Windows Phone 7's Upgrade to WP8 Apollo Now Unclear

[Carl Bytes]

Radar over lumia

The silence is what speaks loudest to me.

If the likes of the Lumia 800/900 and Titan could run Apollo, then Microsoft would be talking that up. Keeping quiet in that circumstance would damage sales.

If they are not going to transition those devices to WP8 then the smart move is to say nothing if you want to sell as many of these phones as possible. Problem there is that some folks may be a little miffed in a few months time.

I for one was looking forward to the Lumia 900, but comments like those from Myerson have clouded things and I now find myself waiting for a categorical statement of fact from MS.

Today, I sold my 1 month android phone. I want to try a wp7 phone. I will just buy a cheaper HTC Radar over Lumia 800. In case, it will not be upgradable to Apollo, at least I paid on a cheaper phone.

 

[Thuoudo]

Or it could be that Microsoft is just following the Sinofsky approach and not talking about their products until they have something concrete to say.

I'm guessing MS won't say anything about Tango/Apollo until they can give you solid details and within a timeframe that their competitors can't take advantage of.

Or, how about the Osborne Effect?

The Osborne effect is a term referring to the unintended consequence of the announcement of a future product ahead of its availability and its impact upon the sales of the current product.

Pre-announcement is done for several reasons: to reassure current customers that there is improvement or lower cost coming, to increase the interest of the media and investors in the company's future prospects, and to intimidate or confuse competitors. When done correctly the sales or cash flow impact to the company is minimal as the revenue drop for the current product is replaced by orders or completed sales of the new product as it becomes available.

The Osborne effect occurs when this pre-announcement is made either unaware of the risks involved or when the timing is misjudged. Customers react immediately by canceling or deferring orders for the current product, knowing that it will soon be obsolete. Inventories increase and the company must react by either discounting or lowering production of the current product. Either of these choices depresses cash flow. In the actual case of Osborne Computer Corporation, the company took more than a year to make its next product available. It ran out of cash and went bankrupt in 1985.[1][2]

Pre-announcing products in a way that incurs the Osborne effect is an example of a self-defeating prophecy, as the announcement of the new product is ultimately responsible for its own abandonment. At the very least, any unexpected delays may mean the new product comes to be perceived as vaporware, further damaging the company's credibility and thus profitability.

Osborne effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Just ignore the bankruptcy part--MS doesn't have to worry about that

But in the end, I agree that the silence is the best thing for MS at this point. I have no doubts they realize not upgrading 7.5 devices will be shooting themselves in the face, but by the time WP8 rolls around, the 7.0 phones will be over two years old. I see it happening like Apple's updates: Sure, go ahead and install it on two-generations old hardware but we don't make any performance guarantees.

I bought my Focus S recently knowing I wanted the Lumia 900 and knowing Apollo is soon upon us. There's no doubt in my mind the S will be receiving the next update, but I'm not sure about the original Focus at this point. I'm 75/25% in favor of Gen1 devices being upgraded, 100% on Gen2

 

[HeyCori]

Thanks, never heard of the Osborne effect. Reminds me of what happened when RIM announced they wouldn't be shipping BB10 until the end of this year. I saw plenty of RIM fans say they were gonna jump ship because they didn't feel like waiting.

 

[Thuoudo]

Exactly right

If MS says older devices will get Apollo/8 later this year, who will buy the 800/900/Titan II when their Focus/Surround/Optimus is working fine and getting the update?

Conversely, if they say Gen1 devices won't get Apollo/8, who would stay loyal to WP and buy an 800/900/T II when their contract expires in 6 months?

Cannibalize current phone sales now, or risk alienating customers later? "No comment" is a good policy.

 

[jfa1]

Indeed!

 

[Pronk]

I suspect the silence is because they don't know for sure yet what will work and what won't. What is for sure is that not everything will - I don't buy the no upgrade to new handsets argument because the install base simply isn't big enough for that to be an issue, and people like to upgrade handsets anyway. I think it's to ensure that Tango devices get a good Headstart before it emerges that Tango is all they'll get - maybe upgrades to tango, but not the same route as the more powerful phones.

I'm not sure silence is the best policy though. That tends to make consumers assume the worst.

 

[mprice86]

There's quite a lot being inferred from that article that simply isn't stated.

As others have said before and in this thread, it's one thing to come out and not make promises and quite another to say "No one will get the update".

Originally I had been expecting Windows 8 and WP8 to be out around summer (I'm not sure why lol) but at the moment it's looking more likely to be November/December time. That is a heck of a lot of development time, especially with unknown hardware features that may be available by that time, further changes to the economy, changes to consumer expectation and so on.

Also with the Windows 8 consumer preview out now I'm willing to bet that they'll be taking a lot of the feedback on that to apply across all their OS platforms.

I still see zero reason why WP8 shouldn't run on at least any of the 2nd Gen handsets though. But coming out now and saying either which devices will be supported, or saying that all will be supported would be suicidal for the platform. If they said the Titan (for example) wasn't going to be updated, who would buy it? If they promise all will be updated and fail to deliver, it's a disaster, even if only one handset missed out.

 

[sentimentGX4]

I really hope the original Samsung Focus gets Apollo, though, just so I could use my sd card slot properly.

If MS says older devices will get Apollo/8 later this year, who will buy the 800/900/Titan II when their Focus/Surround/Optimus is working fine and getting the update?

Conversely, if they say Gen1 devices won't get Apollo/8, who would stay loyal to WP and buy an 800/900/T II when their contract expires in 6 months?

Cannibalize current phone sales now, or risk alienating customers later? "No comment" is a good policy.

Your logic is flawed and is based on the assumption that we already know Gen 2 (or Gen 1.5) devices are going to be updated. We don't know this and potential consumers are holding off on purchasing all Windows phones from Lumias to Titans.

If they said the Titan (for example) wasn't going to be updated, who would buy it? If they promise all will be updated and fail to deliver, it's a disaster, even if only one handset missed out.

I don't know how many times I say this; but, all the phones of a generation are on the same specs! (Except the Radar.)

If the Titan doesn't get it, the Focus S and Lumias won't get it as well. This type of device exclusion doesn't make sense under Windows Phone like it does for Android because Android devices have a myriad of configurations and all WP Gen 1 or WP Gen 2 devices are practically the same, as much as we hate to admit it.

 

[threed61]

Or, how about the Osborne Effect?
Osborne effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Just ignore the bankruptcy part--MS doesn't have to worry about that

But in the end, I agree that the silence is the best thing for MS at this point. I have no doubts they realize not upgrading 7.5 devices will be shooting themselves in the face, but by the time WP8 rolls around, the 7.0 phones will be over two years old. I see it happening like Apple's updates: Sure, go ahead and install it on two-generations old hardware but we don't make any performance guarantees.

I bought my Focus S recently knowing I wanted the Lumia 900 and knowing Apollo is soon upon us. There's no doubt in my mind the S will be receiving the next update, but I'm not sure about the original Focus at this point. I'm 75/25% in favor of Gen1 devices being upgraded, 100% on Gen2

Nokia discovered that effect when they announced the discontinuation of Symbian before they had anything to replace it. Their sales nearly collapsed.

 

[Thuoudo]

I really hope the original Samsung Focus gets Apollo, though, just so I could use my sd card slot properly.

Your logic is flawed and is based on the assumption that we already know Gen 2 (or Gen 1.5) devices are going to be updated. We don't know this and potential consumers are holding off on purchasing all Windows phones from Lumias to Titans.

I don't know how many times I say this; but, all the phones of a generation are on the same specs! (Except the Radar.)

If the Titan doesn't get it, the Focus S and Lumias won't get it as well. This type of device exclusion doesn't make sense under Windows Phone like it does for Android because Android devices have a myriad of configurations and all WP Gen 1 or WP Gen 2 devices are practically the same, as much as we hate to admit it.

How is my logic flawed if this is all speculation?

When will MS and carriers stop supporting Gen1 devices, then? When they're 4 years old, 10 years old...? ATT EOL'd the Focus in December(?) and we all know Big Blue hasn't allowed 8107 to come through for any phone. Someone mentioned (somewhere) that they could see each device getting two major updates in their lifespan. Until we get solid info either way, even that scenario is plausible. The OG Focus has already had NoDo and Mango...

 

[Mars2003]

I think it's fair to expect support for devices based on the original release date of their chipset for at least 2 years. As a measure I guess that's too complicated for your average Joe to understand.

I'd find it fair enough if my Scorpion based Omnia 7 failed to get the next OS, but if the far more capable Gen 2 devices were not supported it'd be bad for the platform. Titan 2 and Lumia 900 aren't even available yet.

 

[blehblehbleh]

Man, this whole article sounds like some bad journalists taking things out of proportion. Myerson definitely was dancing around the question, but to me it sounds more like he might've been on tight orders not to say anything about Windows Phone 8. Or perhaps there are talks between MS and the carriers as we speak on how things are going to get done. Given the update control the carriers have anyways that could be a concern about pushing out WP8. If anyone would want to force a hardware update it'd be the damn carriers.

If that's true, at it seems to arguably to be the case given the focus at MWC was the lower end Nokia's and Tango, then what more can he do than either dance around or just say, "sorry i'm not aloud to speak of that." Some times people can be just bad public speakers.

full transcript

Youtube Audio

 

[bilzkh]

Man, this whole article sounds like some bad journalists taking things out of proportion. Myerson definitely was dancing around the question, but to me it sounds more like he might've been on tight orders not to say anything about Windows Phone 8. Or perhaps there are talks between MS and the carriers as we speak on how things are going to get done. Given the update control the carriers have anyways that could be a concern about pushing out WP8. If anyone would want to force a hardware update it'd be the damn carriers.

If that's true, at it seems to arguably to be the case given the focus at MWC was the lower end Nokia's and Tango, then what more can he do than either dance around or just say, "sorry i'm not aloud to speak of that." Some times people can be just bad public speakers.

full transcript

Youtube Audio

I have a feeling that current WP devices will get a variation of Apollo that could include a new browser, better optimization of OS to hardware, better native integration with SkyDrive, etc. Basically a similar track to Mango and Tango, but users of old devices will feel a little constrained compared to 3rd gen handset users who might have NFC, higher res screens, etc. The incentive to get new hardware will be there, but from what I got off the interview it seems Microsoft still wants to ensure that current hardware isn't rendered as inoperable as say an iPhone 3G on iOS4 or 5.

 

[djripster]

This is unacceptable? One thing we have grown used with Microsoft in Windows is the ability to run the OS on older hardware.

The other thing is that Windows Phones are still relatively new and people have invested on the platform despite this... It would be greatly unfair if Microsoft decides that users will have to invest yet again in less than a year of purchasing a new device. That would make them worse than Apple, and definitely worse than Android...

iPhone 3GS users are still able to get a good user experience with iOS 5, carriers expect 2 year contracts to be signed with ideally gives a phone a two year lifespan... Even the suggestion that users have to upgrade their handset less than a year after purchasing it, is not at the least acceptable...

I hope Microsoft understands that user have taken a gamble supporting the Windows Phone platform, and that if they fail to look out for these users, they will continue to loose market share to the folks at Apple and Android.

 

[power5]

If carriers keep subsidising for 2 year spans, then the manufacturer should keep the phones on the most up to date OS from 2 years of handset launch. I would be very shocked if MS did not keep supporting their phones since they continue to keep supporting very old desktop operating systems.

 

[ubizmo]

Support doesn't entail upgrading the OS. MS sends out patches to old versions of Windows, but they don't claim that Windows 7 will run well on any machine that ran XP.

We all want more features of various sorts in WP8. At some point these features, if implemented, need better hardware.

 

[Exomondo]

people tend to forget one thing......ITS A PHONE!

That hasn't been true for years now, it's a device that has phone functionality that has evolved from being a 'just a phone' to being much more than that, in fact most people spend a h3ll of a lot less time making phone calls on these devices than they spend on all of the other functionality.
For comparison it's been a very long time since Windows has been 'just a window manager', sure it's still called Windows and it still does window management, but its primary purpose has shifted and its features extend well beyond what it once was.

 

[ubizmo]

That hasn't been true for years now, it's a device that has phone functionality that has evolved from being a 'just a phone' to being much more than that, in fact most people spend a h3ll of a lot less time making phone calls on these devices than they spend on all of the other functionality.

That's the truth. I'd estimate that less than 10% of my "phone" is spent on calls.

Increasingly, these are devices for "on-demand" functionality: on-demand info, tickets, messages, music, video, books, and more.

We don't even know what people will expect/demand of these gadgets in 3 years. Leadership means anticipating those demands. It's risky. What's the bigger risk: alienating WP7.5 people by having WP8 too big to run on their phones or leaving features out of WP8 to keep it compatible?

 

[Winterfang]

I'll wait for official news.

 

[hwalker84]

I don't think we have to worry about WP7 to WP8 upgrades from Microsoft. I think you need to look at the OEM and Carrier. I fully expect people to get screwed from one or the other or both.