Some thoughts about Market Share and what it actually means

[PepperdotNet]

I have seen all the doom and gloom posts regarding Windows Phone's measly 3-4 percent of the worldwide smartphone market. Let's do some simple math, shall we?

I just did some searching and found that the worldwide smartphone market was measured at over 1.3 billion devices last year and it is still growing. Three percent of 1.3 billion is 39 million.

A few observations about the scale involved here:
1. If I invented something that sold 39 million, I could retire.
2. In the recording industry, how many singers have had 39 certified platinum records? Or 39000 certified gold? In their entire careers?
3. There are over 250 channels in my satellite TV subscription. By mathematical certainty, a large number of those channels have less than one percent market share. Yet they keep broadcasting, and somebody keeps paying for the commercials they run.

The point is, the worldwide market is a gigantic number, even one percent is still a bigger number than most people can comfortably imagine. The people making the decisions about which platform to write apps for, and the ones writing the blog posts predicting doom, and the mainstream press, are looking at market share percentages instead of market share numbers.

 

[ven07]

Yes worldwide, but some users could swear that MS only focuses on one market lol

 

[theefman]

When you take into account that you will only ever get a proportion of WP users who will actually use any app produced the real target number reduces significantly and that's where the lower marketshare number really has an effect on ROI for any developer.

 

[tiziano27]

When research firms talk about market share they usually refer to the percentage of the sales in a quarter or in a year. You are talking about user base, or installed base, the number of users in the platform, It's different.

Besides, I think your argument is wrong because you have to put that 30 million users in the context of the developers, not in your context.
For example, Facebook has 1300 million users, if the 30 million WP users have a decent app or an app that lacks features, or if Facebook removes the app and just provide the mobile website, those decisions have an insignificant impact in Facebook financial results. Facebook can't care less about us, WP users, they have a thousand things more important to worry about, that have more impact in their bottom line.

This apply to Microsoft too, if WP has 2% of the user base, It's a waste of time to focus their efforts on the platform, the future results of their services depends on iOS and Android.
In fact, Microsoft is losing a lot of money with WP, according to estimations, $414 million in the last quarter. Microsoft is the smartphone manufacturer that is losing more money by far. Those bad results generate uncertainty on both Microsoft employees and external developers, It increase the risk of investing in the platform.

Apple Has 93% of Mobile Profits; 650M Users by 2018, Says Canaccord - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

 

[Geddeeee]

This thread really underlines why 'market share' has nothing to do with the reality of the situation, and how perceptions have been skewed.
Different firms use different metrics to determine 'market share' and also profits and 'projected' outcomes. As such, there is a lot of confusion...

The bottom line is: If MS were actually losing $414 million per quarter on WP, then WP would be shelved immediately by MS. That kind of loss cannot be supported. Again reports from so called expert analysis companies mean nothing in reality. Not so long ago, these same firms were sounding the death knell for both Apple and Samsung...

The last word goes to Satya Nadella...
When asked in a recent interview if Windows Phone was here to stay, his simple answer was all that mattered....
'Yes!!!'
Twice the question was asked and the same answer was given. No long speeches about this or that or what MS vision is...

That's all that matters to me, and all that should matter to twitchy WP users who seem to be swayed easily because of threads like this, IT journo musings or market analysis companies: weren't they the same people who never saw the banking crisis coming??? I rest my case.....

 

[tiziano27]

The bottom line is: If MS were actually losing $414 million per quarter on WP, then WP would be shelved immediately by MS. That kind of loss cannot be supported. Again reports from so called expert analysis companies mean nothing in reality.

It's an estimation because Microsoft doesn't detail operative income by segment. Although, Nokia does, and in the last two full quarters of their Devices unit they lost $198 million and $326 million. At that time, Microsoft was injecting money into Nokia's Devices unit through their agreement and was investing in marketing for Windows Phone by itself, so adding that, the combined loses were probably way bigger than $414 million.
Microsoft lost almost a billion with the Surface and they didn't cancel the product.

The big loses are an indication of the weakness of the product. There is something radically wrong with Windows Phone, because despite of the aggressive pricing and aggressive marketing spending, the shipments are so low.
Does Windows 10 mobile introduce new features that could revert this situation? I hope so.

The last word goes to Satya Nadella...
When asked in a recent interview if Windows Phone was here to stay, his simple answer was all that mattered....
'Yes!!!'
Twice the question was asked and the same answer was given. No long speeches about this or that or what MS vision is...

That's all that matters to me, and all that should matter to twitchy WP users who seem to be swayed easily because of threads like this, IT journo musings or market analysis companies: weren't they the same people who never saw the banking crisis coming??? I rest my case.....

You can't expect the CEO to say "well, I don't know if we will continue with WP", because the next day sales would collapse. The CEO could change her mind at any moment, with any excuse: "the market conditions changed drastically.. blah".

Although, I don't think they're going to cancel Windows Phone. If they take that decision, probably they would adopt Cyanogen and let WP die by itself.

 

[tgp]

The last word goes to Satya Nadella...
When asked in a recent interview if Windows Phone was here to stay, his simple answer was all that mattered....
'Yes!!!'

Just a note about this: did we really expect him to say anything else? This is the only answer he'll give, even if it's a blatant lie, until the project is publicly canceled.

 

[fatclue_98]

Market share is a number to quantify some marketing guru's analytics. If "X" country has 100 people and a family of 4 dies in a plane crash, is it logical to assume that country is experiencing a population loss of 4% year over year? Of course not, but that's what the numbers indicate. But it may not be what they suggest. Analytics doesn't take into account any variables, they're just hard numbers that could be skewed any which way. The biggest variables that can't be measured are momentum or "buzz". Microsoft has it and they'd be well served to capitalize on it.

 

[tgp]

Something about market share that must be taken into account is that those with limited resources need to go for the low hanging fruit. (This is a very obvious point!) It obviously makes the most sense for developers to start with iOS (most profits) and Android (highest market share). But after that, then what?

Sure, WP might have enough sheer numbers to make it worthwhile. Lots of apps are already here, which means that some companies see it this way. Others, however, might feel that they will get a higher ROI by using available resources to optimize their offerings on the platforms they already serve.

For example, let's imagine it will take the same effort to either produce a WP app or to optimize the Android app which will result in a 5% increase in usage. Android's market share is about 85%, so a 5% increase on that is 4.25% overall. Providing a WP app will increase usage by 3% overall.

Does that make any sense? I probably have the numbers all wrong, but I'm just trying to portray the idea.

 

[Geddeeee]

Just a note about this: did we really expect him to say anything else? This is the only answer he'll give, even if it's a blatant lie, until the project is publicly canceled.

Judging on all this negativity, I hope that MS DO cancel WP.. Frankly, I can't be bothered to wade through all this tripe trying to look for the positives....
I think I will continue to use and enjoy my phone, because trying to discuss anything on here is met with the same negativity as always...

I'm out!!!!

 

[tgp]

Judging on all this negativity, I hope that MS DO cancel WP.. Frankly, I can't be bothered to wade through all this tripe trying to look for the positives....
I think I will continue to use and enjoy my phone, because trying to discuss anything on here is met with the same negativity as always...

I'm out!!!!

I don't hope it's canceled! I don't think it will be either. But I agree with you on just using our phones. Let's enjoy them for what they are!

Sent from whatever device I happen to be using today using Tapatalk

 

[fatclue_98]

Let's enjoy them for what they are!

Too difficult a concept, maybe tomorrow.

 

[tgp]

Too difficult a concept, maybe tomorrow.

Aw come on; it's not that hard is it?

On another note, I bought an iPad Mini 2 this week. I am now officially and actively triple platform. Enjoy them all I say!

 

[fatclue_98]

Aw come on; it's not that hard is it?

On another note, I bought an iPad Mini 2 this week. I am now officially and actively triple platform. Enjoy them all I say!

There's a belt holster available for the Mini that I used to use and it's awesome. The Tablet Butler