07-17-2017 11:05 AM
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  1. Drael646464's Avatar
    Actually I'm going to offer an alternative view on sales of WM10. No new hardware. The Lumia range is two years old, alcatel/hp is one. Only a few of those are carrier supported anywhere.

    In general for a product to sell, it needs to be promoted. Sales of the very hot selling surface pro have dipped two years in. The installed userbase of win10m in the US is 2.5%, but the quarterly sales is 0.5%. There are more win10m users, than there are sales atm.

    Win10m needs a new device, preferably something cheaper than the x3 and carrier supported at least in the US. An alcatel refresh for example, would be pretty good for quarterlies I think, as would something like a new midrange with more than 1gb.
    tgp and nate0 like this.
    05-22-2017 11:02 PM
  2. mattiasnyc's Avatar
    This is why year-over-year sales figures are sometimes meaningless. They won't tell you whether a product is good or not but instead whether or not the product is 'new' enough to sell.
    Drael646464 and nate0 like this.
    05-23-2017 09:04 AM
  3. tgp's Avatar
    Actually I'm going to offer an alternative view on sales of WM10. No new hardware. The Lumia range is two years old, alcatel/hp is one. Only a few of those are carrier supported anywhere.

    In general for a product to sell, it needs to be promoted. Sales of the very hot selling surface pro have dipped two years in. The installed userbase of win10m in the US is 2.5%, but the quarterly sales is 0.5%. There are more win10m users, than there are sales atm.

    Win10m needs a new device, preferably something cheaper than the x3 and carrier supported at least in the US. An alcatel refresh for example, would be pretty good for quarterlies I think, as would something like a new midrange with more than 1gb.
    You're new here aren't you? Posts like this (and most of your other posts as well) have been going around here for several years.

    Sometimes, though, the minor details change to reflect the current situation. When all we have available are high end models, the concensus is that we need low end models to bolster sales numbers. When we were flooded with budget models, we said we needed flagships. Basically, nothing has worked as we wished.
    fatclue_98 and libra89 like this.
    05-23-2017 09:54 AM
  4. nate0's Avatar
    Can't you just change your region and language on your phone to get Cortana working?
    If that is true then the opposite should also be. But I think carrier locality is tied in some how, via the carrier codes.
    05-26-2017 11:39 PM
  5. nate0's Avatar
    Moly x1?
    That wacky 7" cube phone! But was not in the US.
    05-26-2017 11:47 PM
  6. Drael646464's Avatar
    You're new here aren't you? Posts like this (and most of your other posts as well) have been going around here for several years.

    Sometimes, though, the minor details change to reflect the current situation. When all we have available are high end models, the concensus is that we need low end models to bolster sales numbers. When we were flooded with budget models, we said we needed flagships. Basically, nothing has worked as we wished.
    when we were "flooded" with budget models win10m had nearly 10% marketshare.
    In cellphone selling stores they don't even list ram. They barely list storage.

    Bugdet models have always been the best selling windows devices, and are also now the best selling android devices.

    People have no idea what they are buying, and either buy whatever "seems okay" or a brand, from a given carrier.

    Win10ms only really problem has been the feedback loop of mindshare - not enough devices on the shelves because not enough models and carrier support, because not enough customers equals not enough customers equals no carrier support etc.

    I'm positive if every carrier had a budget win10m under a recognisable name, they'd still be selling well. Consumers aren't well informed. You can tell based purely on how little detail there is on the shelf. When it comes to budget phones, people seem to just get ''what seems okay". If Huawei has a win10m device, odds are good we'd be seeing much better sales than under 1% marketshare.
    Last edited by Drael646464; 05-29-2017 at 08:41 PM.
    nate0 likes this.
    05-29-2017 08:24 PM
  7. tgp's Avatar
    when we were "flooded" with budget models win10m had nearly 10% marketshare.
    In cellphone selling stores they don't even list ram. They barely list storage.

    Bugdet models have always been the best selling windows devices, and are also now the best selling android devices.

    People have no idea what they are buying, and either buy whatever "seems okay" or a brand, from a given carrier.

    Win10ms only really problem has been the feedback loop of mindshare - not enough devices on the shelves because not enough models and carrier support, because not enough customers equals not enough customers equals no carrier support etc.

    I'm positive if every carrier had a budget win10m under a recognisable name, they'd still be selling well. Consumers aren't well informed. You can tell based purely on how little detail there is on the shelf. When it comes to budget phones, people seem to just get ''what seems okay". If Huawei has a win10m device, odds are good we'd be seeing much better sales than under 1% marketshare.
    Yep, exact same stuff that was going around here a couple years ago. Although it sounds good in theory, it didn't work out in real life.
    libra89 and fatclue_98 like this.
    05-29-2017 10:20 PM
  8. nate0's Avatar
    If you target the US, then budget hw is more scarce imo. I feel most of the consumers I witness around me will have the latest iPhone of the latest Samsung. Other regions though may and probably differ. But, what defines budget hardware 2 years ago does not fit for today, or a year ago for that matter... and so the life-cycle of components is what every manufacturer is at the mercy of aside from their primary ode to the consumer and what they want. I think they should keep using the 820 SoC until we get sick of it. The 820 should be the budget line going forward and everything after using (834/845) can be for the high rollers, but that is just my perspective. I really hope a consumer focused company focused on Windows 10 Mobile and devices takes the reigns on what is out there. That is why I think companies like WhartonBrooks and Coship see the potential. It is just breaking free out of the gate that is the hard part. With the momentum Windows has going into the summer though I do not think it will be long before we see some more new beginnings.
    05-29-2017 10:51 PM
  9. Drael646464's Avatar
    Yep, exact same stuff that was going around here a couple years ago. Although it sounds good in theory, it didn't work out in real life.
    I'd contest that history, is in fact real life.

    At its peak windows phone had 10% marketshare. That's when it had the most budget models, and those were the models that were the most popular. And at that time, there were also a few know brands supporting windows (very minorly).

    All things I said would help, all existed at the time windows phone was doing its absolute best. If you can buy a Huawei for 60 odd bucks, and a 550 costs twice that but doesn't have any brand power - the current budget offerings are either underspecc'd or over priced.

    Plus, we don't actually have a clue how windows phones would work out if they had the full backing of a known brand, like Samsung (not just a model or two, but a real promotion of product) - that's never happened.

    We can both speculate what might happen in theory if it did, but we'd both be speculating.
    05-30-2017 04:10 AM
  10. Drael646464's Avatar
    If you target the US, then budget hw is more scarce imo. I feel most of the consumers I witness around me will have the latest iPhone of the latest Samsung. Other regions though may and probably differ. But, what defines budget hardware 2 years ago does not fit for today, or a year ago for that matter... and so the life-cycle of components is what every manufacturer is at the mercy of aside from their primary ode to the consumer and what they want. I think they should keep using the 820 SoC until we get sick of it. The 820 should be the budget line going forward and everything after using (834/845) can be for the high rollers, but that is just my perspective. I really hope a consumer focused company focused on Windows 10 Mobile and devices takes the reigns on what is out there. That is why I think companies like WhartonBrooks and Coship see the potential. It is just breaking free out of the gate that is the hard part. With the momentum Windows has going into the summer though I do not think it will be long before we see some more new beginnings.
    Well you see a lot of emphasis on flagship phones. But in any mature market the growth has stagnated. Budget is still growing at a rate of around 30%. Which is huge. Over years, that will basically destroy the premium market.

    The device turn over used to be two years. Its now slipped to 3-4. So its doubtful most of the people around you have the latest phones. More likely they have a selection of phones ranging from new to, a few generations back, of those popular brands, and then some smaller percentage has phones that look pretty similar but have other branding. If you went to a different peer group, like a poorer suburb, blue collar workers, or older folks, you'd probably not find too many s8s ;P

    Huawei for example, as a budget phone have global success, US included. And their growth being what it is, and brand recognition still young, they are only getting started. And the other Chinese players are aiming for the same sort of price quality ratio success.

    Look at something like idk, PCs. Now, you still get people buying high end, known brand PCs. But the bulk of consumer PCs sales are no brand, or budget brand concoctions that compete on specs and price, not on name. That's what happens to all tech markets given time. If you buy a stereo or a TV, or a car now, its rare the person that will insist on a particular brand. Instead they'll just get a feel for it, hear about some of the features, and consider how much they can afford.

    Budget and midrange is where to future of consumer smartphone devices lie. People just get over it. They get more familiar with the other options. Take something like xiaomi - they make excellent devices with flagship specs, at half the price. Lenovo is similar. Once people see past the branding, the marketing, and they will, it will seem silly to spend extra money on someone elses marketing campaign, when you are really getting the same kind of product. Buy the latest xiaomi or Lenovo phone, and you are getting a damned good flagship for half the bucks.

    Windows has historically done better when its had a range of midrange and budget devices, for people like working professionals, small business owners, even students, and the sort of productivity minded folks who don't tend to spend 900 bucks on things "just cos". The "non high rollers".

    I've sold a number of smaller windows tablets, for cheaper prices, to those sorts of people. Not high rollers who'd buy a surface or similar. Now, not as many as I've sold android devices, but they sell, and they sell for different reasons. Its not all typical suits when it comes to cheaper windows stuff. Its another niche entirely, that I think many companies have missed.

    I agree its quite tied to device hardware. Which is why the current budget phones, and midrange are a little poorly matched to market. The 4s is great, but only just getting international. The 950 is getting midrange in price but its too old for marketing impact, and there aren't many places you can even get it, let alone under carrier (still as a midrange proposition its actually pretty good right now, if it were released as it is now, today, it might have sold a lot more). The 550/650 are either overpriced or underspecced compare to its android peers. They don't fit competitively.

    I'm keen to see what coship or whartonbrooks, or wiley fox do too.

    I agree I think they see the potential - an untapped, non-competitive niche in an area that traditionally has sold but isn't really occupied. Even alcatel clearly spotted a potential. And I think their 4s/4s pro/dtek60 move in general worked. They'll probably pull another rebadging/modding effort with the next round. Lets hope they are smart enough/cashed up enough to go global with it this time though, because that would do a lot better.

    In general this is what smaller companies do, if they are smart - they look for areas where the competition is weak, or the market wants something that isn't being provided. When you are smaller, you have to play this way - you can't outgun people with more brand recognition, and more purchasing power and marketing funds. You have to do something different, aim for a different crowd.

    If they are lucky, and play their cards right, they could end up being a little like xiaomi - with their own dedicatd fanbase, and products that sell without advertising.
    Last edited by Drael646464; 05-30-2017 at 04:51 AM.
    05-30-2017 04:34 AM
  11. fatclue_98's Avatar
    ^^Budget means different things to different people. With the app gap, the x3 could be considered budget because even a $180 Zmax Pro offers a 6" full HD display, fingerprint scanner and Android apps. I'm not talking about us, I'm referring to the average consumer who is counting his pennies looking for the best bang for the buck.
    libra89 likes this.
    05-30-2017 06:48 AM
  12. tgp's Avatar
    At its peak windows phone had 10% marketshare.
    WP market share did reach 10% in a handful of countries, but it never reached more than about 3.5% overall. You are correct, however, that it did it by flooding the market with budget (meaning low cost) devices, mainly the Lumia 520.
    libra89 likes this.
    05-30-2017 07:12 AM
  13. nate0's Avatar
    Windows 10 Mobile can work perfectly fine on 3GB of RAM and the 808 processor. Even better on the 810. As discussed over and over again there are heating/cooling issues, but I believe that is only due to how Microsoft optimized those two Lumias. Actually I am sure it is. They are squeezing every last ounce of performance out of the HW. And it shows. Those phones are just tuned to perform that way. The greatest Hardware means nothing if you do not take advantage of what he OS can do with it. The 950 XL today flies circles around my IDOL4s. @Drael646464 you are right as far as price point. People want the most for their buck. But they will get what they pay for in the end (nowadays) not realizing. I have more faith in partners working very close with Microsoft, then I do with a company just trying to make money. Why I keep going back to the x50 phones as daily drivers. The IDOL4s has good aspects, and it definitely hit home with many, but Alcatel is much less invested in the Windows side of the house. All this coming from a windows phone fan myself, and when that is all that is left using those devices out there, it then becomes a very very tough market to enter back into.
    05-30-2017 08:58 AM
  14. Drael646464's Avatar
    WP market share did reach 10% in a handful of countries, but it never reached more than about 3.5% overall. You are correct, however, that it did it by flooding the market with budget (meaning low cost) devices, mainly the Lumia 520.
    That's not far from the current installed userbase in the US, around 2.5%. Yeah the Lumia 520 was pretty big, for a windows phone.
    05-30-2017 09:09 AM
  15. Drael646464's Avatar
    ^^Budget means different things to different people. With the app gap, the x3 could be considered budget because even a $180 Zmax Pro offers a 6" full HD display, fingerprint scanner and Android apps. I'm not talking about us, I'm referring to the average consumer who is counting his pennies looking for the best bang for the buck.
    If most people are not aware of the ram of the devices they buy (given they are no even displayed), I doubt most people are aware of windows 10 mobile, let alone the "app gap", nor I think would that many of them care considering on average people use 4-6 apps (I've got a list of about 60 to cull down for my win10m when it arrives, and I never had that many android apps). The app gap only matters if you really want some app and it isn't there. Which can swing both ways for apps android doesn't have, that ios or windows 10 mobile does.

    I bet the bigger issue for consumers looking at a windows device is that 'it looks unfamiliar'. If it were a little closer to desktop, that might help the average joe/jane (like a desktop screen with icons, similar to android and desktop windows). And the fact that "android" is a relatively known name, whereas "windows mobile" isn't.

    It's changing slowly but the average consumer is still pretty niave.

    People are increasingly aiming for bang for buck, but its slow change. The majority of the market is still dominated by Samsung and apple, even if their growth has frozen, and the other players are rising.

    Agreed that a HP elite is not good value for money. It's really not.

    Ultimately budget is bang for buck - and yeah, that ZTE is a better price quality proposition for sure. In time, that's what will rule the smartphone space. I think in about five years we'll see the market diversify a lot.

    I always look at Lenovo and Xiaomi phones and ask myself - why in gods name are people buying Samsungs....

    What btw is everyones obsession with fingerprint readers?
    Last edited by Drael646464; 05-30-2017 at 09:40 AM.
    nate0 and fatclue_98 like this.
    05-30-2017 09:18 AM
  16. nate0's Avatar

    What btw is everyones obsession with fingerprint readers?
    Ya folks still buying the S8's even though the horrid placement of the FP reader. I personally never or rarely use a FP reader unless it is on the front of the phone.
    Drael646464 and Guytronic like this.
    05-30-2017 09:22 AM
  17. nate0's Avatar
    If some company releases budget/midrangers for Windows 10 mobile, then the consumer would have to know or experience the core functionality of the phone being near flawless. The Avg. consumer does only a handful of things but if any one of those things is half par, or broken, then it ruins the user experience.

    OOBE
    Web Browsing
    Maps/directions
    Camera/photos
    Files/docs/note taking
    Phone calls/sms
    Connecting to hot spots/open wifi

    Those are the ones that come to mind. Windows right now has nailed all those minus a couple.

    Now out of those few things above I can see two from my perspective that Windows 10 Mobile still struggles with, that being Web Browsing and the maps/directions experience. The Edge browser is still some what a Work in progress IMO, but I think it is not totally Mycroft's fault. A lot of the web has to catch up to where Edge is...Maps to me has too much over head. It barely runs on my 950 pretty much killing my battery in the process. So I could not see it working much at all on a budget phone, plus the UI is not user friendly and does not fit the rest of the apps/controls/interfaces in the OS.

    I would say that out of the box just about any android device does those core functions just fine.
    Drael646464 and Guytronic like this.
    05-30-2017 09:38 AM
  18. xandros9's Avatar
    If some company releases budget/midrangers for Windows 10 mobile, then the consumer would have to know or experience the core functionality of the phone being near flawless. The Avg. consumer does only a handful of things but if any one of those things is half par, or broken, then it ruins the user experience.

    OOBE
    Web Browsing
    Maps/directions
    Camera/photos
    Files/docs/note taking
    Phone calls/sms
    Connecting to hot spots/open wifi

    Those are the ones that come to mind. Windows right now has nailed all those minus a couple.

    Now out of those few things above I can see two from my perspective that Windows 10 Mobile still struggles with, that being Web Browsing and the maps/directions experience. The Edge browser is still some what a Work in progress IMO, but I think it is not totally Mycroft's fault. A lot of the web has to catch up to where Edge is...Maps to me has too much over head. It barely runs on my 950 pretty much killing my battery in the process. So I could not see it working much at all on a budget phone, plus the UI is not user friendly and does not fit the rest of the apps/controls/interfaces in the OS.

    I would say that out of the box just about any android device does those core functions just fine.
    I'd agree but also of note is that camera, files and such haven't been nailed. I believe the Saving... issue hasn't been fixed and those "finishing touches" eat up time that no other platform takes up, Edge isn't even up-to-par with mobile Firefox from what I can tell on my 640, Maps doesn't have nearly the POI database of Google Maps, and then we take it's general quirkiness into account too, including with third-party apps. (Dropbox breaks if I enable Camera Uploads, etc.)
    nate0, libra89 and Guytronic like this.
    05-30-2017 10:11 AM
  19. Drael646464's Avatar
    If some company releases budget/midrangers for Windows 10 mobile, then the consumer would have to know or experience the core functionality of the phone being near flawless. The Avg. consumer does only a handful of things but if any one of those things is half par, or broken, then it ruins the user experience.

    OOBE
    Web Browsing
    Maps/directions
    Camera/photos
    Files/docs/note taking
    Phone calls/sms
    Connecting to hot spots/open wifi

    Those are the ones that come to mind. Windows right now has nailed all those minus a couple.

    Now out of those few things above I can see two from my perspective that Windows 10 Mobile still struggles with, that being Web Browsing and the maps/directions experience. The Edge browser is still some what a Work in progress IMO, but I think it is not totally Mycroft's fault. A lot of the web has to catch up to where Edge is...Maps to me has too much over head. It barely runs on my 950 pretty much killing my battery in the process. So I could not see it working much at all on a budget phone, plus the UI is not user friendly and does not fit the rest of the apps/controls/interfaces in the OS.

    I would say that out of the box just about any android device does those core functions just fine.
    That's true., especially about maps. There are other maps apps, and other browsers, but out of the box, it is probably not quite perfect for the average consumer.
    nate0 likes this.
    05-30-2017 10:45 PM
  20. nate0's Avatar
    That's true., especially about maps. There are other maps apps, and other browsers, but out of the box, it is probably not quite perfect for the average consumer.
    Ya it is a shame too, considering how nit picky we are as compared to maybe my mom (average consumer). Who btw has a new S8 ;)
    Guytronic likes this.
    05-30-2017 10:56 PM
  21. Canjok's Avatar
    Windows Mobile has just half-heartedly implemented stuff all around the OS. Even in the PC Version there is stuff like that.
    xandros9 likes this.
    06-02-2017 06:42 PM
  22. Drael646464's Avatar
    Re-re-revised position: Advertising.

    Consumers are swayed by image, not features. Sure you need a phone that does basic things, but the non-technically inclined are not as fussy as you or I, and pick what they pick because ads, brand awareness and image told them to. Betamax was better than VHS, laserdisc was better than DVD. A lot of things are better than coke, or mcdonalds.
    Timbre70, fin11 and mark233 like this.
    06-03-2017 07:45 AM
  23. nate0's Avatar
    I'll be looking forward to folding screens and full voice control about the time your looking forward to quantum FTL networking then :P

    Not that I would mind!
    @Drael646464
    One step closer to faster than light data speeds...https://www.neowin.net/news/the-firs...-just-happened
    07-17-2017 11:05 AM
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