12-02-2015 10:33 PM
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  1. David Fleetwood's Avatar
    Verizon Wireless: 135.4 million (Q2 2015)
    AT&T Mobility: 123.9 million (Q2 2015)
    T-Mobile US: 58.9 million (Q2 2015)
    Sprint Corporation: 57.2 million (Q2 2015)
    While on the surface these numbers look impressive, in reality they are misleading. Verizon's wireless business is very focused on smartphone users, only about 20 million of the 135 million customers are non smartphone. They do not have a connected car business, they do not have a substantial data only device business and they have very few prepaid cell phone plans compared to other carriers. Most of their subscribers are locked into old style 2 year smartphone upgrade plans, and they only announced the end of that model in the last couple months.

    By contrast, AT&T's business is highly diversified. Of the above subscribers, 4.8 million are connected car customers for instance. 23.4 million are connected devices (think iPads, SP3's, Android tablets, etc). 10.4 million are prepaid customers (Cricket, GoPhone, etc). 13.5 million are third party reseller customers. Of AT&T's postpaid business, 85% is using a smartphone. That amounts to 57.5 million smartphone users on the postpaid side of the business. About half of Verizon's postpaid smartphone user base, and only slightly ahead of TMo's market share.

    In short, AT&T likes to tout its entire subscriber base, but when discussing smartphones only a portion of that subscriber base is actually relevant to the discussion. The 950 is not going to be made available to Cricket Wireless or AT&T GoPhone customers, and that is an enormous part of their overall business. Its going to be marketed to AT&T Next users and legacy smartphone plan users on their main postpaid business. And that market share is very small compared to VZ.

    AT&T numbers can be found here taken from their investor portal: http://www.att.com/Investor/Earnings...final_2q15.pdf

    So yes, if Microsoft, or anyone really, wishes to have a substantial portion of the smartphone market in the United States, they need to have Verizon on board. They single-handedly account for nearly 40% of the market for smartphones. Given that Sprint is at this point a lost cause, simply combining AT&T + T-Mobile leaves too much on the table to build a viable business or to build market share that is enticing to developers.
    MikeSo, a5cent, tgp and 5 others like this.
    10-09-2015 01:20 AM
  2. dksf42's Avatar
    Wow, BIG night ... now factor I this little gem ...

    It sure looks Europe will be seeing some serious 950XL and 950 goodness!

    Kantar: Microsoft the 3rd largest smartphone OEM by sales in Europe - WMPoweruser
    10-09-2015 01:28 AM
  3. dksf42's Avatar
    While on the surface these numbers look impressive, in reality they are misleading. Verizon's wireless business is very focused on smartphone users, only about 20 million of the 135 million customers are non smartphone. They do not have a connected car business, they do not have a substantial data only device business and they have very few prepaid cell phone plans compared to other carriers. Most of their subscribers are locked into old style 2 year smartphone upgrade plans, and they only announced the end of that model in the last couple months.

    By contrast, AT&T's business is highly diversified. Of the above subscribers, 4.8 million are connected car customers for instance. 23.4 million are connected devices (think iPads, SP3's, Android tablets, etc). 10.4 million are prepaid customers (Cricket, GoPhone, etc). 13.5 million are third party reseller customers. Of AT&T's postpaid business, 85% is using a smartphone. That amounts to 57.5 million smartphone users on the postpaid side of the business. About half of Verizon's postpaid smartphone user base, and only slightly ahead of TMo's market share.

    In short, AT&T likes to tout its entire subscriber base, but when discussing smartphones only a portion of that subscriber base is actually relevant to the discussion. The 950 is not going to be made available to Cricket Wireless or AT&T GoPhone customers, and that is an enormous part of their overall business. Its going to be marketed to AT&T Next users and legacy smartphone plan users on their main postpaid business. And that market share is very small compared to VZ.

    AT&T numbers can be found here taken from their investor portal: http://www.att.com/Investor/Earnings...final_2q15.pdf

    So yes, if Microsoft, or anyone really, wishes to have a substantial portion of the smartphone market in the United States, they need to have Verizon on board. They single-handedly account for nearly 40% of the market for smartphones. Given that Sprint is at this point a lost cause, simply combining AT&T + T-Mobile leaves too much on the table to build a viable business or to build market share that is enticing to developers.
    Awesome analysis!!! So, why an exclusive with AT&T?
    10-09-2015 01:31 AM
  4. David Fleetwood's Avatar
    Good question. I feel like there is something behind the scenes going on here that we aren't aware of.
    MikeSo, a5cent, tgp and 2 others like this.
    10-09-2015 02:11 AM
  5. editguy's Avatar
    I'm hoping with whatever the exclusive is with ATT that they will be training their sales kids (I say kids, because so many of them basically are, and that's part of the problem for MS) to properly present the phone to customers. Carriers have done real damage to Windows Phones because they actively discourage people from buying one. When I got my 9235 at T-mobile I had to threaten to leave to get them to quit trying to persuade me to get a Galaxy or an iPhone (I came into the store telling them that I wanted to purchase a L925 and that was all I was interested in). I know far too many people that have had a similar experience at other carriers. That's very difficult for a company to overcome. It's also why I normally buy phones unlocked so that I don't have to go through that nonsense.
    10-09-2015 02:26 AM
  6. kwartey's Avatar
    Its seems everyone is forgetting one thing? You guys remember when the 920 came out, Verizon didnt have it by then. But months later they launched their own version of it (Lumia 928). So let just keep our fingers crossed since Microsoft stated this is a temporary move. And also Microsoft is not really interested in sales figures at the moment. So they might rather have it the hands of a few at the moment. Polishing the OS at the moment is their top priority. when this is achieved ,who knows we might see the Verizon or the T-Mobile Versions.
    MikeSo likes this.
    10-09-2015 04:26 AM
  7. a5cent's Avatar
    Good question. I feel like there is something behind the scenes going on here that we aren't aware of.

    This is obviously true. The idea that MS would, willingly and for no particular reason, limit themselves to just one sales channel is beyond absurd.

    Let's also be clear that MS has the shorter end of the stick here, meaning no matter what role ATT played in this decision, MS has no choice but to point the finger at themselves. Even if ATT said they want an "exclusive" or they won't sell any W10M device at all, publicly MS will still have to say it was their decision. They just can't incriminate their own customers.

    Finally, let's also be clear that calling this an "exclusive" is very misleading. If the same device is being sold world wide, as an unlocked device, including through MS stores in the U.S. , then it's NOT an exclusive.
    tgp, libra89, MikeSo and 2 others like this.
    10-09-2015 06:14 AM
  8. tgp's Avatar
    I Am not in the US don't know why Verizon has different frequencies then everyone else in the world. But I think every one that lives in the US should walk in to their local Verizon store and ask to see the Lumia 950 when they say they don't carry it should loudly say well I guess I have to go to AT&T store. and storm out ;-)
    I think we take ourselves too seriously here! I'm sure Verizon already has a good idea of how many people want a 950/XL. They know how many of those will settle for an iPhone or Android. They know how many will switch to another carrier. I don't know the number, but I do know that it is very small. WP's market share in the US is at 3.5% or so, so the effect on Verizon's customer base is insignificant. I'm sure there are people in and out of all carrier stores every day ranting about one thing or another.

    Either way, as was posted earlier, we do not know the reasons for the deal with AT&T. It could be that Verizon wanted the new Microsoft phones but had no option to get them. Who (of us) knows?
    10-09-2015 07:27 AM
  9. NOLATechy's Avatar
    And this is why they just keep treating Windows Phone the way they do. We keep caving in to their disrespect for Windows Phone users. Just as it is for any "discrimination", it's not the numbers that matters, its how loud we can scream. We make enough noise, demands for respect and equality, legal threats, social media comments, etc. We have to make our voices heard. We have to stand up and DEMAND that we get the same respect that iPhone and Android users get. We have to stop cowering to their disrespect simply because our numbers aren't as large. So I say, yes, go to the brick-n-mortar stores, talk loudly so everyone can hear how much we think it's "discrimination" to not support our platform. Call the networks and complain, call the FCC and complain, call the news media, write letters, start petitions, whatever it takes to get our voices heard. STOP BEING COWARDS AND JUST ACCEPTING DISRESPECT!!! I have called VZW and expressed my dissappointment. I told them that if they won't provide me with what I want, I won't provide them with my business, and I meant it. I will leave VZW in a heartbeat if they have no respect for what I want. I will now allow them to dictate to me what device I can use. It's time we all stood up and starting FORCING change in America. We should ALL have the right to use whatever Windows/Android/Apple phone we want to use on any of the networks, and we should ALL be demanding this change to our Senators and Congressman to pass the legislation to make this happen!
    10-09-2015 07:56 AM
  10. Erik Talbert's Avatar
    To be fair, if that 3.5% market users were all on Verizons 40% of the market they'd account for 10% of their total, which while small is still significant in some way.
    10-09-2015 08:20 AM
  11. Mr. MacPhisto's Avatar
    Good question. I feel like there is something behind the scenes going on here that we aren't aware of.
    I have a feeling that a lot of it has to do with the 735. That was in testing late last year for Verizon. It was cleared by the FCC back in November of last year for Verizon's CDMA bands. It was originally supposed to come out by Christmas and then was pushed into early 2015. It didn't hit until June.

    The LG Lancet spent much less time in testing and arrived much more quickly. Same went for the HTC One M8 for Windows and the Samsun ATIV SE on Verizon.

    There's a lot of history here going back to Nokia and Verizon having a fairly turbulent relationship. There may be some bitterness over AT&T getting the 920 as an exclusive when Windows Phone 8 launched. Though it should also be noted that Verizon took their sweet time to get the HTC Trophy out for Windows Phone 7.

    Verizon puts phones through a lot of tests and often holds them if the phones don't run the pre-installed Verizon apps as well as they like. That is apparently what held up the HTC Trophy - they needed to get a few apps built first to pre-load on the phone and held it until then. The Lumia 735 had issues with a couple Verizon apps working when the signal would downshift from LTE to EVDO. I don't know which apps, but they held the phone over it. They won't do that over higher profile devices and they usually won't do it with preferred partners like LG, Motorola, Samsung, or HTC.

    I've said it here before. I CAN see Verizon stocking LG and HTC Windows devices. Even Motorola if they choose to come onboard (and there's been buzz that Lenovo will decide to go that direction). The only way I see them treating Microsoft well enough that MS would choose to return would be if the Lumia 950 series is a great success and IF they lose customers over it and those customers tell Verizon WHY they are leaving. Several thousand specifically telling them their poor support of Microsoft Lumia phones is a reason for departure would cause them to think twice because customer complaints usually only are made by a small percentage of users that are unhappy.

    Don't like that Verizon isn't stocking the 950? It's because of how they've dealt with Nokia/MS phones in the past. Leave Verizon, let Verizon know why you're leaving, and let them know the door is open if they correct their behavior.

    Though I could see Verizon not wanting to stock ANY Windows 10 Mobile device if the agreement centers around Microsoft controlling updates. Panos hinted at that in his presentation. That may actually be the sticking point here. AT&T may be willing to let Microsoft do normal Windows Updates. That is likely going to be a requirement for all Windows 10 Mobile devices going forward - and Microsoft likely will give the OEMs a direct line to update their own phones as well if they decide to build devices.

    So it could really be a combination of the poor speed to make Lumia devices available (the Icon and 928 also were delayed - only the 822 launched on time) coupled with dictating terms on updates.

    Verizon does not like letting OEMs control updates. My brother has a HTC One M9. HTC makes images available for download to update the phone if you don't want to wait for your carrier. They have images for Sprint, T-Mobile, and AT&T. No Verizon. They insist on being the gatekeeper and refuse to give their customers any options, even manual install options that every other carrier allows on the One M9. Phone too hot? Got to wait on Verizon for the firmware update. Battery drains to quickly? Got to wait on Verizon for a firmware update.

    Verizon may be the big boy on the block right now, but if every other carrier gives users options with their phone updates and Verizon does not, they have the potential to lose a lot of customers over time. It's too bad they don't empower their customers and head off any dissatisfaction at the pass.
    10-09-2015 09:01 AM
  12. dkediger's Avatar
    Interesting quote in an article that came across a feed (beware the site is flash infested so I won't link it directly):

    While talking about the partnership, Microsoft’s Senior Vice President of Marketing for Phones Tuula Rytila said that by associating with AT&T the company is looking forward to work on building “connected table” displays at AT&T stores to demonstrate how Lumia smartphones connect with Windows desktops and Surface Pro tablets. She further added, “Partnering with AT&T is executing on that focus and we’re very happy to work them.”
    From MorningNewsUSA[dot]com Article "Is No Carrier Other Than AT&T Ready To Sell Microsoft’s Lumia Phones?"

    Still I view this as more of a symptom than a root cause. Certainly Verizon would be unwilling to host such display areas essentially promoting products they don't sell. And Continuum looks to be a great feature that needs to be seen to be experienced to really appreciate its full force.

    But it is a misguided approach:
    * It gives Verizon - and other carriers - an "out" on a silver platter to not carry the devices. Retail floor space is expensive.
    * The individual shopping for phones in a carrier store is going to either be intimidated or vapor lock with confusion if such a display is put in front of them. They just want to get a phone and get on their way. They are NOT going to be buying these phones for that feature. They want a good phone, a great camera, easy to use, and apps. This is what they need to be pitched .
    * Those of us who DO want these phones now already have a great feel for WP capabilities. We'll buy the phone - if it was available to us. You don't really need to sell it to us - Just give me a means to acquire it.
    * Let me, as an IT pro, do the selling in the enterprise. Let the carrier's corporate reps do it - that's what they're there for. We do need a hands on demo to show our decision makers; but again, you're talking about a phone, a dock, a Surface. If nothing else, send me a demo kit - just give me something to use in front of everyone. Think of it as returning to your (Microsoft's) PC/XT/DOS days where you did, literally, grow out of the trenches.
    * Again, ATT - WTF?! I have literally no ATT signal at 3 of my 5 locations - as well as at home. Despite what their maps lie about. At lest T-Mobile is honest with their map in my area and admit to no coverage. Verizon is my only carrier. I've had our owners already ask about Continuum. I was sickened to have to answer them that it doesn't pertain to us, because, well, Verizon.

    The long and short of it is that without Verizon compatibility, either sold through them or BYOD from MS, will prevent WP from growing. It will not encourage developers over native apps, let alone porting from IOS/Droid. It will stifle global growth: European units will largely be replacement devices and I'm unconvinced by Nadella's thoughts of WP/Continuum/display device as an emerging markets answer to Chromebooks/whatever.
    Last edited by dkediger; 10-09-2015 at 09:22 AM.
    920Walker likes this.
    10-09-2015 09:05 AM
  13. Jay George's Avatar
    Reading through much of this thread and people comparing and debating etc.

    The Snapdragon 810 supports basically everything Verizon needs:

    Integrated X10 LTE, with Global Mode supporting LTE FDD, LTE TDD, WCDMA (DB-DC-HSDPA, DC-HSUPA), CDMA1x, EV-DO, TD-SCDMA and GSM/EDGE

    Cat 9 speeds of up to 450 Mbps with support for up to 3x20 MHz carrier aggregation on LTE FDD and LTE TDD

    Support for LTE Broadcast, LTE multimode dual SIM (DSDS and DSDA) and VoLTE with HD Voice and SRVCC

    QUALCOMM[dot]com/products/snapdragon/processors/810

    Does Qualcomm hand out custom chips to companies?

    So the question is if it is unlocked, how much of it is unlocked?

    Are the specs listed complete?

    FWIW - I'll leave VZW for AT&T if nothing changes between now and the end of the year. I know not everyone has that choice.

    Dumb pipes need to remain dumb pipes.
    I'm not sure why this isn't getting more attention. https://www.qualcomm.com/documents/s...-product-brief
    Dan Liddiard and horseybob like this.
    10-09-2015 09:08 AM
  14. jgbstetson's Avatar
    Just because a chipset/package has the required filters/resonators, it doesn't automatically work. You need firmware and perhaps more importantly, Verizon has to approve devices for their network IIRC. Maybe things have changed, I dunno.
    10-09-2015 09:22 AM
  15. Jayson Philbeck's Avatar
    The Snapdragon 808 & 810 have universal chipsets. The Moto X Pure Edition (808), Nexus 5x (808), and Nexus 6p (810) are all fully unlocked phones, working seamlessly with any and all carriers out of the box. Just swap the sim and go (Verizon, ATT, Spring, T-Mob and MVNO counterparts). I highly doubt Qualcomm made a version of the chip JUST FOR microsoft.

    Basically, the REAKS of MSFT screwing the consumer. My guess is AT&T gave MSFT money to lock the firmware to disable the Verizon components so they could sale this as a 'GSM - ATT only phone.' If that's the case, hopefully a developer can easily unlock those bands so that we can buy the phone from MSFT direct (just like you buy the aforementioned Moto / Nexus phones from there respective owners direct) and we can FINALLY move on from this stupid and pointless 'carrier exclusive / version' of a phone.

    A phone should be a phone regardless of the ISP (because that is ALL phone companies are these days).
    10-09-2015 09:56 AM
  16. HoosierDaddy's Avatar
    Honestly, even if you are on AT&T, this should be really bad news. Why?

    Because how can the marketshare of W10M grow fast enough for developers to invest in it (even just to port their iOS and/or Android apps) if these devices are limited to one carrier in the US (and apparently none in Canada)?
    Simple math. Example: If it takes 5% effort to port as make the original (and we KNOW some take virtually nothing) and you get 7% as many WM customers as you have IOS, then the WM conversion is a much BETTER return on your investment than the IOS version was.
    10-09-2015 10:58 AM
  17. MikeSo's Avatar
    Am I remembering wrong, or did Panos Panay during the 950/XL intro mention that the phones have a Microsoft-designed chipset? Or was that the Surface Pro 4? If that's the case, it might not matter what is in the CPU itself if MS didn't take advantage of it.
    10-09-2015 11:27 AM
  18. DarthDad60's Avatar
    I think the biggest problem with people wanting the Windows phones is the perception that there are no aps. While I can see this is partially true i.e. when you go someplace such as your TV or stereo manufacturer they have Android or Apple aps they have none for the Windows phones.

    I usually introduce my phone by saying I am the one guy that bought the Windows phone and the first thing I hear is "Wow, why, there are no aps". I usually respond with I have have most of the aps I need and I usually don't have to pay for them like when you want to open a Word document. I then ask them how they like giving a game app access to all your contacts and location? That is the reason I don't have an Android phone anymore. I just want to play the game I don't need to let everyone know I played it at such and such location.

    How did it become common place that you let everyone know what you are doing all day? Why does anyone care where I ate? I find that allowing access to those things should be my choice not the maker of the game or ap I am using.

    I think the more people actually think about what you are giving up by allowing access to your life whether you want to or not the more people that may start heading to the Windows phone.

    As for the 950 and 950XL I am not going to say I am going to leave Verizon for AT&T because it is an empty promise. They simply do not cover my area well enough. If given a choice I will leave Verizon out of the commission by purchasing an unlocked phone. I like a lot of things about my current 928 but it will not last forever so if LG, Samsung, or Motorola come out with a comparable phone the the 950XL I will probably purchase it. I, however, doubt that they will have something similar to Continuum but that may too change.

    Just my 2 cents.
    Last edited by DarthDad60; 10-09-2015 at 11:41 AM.
    920Walker and Tyrion L like this.
    10-09-2015 11:28 AM
  19. Brett Sites's Avatar
    My contract is up in November. If they haven't freed the 950XL, coverage looks great for AT&T in the areas I need it for all 3 lines.
    10-09-2015 11:44 AM
  20. VirtualDanMan's Avatar
    Would you consider T-Mobile? The 950XL has all the bands required for their network. I have my 1520 (Int'l version) on T-Mobile and it works great. Have my 950XL on pre-order and can't wait to get it and set it up.
    10-09-2015 11:52 AM
  21. muddytoad's Avatar
    I just spoke with a Verizon rep as well, he confirmed that the 950 doesn't support CDMA with the specs listed on the website, and thus wouldn't work on Verizon's network
    The reps don't know anything. Looking at the specs it does support all the SAME needed CDMA bands the 735 has plus a ton more.
    10-09-2015 12:06 PM
  22. dkediger's Avatar
    Simple math. Example: If it takes 5% effort to port as make the original (and we KNOW some take virtually nothing) and you get 7% as many WM customers as you have IOS, then the WM conversion is a much BETTER return on your investment than the IOS version was.
    Its a little more complicated than that....

    There is the question of what else that example 5% porting effort could be put to use in its original context: enhancements, maintenance, new features, new/different apps.

    In the US, the example 7% WP/IOS customers represents about the difference in marketshare, so a very high percentage of WP users would have to use the app to approach a break even.

    Having Verizon users taken off the table makes that math much, much harder, again from a US perspective. Outside the US, the marketshare numbers are better, but there is still such a tight margin it would appear to be a risky proposition. I don't know what country of origin the developer base looks like, but just consider the official apps we don't have that represent US based interests.

    Just consider banking apps. We all know they are possible and apparently work well based on all the non-US banking apps available. There's probably several very good templates for them available in programming houses that these would be outsourced to - change the GUI chrome and data feeds. Yet they don't happen in the US. And cutting Verizon users out will help this out?
    10-09-2015 12:07 PM
  23. MikeSo's Avatar
    The reps don't know anything. Looking at the specs it does support all the SAME needed CDMA bands the 735 has plus a ton more.
    How many times does this have to be debunked? There is nothing in the 950/XL specs about CDMA. Not a word.

    That doesn't mean the specs might be listed wrong or that something else isn't in the works, but currently there is nothing listed to support the idea that these will work on Verizon.
    maevinj likes this.
    10-09-2015 12:12 PM
  24. bulls96's Avatar
    Looks like I might have to stock up on Lumia icons.
    Brett Sites and Zippier like this.
    10-09-2015 12:17 PM
  25. theefman's Avatar
    For anyone saying Verizon is necessary for any kind of success remember: Verizon has had the Trophy, 822, 8x, 928, Icon, Ativ SE, HTC One M8, 735, Lancet. With all those devices on the "savior" carrier WP has hardly budged its marketshae in the US. The only thing we could count on with WP devices at Verizon is that they would be placed in the back of stores, never promoted and anyone asking to buy one would be laughed at and/or have to practically beg to walk out the door with that device.

    After years of us complaining on this very forum for Microsoft to take action against crap carriers like this they finally did, yet here we are with people moaning. Personally I applaud this move, it wont make one jot of difference to their sales numbers as you could hardly buy a Windows device from Verizon today anyway. So lets kick that delusion to the curb right now.
    10-09-2015 12:30 PM
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