smartphones has reached its theoretical wall.
android is moving towards adding more functions, exceeding of those of the core smartphone functions to its base os.
ios having a great library of apps that offers additional function, is happy to stay where it is.
windows mobile is torn between being android and apple - mostly because of the perception and expectations given by its own users. lets be real here, nobody cares about windows phone, let alone talk about it, except for us, the small group of people known as the windows phone/mobile users.
Yeah I think smartphones hit that wall pretty quick. Problem is development money and what people really want from a phone. People will either pay nothing, and get ads, or pay 3-4 bucks for an app. So you get pretty shallow development. 2.8 million apps, but not that much actual power in any of it.
PC desktop by comparison people will spend 100+ on a game, or hundreds, or even thousands for specialised software. They want that complexity, and they pay for it.
So while you do get new crowdsourcing applications, share economies, different ways of using GPSs and databases, smartphones actually hit their software limit pretty quick, primarily because its a small screen, with simple applications, and the only real money on it software wise, is either AAA success, or advertising.
iOS is slightly better in this regard because of the premium nature of the products, and the odd enterprise/govt development. But not by a wide margin.
And as you say, google is trying to pick up the slack by doing all the core coding themselves, expanding the phones function by using their own money. I'm honestly not sure how smart an investment that is. Google maps might make sense, as does google docs, but past a certain point, your disabling your internal market, part of what draws people to the platform.
Google assistant, if voice actually took off, would threaten googles main profit model.
That's part of why I have a lot of confidence windows as a hybrid OS. Its practically easier to create a system that scale down power and complexity, than create a system that adds power and complexity.
What google seems intent on doing, is gradually replacing its app market, with itself, in open agknowledgement that otherwise the software quality will never be good enough. iOS seems to float on with its slightly higher third party app quality, hoping that one day, people will just spend more and more and it will go up.
I guess the every day user doesn't notice much. But over time, other than 'new shiny, pretty', the motivation for device turnover and increased hardware power is pretty pragmatically thin next to say, a gaming PC, or a windows tablet, or most other modern tech.
At the same time we approach market saturation, and negative growth is occurring in mature markets. Tablets for both Samsung and apple have been in a downward slide, for years, while windows climbs - probably because of these very software development limits.
It feels to me like, smartphones are kind of a wave that will crash, long before the next big thing replaces it. Limited by one of the things that made them popular- freemium models, and coffee priced software. Nothing major will happen, people will just not bother to upgrade until their phone breaks, and buy a cheaper or midrange model when they do. But that must have, high device turn over, high adoption, premium "wow" "yay" was the whole thing driving the boom. Its that same "meh", that lead PC's to slow down (which co-incidentaly are in an upgrade cycle now).
Those are probably the same forces that will eventually drive device convergence too. And of course the death nail will be new input methods, output methods and form factors, which all lie on the horizon - but I feel like the wave will crash probably this year or next, or the beginning of it.
Not without its benefits. The current smartphone has shown us the power of combining GPS, LTE and databases for share economies, crowdsourcing, navigation, social messaging and more. Whatever comes next, will take these and add to them.