My prediction for the future of windows phones

[EBUK]

WIndows Phone will survive, but in the enterprise market, not the consumer. It has already made great inroads here in the UK.

 

[Visa Declined]

The software they have put on Android and iOS will get people using their services and drive them to Windows on phones next. In droves. By the gazillions.

The Microsoft apps on iOS and Android(especially iOS) are fantastic, there's no reason for anyone to leave either of those platforms to get better Microsoft apps and services.

 

[11B1P]

WP will become more attractive because of W10, when more people take an interest in a shared, cross-device OS

{snipped} The same thing was said about WP8. I haven't seen the marketshare increase.

 

[ajayden]

The Microsoft apps on iOS and Android(especially iOS) are fantastic, there's no reason for anyone to leave either of those platforms to get better Microsoft apps and services.

And that is the reason Microsoft will not go out of the phone market soon. As they make money off other platforms, they will just need windows phone to show their presence in mobile market.

 

[Charles Brown8]

i want to make a prediction. Although soon to judge, but i see the microsoft fails and with w10 for phones and in 2017 to sell the part of mobiles. I hope to refute be wrong but this is my opinion.
What do you think about this guys?

not

 

[Shobin Drogan]

I dont think MS could have any less market share, i mean is that even possible? Worst case scenario is that W10 gets released, nobody gives a shet and we stay the same puny crowd of 3%. Apart from a few OS, we're one of the weakest in market share, don't think it could get any worse.
I think there is nowhere else to go but up or we just stay the exact same amount. the most W10 could increase in market share realistically 2 years from now, is maybe 6-10%.

 

[DCTF]

{snipped} The same thing was said about WP8. I haven't seen the marketshare increase.

WP8 and Win8 had the right idea but the wrong application. Both suffered from the MS tendency to wrap a new layer onto the old layers rather than thinking, "If I was designing this thing for the first time, is this what it would look like?"

The biggest problem was the desktop Win8's failure to take off, because so many Win7 home users were happy where they were. That's not the case this time - there is much more impetus for the home user to take on Win10 because it's free and, most of all for the games enthusiasts, because of DX12. MS has historically shown an almost perverse avoidance of good-looking design, as if their niche was to be the Honest Joe OS that doesn't care about that latte-drinking frippery, but that began to change during the Win8 years. They quietly influenced their competitors, but never succeeded in taking the credit. Win10 is the first OS they've ever made that dares to stand up to OSX and show off its clean, modern looks as a truly elegant system.

 

[realwarder]

Things look pretty bad. Microsoft sold only 8.6 million Lumia phones in the last quarter. The gross margin felt $300 million, losses must be huge in the phone division.

I think you'll find it pretty much broke even. I saw a graph with margin for phone division of (0.00) which indicates a very small loss.

 

[Ushae]

WP is here to stay, if MS continue to innovate on features they will stay in the market. I think they understand this, and we will see in the next iteration of their flagship devices. If the rumours are true then we'll be seeing great things for the hardware (Iris scanner, 3D interaction).

As long as MS keep building the phones and update the OS, I will keep buying them.

 

[jack dempsey]

I think you'll find it pretty much broke even. I saw a graph with margin for phone division of (0.00) which indicates a very small loss.

This is a comment of a dude in other site, I think he explains it well:
"That's gross margin surur, not profit. Adding SG&A, losses must be over $500 million per quarter.
Negative margin means they are selling under the cost of the hardware, and even with those subsidized prices people don't want to buy the phones."

 

[fdalbor]

None of us know for sure what is going to happen. And to be honest it does not matter. Microsoft cannot affort to close down WP and if they do then we will go with Android or IOS. Its not like the world will end. At one time Nokia was the king of cell phones, now they are just about gone. Guest what? The world did not end, something took their place and thats the way it will always be. Some time in the future something will take Android and IOS's place. Its just the way it is. Or something will replace smartphones altogeather.

 

[nohra]

I want to make a prediction. Although soon to judge, but I see the microsoft fails and with w10 for phones and in 2017 to sell the part of mobiles. I hope to refute be wrong but this is my opinion.
What do you think about this guys?

That sounds about in line with my expectations, maybe even more aggressive. I can see Windows for phone hanging around but I do not see it growing at all. The main aim of W10fp seems to be to make the interface and design language as close to apple and android as possible so as to make it easier for developers to port apps (I guess). I don't think that's going to happen.

What I see happening is:

1. Current WP users who like the current efficient interface will be turned off by the W10fp change and figure if they have to use an apple/android-ish interface, might as well get the apps too
2. Developers will still see Windows mobile as a tiny market, and continue to shun it
3. Thus, no real reason for current apple/android users to change to Windows. Why should they? If the interface is same except you don't have the app selection and support, why leave what you have?

Now, keep in mind this question: do I think that staying with Metro/Modern will increase marketshare? NOPE!! The only thing that is going to increase marketshare is a reversal of the aversion to creating apps for Windows phones. The snapchat/Chase bank/500px mindset is very prevalent. Honestly, the only thing I see making Windows phones successful is if they figure out how to get android apps certified for the Store and run in a sandbox. And maybe they will. If they do, I think Windows on phones can grow to 10%+ marketshare. But if that doesn't happen, yes I think Microsoft will eventually sell the unit. The OS may not go away, but I think it will live on about as successfully as BlackBerry has.

 

[Giddora]

This is a comment of a dude in other site, I think he explains it well:
"That's gross margin surur, not profit. Adding SG&A, losses must be over $500 million per quarter.
Negative margin means they are selling under the cost of the hardware, and even with those subsidized prices people don't want to buy the phones."

Microsoft makes a profit not only from sales but from bundling services and getting more users so you can't really calculate like you are trying to.

Windows Phone is quite healthy for being so small and considering almost all Android-manufacturers are making a loss, I would think Android is in a worse position than Windows Phone is... Especially if Cyanogenmod can take the control out of Google's hands.

 

[Joshwin]

MS has enough money.So even if WP fails they wont give up on it.

 

[jlzimmerman]

As important as mobile will be toward the future tech industry as a whole, MS would be absolutely foolish (which insiders have stated the same) to give up on mobile.

 

[Dave47]

About predictions....

They are hard to make, especially about the future.

 

[realwarder]

This is a comment of a dude in other site, I think he explains it well:
"That's gross margin surur, not profit. Adding SG&A, losses must be over $500 million per quarter.
Negative margin means they are selling under the cost of the hardware, and even with those subsidized prices people don't want to buy the phones."

They made a 4 million loss. This was due to exchange rates giving a lower income than expected. Not sure where you get your entirely random $500 million SG&A for the phone division. There is no doubt that Microsoft are pushing low end phone hardware pretty much at cost though to drive market share. But we already knew that, this has just confirmed it.

 

[DCTF]

This comment gets a Like mainly because your Lumia avatar game is strong

 

[kiddori]

MS needs to work harder on creating a great eco-system of products and services.

 

[Guytronic]

Its not like the world will end.

Re-scanned this thread again and stopped at the words above.