, and they know it. That is why all the demos at Build were on Apple phones and couple of Samsung phones.

They are even selling Samsungs in their own friggin stores. That tells me all I need to know. Wake me up when Apple is selling Microsoft's "ultimate mobile device".

feel better?

 

[PatrickDay]

Before BUILD I know a lot of us around here were hoping that Microsoft would have some news regarding the future of their mobile vision. Since that didn't happen... Silence says it all? Anyone want to make their own interpretation?

Seems like more than anything Build highlighted Microsoft's commitment to platform agnostic growth. My own take is they're going full speed ahead with mixed reality and cloud. Windows Phone is not a priority, it no longer completes either of those two visions. It's like everyone else said... the future is devices you can bring with you, just not the kind we currently put in our pocket. But until a full transition is made it's better to focus on the devices currently shaping the market and not ones of MS' own design.

Considering what they showed off this seems like the right move. Windows Phone was clearly holding them back. Without having to commit so heavily to the platform they can invest elsewhere... and it seems to be paying off in spades.

The Windows Mobile ship has sailed, and it's absolute crap for those of us that have thrown ourselves into the ecosystem one hundred percent. Either way, I'm moving on and I'm not looking back. I have two Android phones which will receive my full backing and attention. All I will have left of MS is my Xbox (which they'll have to pry from my cold dead hands)

 

[RayWP7]

Yeah, it's not a theory. It is one of their goals, for certain. Its easier to poach with a foot in the door than asking someone to quit cold turkey. Pardon my mixed metaphors. LOL. I think the move is necessary, but also wise.

I was a solid Windows 10 Mobile user. I am okay with this direction. They couldn't quite make things work they way they needed to and are playing up to their strengths. In the long run, this might be good if you believe any of the reports of mobile's eventual death, the constant pressure on Apple to innovate for a tired space, and Samsung's own issues.

 

[Richard Toft]

From build I think I've finally understand Ms mobile strategy, everything will be able to make calls and send texts, no sim just a contract with a provider and a virtual sim down loaded to the device or installed cybersim. Then its up to the oems to make the different form factors 5, 7, 8, 10, 13++in devices. Everything is a pc everything is a phone.

 

[Jason Rosenthal]

I've been more worried about Windows in general ever since they put Mark Russinovich on Azure. I'd say the neglect really showed itself in the creators update. To me is seems like Microsoft has skeleton team working on Windows adding minor polish here and there. The general public doesn't seem to know about creators and when someone asks what is in it, I'm forced to tell them there are some improvements to Edge, but you should be using chrome anyway. They can't even bother with a new name for the fall update. I'm not going to "Sean Spicer" Windows up for Microsoft this time.

 

[Spectrum90]

Yeah it would a) need truly innovative hardware or software features - ie a new form b) need a more mature UWP to run on it, before it would be any kind of success.

Timing wise, that's not here yet.

Googles fuscia is still very much a work in progress. It might be years from release. And when it does, it'll have the same "no hybrid stuff yet" problem windows 10 did, running poorly scaling android apps. Plus, looking at the proto, which can be downloaded and installed, its also ad heavy - the search bar, and product suggestions are core to the UI. ATM, its not looking wildly competitive, especially with all the time lead MS has by being first to market.

....

Andromeda is supposedly a desktop OS based on Android.

Search engines use machine learning. Many of the Azure Cognitive services come from Bing. In its current form, machine learning works well in very narrow domains. A system capable of answering open questions on many subjects is a dream of a distant future, maybe 10-20 years?

Apple targets the high-end segment. Google and Microsoft compete for the less profitable segments. However, new players can emerge with big technological changes.

 

[Drael646464]

Andromeda is supposedly a desktop OS based on Android.

Search engines use machine learning. Many of the Azure Cognitive services come from Bing. In its current form, machine learning works well in very narrow domains. A system capable of answering open questions on many subjects is a dream of a distant future, maybe 10-20 years?

Apple targets the high-end segment. Google and Microsoft compete for the less profitable segments. However, new players can emerge with big technological changes.

You know IBM's Watson? Apple has a partnership with IBM, to use Watson in their OS. They also purchased a machine learning algrorythmn that catergorizes and sorts "dark data". So combine the worlds best jeopardy AI, with a software that sorts the internet into file folders.

The intersection of those two technologies appears to me, to be "an oracle" - an AI capable of accurate single answers based on content rather than web signals. I think apple is making a google search competitor, possibly in the form of siri.

Apple also has a rumoured AR project. Probably something like an apple HoloLens.

If google's IO 2017, google is squarely re-aiming at AI also. They said "Ai first". they are building a machine learning server farm for future services.

I think the rise of VR couldn't be better news for a company like MSFT, who across console and PC possesses 60 percent of the gaming market, 85+ of the "pc" market, and via which, higher quality static machine experiences may experience a comeback. If MSFT plays their cards right, they'll be right at the centre of the new hype cashcow.

Gearing their whole OS towards that, and being ahead of that game, shows they have been thinking this way for awhile. Smart.

And I think that's why has google focused on AI.

I mean basically there are two new techs, machine learning/IoT (which are somewhat connected) and VR. It makes sense to pick a lane now, for a company with no presence in PC or console, and no software ecosystem on powerful machines.

I mean daydream is a fun entry point of course to VR, but obviously like say mobile games versus a full gaming rig playing AAA's, its not where the money generally is. It's essentially like apple versus android phones - the all in one, or phone based VR is the low margin, low profit end. It's just not a good bet, going all in on VR/AR for google. AI is also the area they have more experience, and IoT is an area where they can expand into.

Of course all these battles are just getting started. MS has its own play for smarthomes, and machine learning. Honestly I don't think long term, amazon stands a chance. I think they are the 'palm pilot' of smart home hubs/assistants.

 

[Spectrum90]

You know IBM's Watson? Apple has a partnership with IBM, to use Watson in their OS. They also purchased a machine learning algrorythmn that catergorizes and sorts "dark data". So combine the worlds best jeopardy AI, with a software that sorts the internet into file folders.

The intersection of those two technologies appears to me, to be "an oracle" - an AI capable of accurate single answers based on content rather than web signals. I think apple is making a google search competitor, possibly in the form of siri.

A Jeopardy player maps a phrase to a concept. That's a very specific type of question, not very useful in real life. Watson doesn't understand much about the world.

Who would have predicted that Amazon would dominate the cloud business which is primarily an enterprise market? The future is hard to predict.

 

[Drael646464]

A Jeopardy player maps a phrase to a concept. That's a very specific type of question, not very useful in real life. Watson doesn't understand much about the world.

Who would have predicted that Amazon would dominate the cloud business which is primarily an enterprise market? The future is hard to predict.

That's where their dark data organiser would come in - organising unclassified internet data, into labelled and tagged catergories or "concepts". Enter Watson, you have a way to match phrases to the internet. Ie a machine learning based search engine.

Ie

Phrase -> Concept -> Dark data (the internet)

Maybe they have another application for that, but the most obvious application for organising dark data is the internet.

Personally if I were the worlds highest grossing tech company, I'd be looking to oust google, not MSFT. Google has been searching the web for years based on web page age, likes, keyword density and all sorts of arcanary.

A machine learning replacement will surely come for someone eventually, something that can actually match question or phrase to content. Ideally, for other companies, that would be someone other than google (although google is pretty wise in AI-fu)

I guess we'll see. I have my crazy suspicions when I hear of purchases and secret projects.

Like facebooks secret massive investment in VR (not the occulus, but the thing FB has a load of staff quietly working on). I think its a massively multi-person chatworld, like bars and clubs and parks and such where people can talk online. The VR equivilant of chatrooms. But more like an open world, like GTA without the guns. Like one of those "second life" type things, but actually good.


I guess I'd like to be right though. Perhaps what they are both working on is way more boring.

Tech world is hard to predict. Who'd have guessed that the makers of the brightly coloured imac would ever make as much money as they have? Or than IBM would end up making cognitive software, neural cpus and console chips as primary business. Or that nokia would end up a bit player in the budget android market.

Its like a pool of fighting fish. Any one of them comes up with a bright new idea that sells, and it can change the game.