Look how the Android community is embracing Windows 10!

[stephen_az]

Seriously, just look at the comments here: Microsoft will allow Android apps to be quickly compiled for Windows 10 | Android Central

Look at all the people willing to switch to Windows 10 just if the app gap is closed....

Oops, what's that puddle at Google's wobbly feet?

Actually, before people get into cheerleader mode, I would encourage them to look at the developer blogs and sites from yesterday that are not already Windows focused. By that I mean the ones they are trying to attract. The response has ranged from mild interest to skepticism to disinterest to outright disdain. No one is jumping up and saying this has changed their development plans, with one of the most consistent comments (even among the interested) being it doesn't change the fact maintenance costs on a low user base app make it a non-starter. I am sorry to tell people but this is going absolutely nowhere since it still does not address the underlying problem. Developers are not on board and have been actively moving away because the users are not there to justify. As has also been rightly pointed out, which Microsoft refuses to acknowledges, expanding the user base to include Windows laptop and desktop users, changes nothing because that huge base are not the same type of user as those who make up the target (Android & IOS) markets. One would have thought Windows 8.X would have forced that recognition by now.

I expect at the end of the year (or if things arrive late, end of first quarter next year) there will be no essential change and the store will still be devoid of most large and small US banking apps, key airlines, the array of other apps travelers use every day, aps for the social media obsessed crowd, whatever the current app is for the game obsessed, the educational apps for primary, secondary, and post-secondary education, and even the IOS/Android companion apps for Windows desktop applications (Quicken, Adobe's CC products, etc.). Again, apps in EU countries are irrelevant to platform overall success - no US equals no platform. You cannot get away from the singular reality that you must succeed where the money is and that will be in the US and developing countries. Hopefully, at that point this will be revisited and they will release an emulator since the no effort approach is the only way it will succeed.

As for anyone who wants to argue that this is all just bluster, I would encourage you to try DuOs (or Bluestacks) on your laptop, tablet, or desktop for a month. Take a look at what is really missing. The gap is stunning and it is not in novelty apps for the easily entertained. It is in a world of substantive apps cross cutting things people do and/or use every day. None of the new tools create an incentive to move. They just make it easier to do something that developers have already rejected. Without an incentive, or a no effort solution, this is just a waste of time that will excite some people around here and at a Windows developer event but have no net effect on platform adoption rates nor on developer migration. They do not need to excite Windows developers to address the problem. They need to get the apps in the store from those who don't code for Windows mobile devices and who do not see it as a viable platform....

 

[Mr. MacPhisto]

Seriously, just look at the comments here: Microsoft will allow Android apps to be quickly compiled for Windows 10 | Android Central

Look at all the people willing to switch to Windows 10 just if the app gap is closed....

Oops, what's that puddle at Google's wobbly feet?

The other one I've heard about is Continuum on phone. I've showed some friends that are dedicated Android users the videos demoing Continuum and every single one of them have said that's a killer feature that would make them seriously consider switching.

Couple that with easy Android and iOS ports. The way Microsoft is doing Universal Apps with web, .NET, C++/Java, and Objective C support, they have removed barriers.

And they've also given phone app makers reasons to expand their app to desktop by putting desktop ability into phones.

By creating the Universal App environment that can leverage the Windows desktop, Microsoft also is creating a massive storefront with app suggestions potentially in the Start Menu and on the Lock Screen. They have shown developers how they will allow them to get their apps out there to the largest amount of users - and they have shown how a mobile app can be much more.

Then there's the pretty mindblowing ability to turn a web site into a Universal App and monetize it through the Windows Store. That's pretty huge itself. It allows for stopgaps to a point, but the web code shown looked pretty good as an app. It's basically a server hosted app, but MS really pushed things forward yesterday.

Now if they can get carriers sped up or bypassed in some way. That would be the ultimate argument. Many Android users now have no idea when they will get Lollipop unless they go and buy a new phone - and they don't know when they'll get an update at that point.

Windows presents an opportunity for apps to run across every device. It allows apps to maintain their state across devices, so you can pick up where you left off on an app in your desktop from your phone. It has a UI that will be the same whether Microsoft, Samsung, HTC, LG, or Motorola are building the phone, tablet, or whatever. It (hopefully) will be able to get regular updates on all devices as MS updates and improves the OS. An enable phone can become a desktop at need and uses two screen display - and I have to assume that eventually it'll be able to do this via Miracast and not just HDMI.

The app gap does need to shrink - and they've provided tools and given developers a billion reasons to bring their apps. This includes the easiest access to Xbox ever, including linking to Xbox Live for achievements that could conceivably even enable achievements on Apps such as Instagram, Facebook, USA Today, or whatever. And they also showed that an app for Windows will also be an app for HoloLens, which could potentially change the face of computing. Time will tell, but HoloLens seems like it could be huge if it delivers on its promise. Huge for Enterprise. Huge for Research. Huge for Consumers.

They've given developers a lot to be excited about. They've given consumers a lot to get excited about.

I work with a guy that is huge on Windows at home but an ardent Android phone and tablet supporter. His eyes nearly popped out of his head when he saw all the integration, Continuum, how apps worked on a Universal level, and then HoloLens to top it all off. If Developers and MS deliver, guys like this will ditch Android.

I've said it many times. Android's hold at the top is tenuous. People use it because it's there. Because it is the only iPhone alternative. It has devotees, but the average user could easily be convinced to leave it. Phones get upgraded and switched frequently and have for years. People are used to changing platforms there. The potential for a large migration is there if the right buttons are pushed. MS needs the developers above all, but they've given them every incentive.

Yesterday Microsoft basically told iOS and Android developers that they could come to Windows for virtually little or no out of pocket cost. They told them that they will do everything they can to make that Windows marketplace have 1 Billion users in 2-3 years. Basically they told developers that Microsoft will be the ones eating the downside if there is one but developers would get to participate in the upside at no or little risk to themselves.

I look at yesterday as a huge gamechanger. It's not going to have huge impact on iOS, but Apple has always been good at locking in users and giving them a great ecosystem experience. Android, not so much.

This is going to be a fun ride.

 

[Mr. MacPhisto]

Actually, before people get into cheerleader mode, I would encourage them to look at the developer blogs and sites from yesterday that are not already Windows focused. By that I mean the ones they are trying to attract. The response has ranged from mild interest to skepticism to disinterest to outright disdain. No one is jumping up and saying this has changed their development plans, with one of the most consistent comments (even among the interested) being it doesn't change the fact maintenance costs on a low user base app make it a non-starter. I am sorry to tell people but this is going absolutely nowhere since it still does not address the underlying problem. Developers are not on board and have been actively moving away because the users are not there to justify. As has also been rightly pointed out, which Microsoft refuses to acknowledges, expanding the user base to include Windows laptop and desktop users, changes nothing because that huge base are not the same type of user as those who make up the target (Android & IOS) markets. One would have thought Windows 8.X would have forced that recognition by now.

I expect at the end of the year (or if things arrive late, end of first quarter next year) there will be no essential change and the store will still be devoid of most large and small US banking apps, key airlines, the array of other apps travelers use every day, aps for the social media obsessed crowd, whatever the current app is for the game obsessed, the educational apps for primary, secondary, and post-secondary education, and even the IOS/Android companion apps for Windows desktop applications (Quicken, Adobe's CC products, etc.). Again, apps in EU countries are irrelevant to platform overall success - no US equals no platform. You cannot get away from the singular reality that you must succeed where the money is and that will be in the US and developing countries. Hopefully, at that point this will be revisited and they will release an emulator since the no effort approach is the only way it will succeed.

As for anyone who wants to argue that this is all just bluster, I would encourage you to try DuOs (or Bluestacks) on your laptop, tablet, or desktop for a month. Take a look at what is really missing. The gap is stunning and it is not in novelty apps for the easily entertained. It is in a world of substantive apps cross cutting things people do and/or use every day. None of the new tools create an incentive to move. They just make it easier to do something that developers have already rejected. Without an incentive, or a no effort solution, this is just a waste of time that will excite some people around here and at a Windows developer event but have no net effect on platform adoption rates nor on developer migration. They do not need to excite Windows developers to address the problem. They need to get the apps in the store from those who don't code for Windows mobile devices and who do not see it as a viable platform....

I expect you're incorrect. I know BoA, Chase, SunTrust, and many others are already working on Universal Apps. BoA and Chase pulled in preparation for a Universal launch. Smaller banks also can use their web code.

As for an incentive, a billion people is a huge incentive. App suggestions on Lock and in Start is as well. It's no guarantee, but Android and iOS apps can be converted over in under a week now with very little cost. And MS showed that the conversion works in both cases.

On top of that, there's the security issues and the antitrust fairy is about to visit Google in a big way. Android has long been a ticking time bomb and many can only say "apps" as the only reason they are on Android. That is a valid reason, but what happens if the app gap does close? When apps are no longer an advantage, Android is diminished and begins its death spiral.

I have said time and time again that Google will become Yahoo 2.0 in the next 5-10 years. They are a single source revenue company with diminishing per click returns. Everything they have thrown at the wall to make money elsewhere has failed. Android is not a money maker for them and if the EU and/or the US eventually force them to not force Google Play and Google Services into Android then Google has no reason to continue working on it. Android is a ticking time bomb as is the entire Google ecosystem. Google will not go away entirely, but companies like Google never survive in their behemoth state for more than a decade. They've been helped in Android by lack of competition in expensive development in both iOS and Android. Adding a third was cost prohibitive. It is no longer the case.

We'll see how this plays out. But it's not merely about the end of the year, it's long term. MS only needs growth. They very realistically could have 200 million Windows 10 users by the end of the year. That's significant.

I will also say that MS only announced some partners. As we approach the launch, you'll see more and more launch partners on phone and beyond. This launch is going to play out in the US in a partnership with the NFL as new apps, new hardware, and new features are on display week after week as the NFL plays and Microsoft sponsors. Microsoft only touched the surface yesterday.

I know Verizon Wireless is onboard with the upcoming launch and has signed up with Project Milky Way. They will be launching and pushing Windows 10 on tablet and phone in the Fall. That will include flagship devices from several OEMs as well as midrange and lowcost Windows 10 handsets and tablets. They are not the only one. Microsoft has been working with OEM partners and others to create a massive launch. You'll hear more about it as we get closer to September. I don't work for MS, but I've heard about some stuff due to connections. They are pulling every stop out for this. They are calling in all favors.

So we'll see. That's not all a guarantee, but this is a move that could have some major impact. People know about Windows 10. People are excited for it. This is the last chance for Windows on mobile, but Microsoft has done everything to make it a realistic one.

 

[jleebiker]

As much as I LOVE Windows Phone OS and as much as Windows 10 is part of my day-to-day work... I wonder how many devs will really jump on this boat. Don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE to see app parity across platforms (cough) Facebook (cough)... But what is the incentive for iOS and Droid developers to add yet another overhead to their process? It's not to get apps into the WP marketshare. Would it be to get into the Windows 10 (desktop) marketshare? If that's the path, aren't the apps there already (for all intents and purposes)?

​It's kind of like what Laura was saying above.

 

[elwin lobo]

i honestly hope you are right and if you are then this is a massive win for MS

 

[michail71]

MS needs to back it up with working with companies of some of the needed apps, killer flagship phones, good marketing and actual hands on floor space in the stores.

With the decommission of the 1520 there are no devices to compete with the Samsung devices.

 

[Tsang Fai]

I think the questions remain whether or not apps that have no use on desktop will be available or not.

Nobody will use banking apps on their desktops, so will the banks be interested or not?

Games will probably be available, since those would be popular on desktops, tablets and phones.

Agree.

I'm optimistic that the app gap would get smaller at least for games. Playing games with Windows tablets/hybrids can be as wonderful as on phones or some Android tablets. When using a Windows tablet with screen size >10", the experience is even more fantastic (there are just a few Android tablet with screen size >10" and for iPad Air just 9.7").

So I predict the Windows Store will receive a major growth with more and more games ported from Android/iOS. This would bring more potential WP users to go for WP. Hopefully this would also attract those non-game app developers to port their apps to Windows Store.

 

[snowmutt]

It is really nice that one portion of Build that Windows phone users were the most worried about- Android app adoption- actually became the thing mostly applauded. It is fantastic to have something to point to and FINALLY say- "See? Microsoft really does want their mobile OS to succeed!!"

There is . as a few posters pointed out already, no guarantees this translates to developers coming to Windows 10. But it is this kind of work that shows MS is putting great minds and smart resources to solve problems for their user base.

In the end... can we really ask more?

 

[snowmutt]

Actually, before people get into cheerleader mode, I would encourage them to look at the developer blogs and sites from yesterday that are not already Windows focused. By that I mean the ones they are trying to attract. The response has ranged from mild interest to skepticism to disinterest to outright disdain. No one is jumping up and saying this has changed their development plans, with one of the most consistent comments (even among the interested) being it doesn't change the fact maintenance costs on a low user base app make it a non-starter. I am sorry to tell people but this is going absolutely nowhere since it still does not address the underlying problem. Developers are not on board and have been actively moving away because the users are not there to justify. As has also been rightly pointed out, which Microsoft refuses to acknowledges, expanding the user base to include Windows laptop and desktop users, changes nothing because that huge base are not the same type of user as those who make up the target (Android & IOS) markets. One would have thought Windows 8.X would have forced that recognition by now.

Stevie.... Stevie..... Stevie......

Is it hard to stay in this bad of a mood for this long? Lighten up. This is a good day. Enjoy a lemonade and some happy afterglow.

We will know by the end of 2016 how this works. Let's give it a year and see if the users and the developers finally give Windows mobility (see what I did there??) a chance.

 

[jleebiker]

In the end... can we really ask more?

Ruggedized handsets like the Samsung G5 Active!

Ok, I'm kinda kidding since that's been a mantra for me. I really hope handset manufacturers look at this and say "You know what, maybe we should start making more devices for WP. What do we have to lose?" I know this is going to take time though. The sales have to be there before the hardware comes, but the sales won't come without the hardware. It's the Catch-22 that's been there for years. WP really needs some flagship (or in my case, ruggedized but sublime) devices.

MS has to back the sexier handsets out there. They have to sell the sizzle.

 

[Mr. MacPhisto]

As much as I LOVE Windows Phone OS and as much as Windows 10 is part of my day-to-day work... I wonder how many devs will really jump on this boat. Don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE to see app parity across platforms (cough) Facebook (cough)... But what is the incentive for iOS and Droid developers to add yet another overhead to their process? It's not to get apps into the WP marketshare. Would it be to get into the Windows 10 (desktop) marketshare? If that's the path, aren't the apps there already (for all intents and purposes)?

​It's kind of like what Laura was saying above.

First, the overhead is not high anymore. From a financials standpoint and a labor hours standpoint, the new SDKs allow for minimal time and money investment. Compiling is superfast on modern computers and the mods needs to plug in Cortana and Live Tile support are minimal. It's essentially cut and paste to replace Google location services with Bing, etc. I'm not developer but a family member is. I was told that it looks like you can turn an iOS app into a Windows app in less than a day, possibly in only a few hours depending on the compile time.

That means if an app begins in only iOS or Android, it will be faster and cheaper to bring it to Windows than to bring it to the other large OS base. It is much more difficult to take a new iOS app and make it for Android than it is to move it to Windows. The overhead is almost zero.

It's also about more than phones, as they showed in the Continuum demo. A premium phone with Windows will soon be able to be a desktop in your pocket. So Desktop apps do matter. They set up an infrastructure that is very scalable and encourages developers to benefit the desktop market - which could be huge - while also benefiting handhelds.

Remember, these are UNIVERSAL apps. One binary hits desktop, laptop, tablet, phone, Xbox, IOT, and HoloLens. You can create a single app that is scalable.

People here like to talk phones, but it's bigger than that. Microsoft has built their tablet marketshare and are expected by many to control 20% or more of the tablet space by next year (not counting convertibles that are shipped with detachable keyboard). They still will be over 90% of the desktop/laptop market with many of those devices being touchscreen enabled. They also have demoed a new technology that many will want to get on the ground floor of because no one else is making a similar product - and it's quite easy to bring your iOS or Android app to HoloLens.

So it's targeting all devices and a wide variety of users with a single code base that can be brought over from pretty much any platform. If Windows does hit a billion, I suspect many of those brought over apps may be redone in C# as the platform becomes entrenched and the economic model predictable.

The phones are maybe 100 million right now. Add in tablet and Windows and that number will climb well over 200 million in less than a year from now. My guess with the free upgrade is that we will see nearly 500 million users in the Windows Store just one year from now. That's Google Play sized, kids. With the global carrier billing and app suggestions, Microsoft showed how they can monetize your app better than their competitors. I watched a lot of that keynote and that point was driven home - Microsoft is going to make the world's largest digital storefront, they're going to make it inexpensive for you to participate, and they are going to give you the best tools to monetize what you do.

Devs will see the dollar signs. If MS hadn't announce Windows 10 as a free upgrade, skepticism would reign because people would have to pay for an upgrade. They don't have to, making the big numbers far more realistic.

If you're a dev and it'll cost you near zero to move your app over from iOS or Android, why would you not want to participate just in case MS is right and they do get a billion? What happens if your competitors are there and you are not and it does take off? Any gains you've made could be lost. It's easy to get onboard.

We'll see where this goes. If Microsoft announces nearly a million apps available in the Windows Store at launch or within weeks of launch, how would the perception change? Not saying that will happen, but I've heard a million by Christmas is a goal. iOS and Android are at 1.3. If MS can gain that much ground so quickly, how would the game change?

 

[Legoboyii]

I went through the comments about android/ios app compile to windows 10 articles on iMore and Android Central. The users for the most part were pretty enthusiastic and welcome the competition. Some devs even want to sign up to bring apps over already! That's a pretty good sign to say the least. Still I hold to my wait and see approach, 2-3 years to go.

 

[Mr. MacPhisto]

Also to further add. Android development costs much more than Windows. iOS costs more than either. I don't expect the iOS development will go away, but from a Dev perspective it would be much cheaper to develop for just iOS and Windows while ditching Android. That won't happen right now, but what if your presence on Windows helps spur movement away from Android? If it shows significant enough decline in marketshare, some Devs could decide to ditch it and focus on Windows and iOS. We're a long way from there, but the point of this thread is that Android users would be willing to switch if the apps were there - and many were impressed by Continuum as well.

I am in the industry and have access to proprietary survey data that I guarantee you MS and Google get too. 40% of Android users express a willingness to switch. It is the largest number of any platform. Overall customer satisfaction numbers for Android hover at around 47%. Again, far lower than anyone else out there. Devs, retailers, OEMs, etc get this data. They know Android's hold is quite tenuous and only exists due to a competition vacuum. Frankly, MS should have made Windows Phone free to OEMs from the beginning because they may have been able to do more 4 years ago. That ship has sailed, though. Still, Android is vulnerable and porting your app is a piece of cake.

Some things are unlikely to come any time soon, such as Google apps. Though I suspect if a billion users are there, Google will eventually have no choice. And once Google apps come to Windows Universal, Android could become dead in the water. Sounds absurd now. The problem is that the public don't love it and don't feel attached to it. Why? There's no common experience from device to device. They just have to choose between it and the iPhone.

And that's where gains are made. Apple will be profitable for the foreseeable future and they will get a good percentage of users locked into iOS. iOS isn't really the competitor to target. It's strong and has a user base that is happy. You target the one where people are not as happy and more willing to move. That's Android. Close the app gap and Android is ripe for the picking. It'll begin more slowly before there's a build and a severe decline - but it all has to start with the apps. MS understands that and that's why they made it easy and cheap to bring over apps while making sure developers could make money.

 

[JSWPL525]

i must say microsoft hit the android central yesterday...all are talking about windows only...

 

[jleebiker]

Thanks for the insights MacPhisto. That's very interesting about the user surveys. Seems like this is a prime opportunity for MS to take some market share.

From where I sit though, I think the transformation will start with the tablet sector. I get tons of requests for them all the time. I think more people would adopt Win10 with the Universal apps. That will ripple to their mobile devices eventually. I think the tablet form factor works for more people as a replacement to their desktop or even laptops.

Whatever happens, it's going to be an interesting 10-12 months.

Can the admins schedule a calendar event for 1 year from now to see how the landscape looks? Kind of like a virtual time capsule?

 

[Nogitsune Micah]

I still think this is the stupidest thing ever. I hope to be proven wrong but I have a feeling this if anything, will not go quite as well and that's why I am not getting my hopes up.

That's not an excuse.

In our defence, Microsoft haven't been colossal d**ks towards Google, so they don't really have any reason too. On the other hand, Google haven't been very nice with us cough-cough-youtube-cough

It may no excuse it but it certainly explains it

 

[Mr. MacPhisto]

Thanks for the insights MacPhisto. That's very interesting about the user surveys. Seems like this is a prime opportunity for MS to take some market share.

From where I sit though, I think the transformation will start with the tablet sector. I get tons of requests for them all the time. I think more people would adopt Win10 with the Universal apps. That will ripple to their mobile devices eventually. I think the tablet form factor works for more people as a replacement to their desktop or even laptops.

Whatever happens, it's going to be an interesting 10-12 months.

Can the admins schedule a calendar event for 1 year from now to see how the landscape looks? Kind of like a virtual time capsule?

I agree. I think we see tablet and touchscreen movement first. Imagine that you have a Windows laptop and a tablet. You use App X on both and enjoy how it saves states and syncs between both so you can leave it at one place on your laptop and pick it up on your tablet. you have an Android phone with App X too, but it's not in the ecosystem and it's not a Universal App. You see how well the tablet and laptop work together, so next time you are looking into phones, you start looking at the ones with Windows. They have all the same apps you know on your tablet. In fact, it is very likely that Microsoft will allow you to tell the phone to get all your Universal Apps from the Store automatically. On top of that, your phone can act like a Desktop in a pinch now. I can even see people making laptop shells for the phones down the line with extra battery and possibly extra storage.

Tablets for Windows also have the dockable aspect since they are Intel at their core. But even new ARM tablets should do Continuum, so not only can your phone be a desktop, you could just pop your tablet on a HDMI/USB dock and you now have your tablet becoming one.

Microsoft has done an incredible job of creating an OS that scales to everything. I think this is a landmark in computing. Apple still is one a two OS model. Google is too and Chrome OS is iffy on desktop - as is Android. Microsoft isn't killing the PC, they are just allowing devices to seamlessly be mobile in those situations and then become more as needed. That's the power of the Windows core and that new universal driver model they build for Windows 8.

None of this guarantees success, but they've got people talking and taking notice. I think they've gotten Devs to take notice too - and Enterprise. Your worker may no longer need a laptop if he's got a phone. Joe B.'s scenario of spaces in office that allow you to plug in the phone and go desktop probably have managers drooling.

Works well for education too. Each kid can get a phone and plug it in at a desk to write, etc. iOS and Android educational apps can easily come over and be used in a Windowed environment (Joe also showed yesterday how well the new SDKs automatically make your touch app work with mouse and keyboard).

This is really big vision stuff that goes all the way down to Raspberry Pi and other IOT devices and all the way up to holographic computing. Who else has one OS that can do all that and one app system that can go to all those places? No one.

 

[KarmaEcrivain94]

Are .apk Apps not rather easy to decompile? I have no knowledge in that area, but could it not be relatively easy to rip apart an .apk, make it pass through Visual studio, and even if you aren't the original dev, get a .appx?

 

[Legoboyii]

@MacPhisto
The reason keyboard and mouse did well on a touch app, is likely because of Microsoft's Pointer Events API, probably is built in on the compiler sdks

 

[michail71]

One area to initially entice developers would be on the competitive landscape. Even if it's a smaller market share there the initial demand from that smaller market could be much higher. Big profits are often made by those who get there first as it's not a flooded marketplace.

Also, if I were MS I'd be trying to send in free contractors to the banks and other key organizations to help with the conversion.

Perhaps this is even a good business opportunity to offer conversion services.