My prediction for the future of windows phones

[Krystianpants]

Microsoft isn't trying though. It's hard to find their stuff anywhere. They don't release any good phones. They are too focused on Windows 10. They want to make a BANG with it. Throw all their marketing and all the OEM phones out at once and flood the market. Seriously only 1 carrier has the 830 here. And it's not even noticeable with 0 advertising. They are first focusing on the international markets. It's almost impossible to find their phones unless you buy them online. My brother had to buy his 925 from overseas. There's no phones here, so yah it's not going to gain much share. They don't care right now.

Windows 10 has always been the primary objective. My guess is the incremental updates were there to help the platform maintain the current user base and possibly grow it. It also showed off what Microsoft is capable of. I mean the first Windows 8 was not that great. They saw other competitor phones, they know what they are capable of, but they didn't include a lot of features because they just wanted to show it off. Now 8.1.1 has enough features to keep more people from jumping ship. The UI is truly a breakthrough in how you interact with phones. I have all 3 and i'm not biased. I know friends who really like the Windows UI too.

And their market share has grown. Maybe not much but still enough. They attack the smaller markets and then take on the bigger ones. Even Google notices that the budget phones have been getting Microsoft lots of users. International markets are much better than North America no doubt.

Look at the first Xbox, Microsoft lost billions on it. But they were determined to get into the console market. The xbox 360 helped them get more market share and even overtake Nintendo. Now it's between Sony and Microsoft. Microsoft keeps trying until they get it right. This time listening to the users which is a huge difference from Apple or Google.

Heck, look at Google, they struggled for a while before they became big. It was once OEMs started flooding the market that things took off for them.

I think if they get Windows 10 right and get the OEMs and lots of flagships. It may take off. We won't know what the final Windows 10 design looks like. I'm hoping it's something similar to this.

 

[Don Geronimo]

I've always been curious whenever I see a "concept" with a bottom status bar: When did it become so hard to swipe down over the years from the top of the phone?

Also:

For a content-first design philosophy, both of those screenshots you propose make no sense to do in this context: Viewers of print/digital media in languages that move left-to-right, top-to-bottom (English, most languages, Japanese or Chinese written horizontally), have visual focus in an F shape. That is, your natural priority when looking at the screen forms the top of the F along the media and trails down along the left edge of the media with a little peek at the center. Right-to-left, top-to-bottom languages (Arabic, for example) have focus as a flipped F, with the focus on the right side moving down. Should phones ever read top-to-bottom, right-to-left, (Japanese/Chinese written vertically), it would be an F rotated 90-degrees clockwise.

With this thought in mind, why would we put the status bar in the place in all three possible F foci I listed on the bottom where nobody intuitively looks when scanning a piece of print/digital media (in this case a phone), and why would we put a static "Start, Programs, Files, Search" in a place that's high focus and should contain dynamic, new information?

 

[colinkiama]

Microsoft isn't trying though. It's hard to find their stuff anywhere. They don't release any good phones. They are too focused on Windows 10. They want to make a BANG with it. Throw all their marketing and all the OEM phones out at once and flood the market. Seriously only 1 carrier has the 830 here. And it's not even noticeable with 0 advertising. They are first focusing on the international markets. It's almost impossible to find their phones unless you buy them online. My brother had to buy his 925 from overseas. There's no phones here, so yah it's not going to gain much share. They don't care right now.

Windows 10 has always been the primary objective. My guess is the incremental updates were there to help the platform maintain the current user base and possibly grow it. It also showed off what Microsoft is capable of. I mean the first Windows 8 was not that great. They saw other competitor phones, they know what they are capable of, but they didn't include a lot of features because they just wanted to show it off. Now 8.1.1 has enough features to keep more people from jumping ship. The UI is truly a breakthrough in how you interact with phones. I have all 3 and i'm not biased. I know friends who really like the Windows UI too.

And their market share has grown. Maybe not much but still enough. They attack the smaller markets and then take on the bigger ones. Even Google notices that the budget phones have been getting Microsoft lots of users. International markets are much better than North America no doubt.

Look at the first Xbox, Microsoft lost billions on it. But they were determined to get into the console market. The xbox 360 helped them get more market share and even overtake Nintendo. Now it's between Sony and Microsoft. Microsoft keeps trying until they get it right. This time listening to the users which is a huge difference from Apple or Google.

Heck, look at Google, they struggled for a while before they became big. It was once OEMs started flooding the market that things took off for them.

I think if they get Windows 10 right and get the OEMs and lots of flagships. It may take off. We won't know what the final Windows 10 design looks like. I'm hoping it's something similar to this.

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1) Microsoft probably know that wp 8.1 isn't up to the standard of lollipop and ios 8.3. So they have to go all in with windows 10. Better than wasting money right?
2) you are totally right about marketing. Especially in the US. The surface pro 3 never magically became popular, Microsoft had to make great ads but for wp their ads in the US are just not as good. I understand that cortana is supposed to be the feature that we all love but there is more to windows phone than cortana and the camera but Microsoft aren't showcasing it. Maybe they will in windows 10. Maybe...

 

[KhawarNadeem]

Well I believe a METEOR will strike the Atlantic Ocean where the lost continent of Atlantis lies in 2016 and cause Apple to split itself into two and sell the MacBook brand to Exxon for reasons unbeknownst to us..

......... I love you.

 

[jack dempsey]

They made a 4 million loss. This was due to exchange rates giving a lower income than expected. Not sure where you get your entirely random $500 million SG&A for the phone division. There is no doubt that Microsoft are pushing low end phone hardware pretty much at cost though to drive market share. But we already knew that, this has just confirmed it.

That's gross margin, not loss.
$500 million is optimistic, the loss could be bigger than that. Nokia alone was over $700 million of SG&A in the Devices division and Microsoft was also spending by itself.

As important as mobile will be toward the future tech industry as a whole, MS would be absolutely foolish (which insiders have stated the same) to give up on mobile.

Does Microsoft need a mobile operating system? They don't make money with the operating system, and they have good apps on Android and iOS.

 

[Krystianpants]

I've always been curious whenever I see a "concept" with a bottom status bar: When did it become so hard to swipe down over the years from the top of the phone?

Also:

For a content-first design philosophy, both of those screenshots you propose make no sense to do in this context: Viewers of print/digital media in languages that move left-to-right, top-to-bottom (English, most languages, Japanese or Chinese written horizontally), have visual focus in an F shape. That is, your natural priority when looking at the screen forms the top of the F along the media and trails down along the left edge of the media with a little peek at the center. Right-to-left, top-to-bottom languages (Arabic, for example) have focus as a flipped F, with the focus on the right side moving down. Should phones ever read top-to-bottom, right-to-left, (Japanese/Chinese written vertically), it would be an F rotated 90-degrees clockwise.

With this thought in mind, why would we put the status bar in the place in all three possible F foci I listed on the bottom where nobody intuitively looks when scanning a piece of print/digital media (in this case a phone), and why would we put a static "Start, Programs, Files, Search" in a place that's high focus and should contain dynamic, new information?

The main point is the design pattern of the tiles, the interactive ability with the larger tiles, among other things. This isn't perfect but with tweaking it can be made better no doubt. I do prefer the scrollable action items rather than the collapse method that is currently in windows 10. Whenever I collapse the items it just looks so ugly and feels wrong. Granted I haven't tried the method proposed in the concept, so maybe that would be even worse. Who knows.

 

[Don Geronimo]

The main point is the design pattern of the tiles, the interactive ability with the larger tiles, among other things. This isn't perfect but with tweaking it can be made better no doubt. I do prefer the scrollable action items rather than the collapse method that is currently in windows 10. Whenever I collapse the items it just looks so ugly and feels wrong. Granted I haven't tried the method proposed in the concept, so maybe that would be even worse. Who knows.

I doubt the main point is the design pattern of the tiles, otherwise the other graphic concepts would've been separated into their own ideas instead of lumped into one "concept" Windows Phone OS.

Specifically with the interactive ability of larger tiles, it's hard to tell in a concept, but those "interactive" larger live tile buttons in the live tile would be hard to push considering their size, not to mention what if scrolling upwards or downwards was happening, and a thumb/finger just happens to press on one of those interaction buttons? I think the rumored 3D Touch MixView model would work better (kinda like the little pop view that happens when you double-tap the Xbox button on the Xbox One). It would trade the instant usability of the concept (a gesture or some hold movement would need to happen to trigger said MixView), but it would give larger live tiles more content area instead of being used by action chrome, and would remedy the accidental interaction press.

That's gross margin, not loss.
$500 million is optimistic, the loss could be bigger than that. Nokia alone was over $700 million of SG&A in the Devices division and Microsoft was also spending by itself.

Does Microsoft need a mobile operating system? They don't make money with the operating system, and they have good apps on Android and iOS.

I find it confoundingly funny when talking about money losses for big businesses like Microsoft. Sure, the numbers quoted are really large and are really significant. But, really, it would hurt to see numbers like that, but that amount seems like a drop in the bucket for a company like Microsoft. To even talk about those kinds of losses just seems really funny.

As for Microsoft's need for a mobile operating system, yes, I think they do. They don't make money with the OS, sure, but neither does anyone, really. Android and iOS have good apps, but so does Windows Phone. Because of Microsoft's plan to eventually make Windows-as-a-Service and a One Windows platform, they need a mobile operating system to achieve that (not to mention, as it stands right now, looks like Phones and Small tablets are getting the same OS in W10)

 

[Krystianpants]

So one of my friends is an iPhone 6 lover who believes the design is just amazing and talks about the details of the phone all the time. She saw this today and said that she would buy it just because of how pretty it was. I bet a lot of people would.











As I was saying. The phone style is a major reason people buy. Techies may not care but the majority of people do.

 

[Blkacesvf41]

So one of my friends is an iPhone 6 lover who believes the design is just amazing and talks about the details of the phone all the time. She saw this today and said that she would buy it just because of how pretty it was. I bet a lot of people would.

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As I was saying. The phone style is a major reason people buy. Techies may not care but the majority of people do.

Sweet lord! Are these for real? Or are they renderings of someone's dream phone? How did I miss this?

 

[Loco5150]

I freaking love board of Nokia for playing the game so well... They were able to dump the mobile division to MS and for good 7bn and with terms that left them keeping everything that has value...

That said, I think MS cant afford to get out from the mobile space, they know it and that's why they had to buy it. Well, of course not everyone agreed on it at MS, Ballmer already had to go.

The space between phone, tablet and desktop OS's will keep getting closer and MS has no other choice but to ride this out. They will succeed to some extent. Might take some time and money, but the user base will get bigger.

 

[xandros9]

I freaking love board of Nokia for playing the game so well... They were able to dump the mobile division to MS and for good 7bn and with terms that left them keeping everything that has value...

You think the people and all the mobile related facilities, etc were worthless?

 

[Krystianpants]

Sweet lord! Are these for real? Or are they renderings of someone's dream phone? How did I miss this?

I wish. If Microsoft made this phone it would be a game changer. It looks so damn good hehe. Hopefully they have seen it and have taken a liking. I don't like the current look of their phones. The 830 looks nice but it's still nothing compared to this beauty.

 

[Charles Brown8]

So one of my friends is an iPhone 6 lover who believes the design is just amazing and talks about the details of the phone all the time. She saw this today and said that she would buy it just because of how pretty it was. I bet a lot of people would.

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As I was saying. The phone style is a major reason people buy. Techies may not care but the majority of people do.

This would make me come off my Icon! Nice looking phone for sure.

 

[jack dempsey]

I find it confoundingly funny when talking about money losses for big businesses like Microsoft. Sure, the numbers quoted are really large and are really significant. But, really, it would hurt to see numbers like that, but that amount seems like a drop in the bucket for a company like Microsoft. To even talk about those kinds of losses just seems really funny.

As for Microsoft's need for a mobile operating system, yes, I think they do. They don't make money with the OS, sure, but neither does anyone, really. Android and iOS have good apps, but so does Windows Phone. Because of Microsoft's plan to eventually make Windows-as-a-Service and a One Windows platform, they need a mobile operating system to achieve that (not to mention, as it stands right now, looks like Phones and Small tablets are getting the same OS in W10)

In the earnings call the CEO disclosed the exact OPEX run rate of the phone division: $2.5 billion. So, the loss of the phone division was $629 million in the last quarter. That's not funny, It's more than 12.5% of Microsoft's income, and It's not sustainable in the long run, at the current valuation that loss stream is worth $50 billion dollars. They don't expect the situation to improve substantially and dropped the guidance of break even for FY16, without a new guidance.

If Windows 10 for phones doesn't take off Microsoft has to start producing Android phones. I think first they will add support for Android apps to Windows and try to build an Android app store, if that works, AOSP, if not, Google Android.

Sad times for us, the end of WP is near.

 

[Dusan Randj]

So one of my friends is an iPhone 6 lover who believes the design is just amazing and talks about the details of the phone all the time. She saw this today and said that she would buy it just because of how pretty it was. I bet a lot of people would.

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As I was saying. The phone style is a major reason people buy. Techies may not care but the majority of people do.

People seems to like this kind of deaign so MSFT should go with something like this. For me, it's too much Samsung looking and wouldn't like it, bit mass are more important.

 

[Guytronic]

For me, it's too much Samsung looking and wouldn't like it, bit mass are more important.

Had the same thought here.
Looks just like a Samsung...not that it's a bad design.

I also like a phone with some thickness to the casing.

 

[Loco5150]

You think the people and all the mobile related facilities, etc were worthless?

Basically yes. Very hard to turn around anymore. Nokia was too far gone, poor management had ruined the company and it was too big to turn around. Laying all those people off and closing the factories would have been very costly and Nokia most likely would have gone bankrupt. Apple is basically the only one doing well in mobile phone space.

Nokia kept everything that mattered. I hope we will see them back in consumer electronics. It wont be phones in sure, for those they will do as with N1, but since they kept the r&d, I hope they will come up with the next big thing and that they will make themselves.

 

[Kodiak12]

Oh my. Having only recently escaped the clutches of iOS after 5 years, I now learn my jump to MS will be short lived. :shocked: I however chose to remain optimistic. The fact that tickets for the upcoming Build conference sold out in less than an hour tells me developers share the same optimism of Win10/Universal apps. I can't help but feel that something "interesting" is coming and developers will bring it to us.

Keep in mind I once predicted that nobody would ever pay $1.19 for a bottle of water and the internet was only a fad.

 

[Spectrum90]

In the earnings call the CEO disclosed the exact OPEX run rate of the phone division: $2.5 billion. So, the loss of the phone division was $629 million in the last quarter. That's not funny, It's more than 12.5% of Microsoft's income, and It's not sustainable in the long run, at the current valuation that loss stream is worth $50 billion dollars. They don't expect the situation to improve substantially and dropped the guidance of break even for FY16, without a new guidance.

If Windows 10 for phones doesn't take off Microsoft has to start producing Android phones. I think first they will add support for Android apps to Windows and try to build an Android app store, if that works, AOSP, if not, Google Android.

Sad times for us, the end of WP is near.

Things are worse than I thought.

 

[Loco5150]

Oh my. Having only recently escaped the clutches of iOS after 5 years, I now learn my jump to MS will be short lived. :shocked: I however chose to remain optimistic. The fact that tickets for the upcoming Build conference sold out in less than an hour tells me developers share the same optimism of Win10/Universal apps. I can't help but feel that something "interesting" is coming and developers will bring it to us.

Keep in mind I once predicted that nobody would ever pay $1.19 for a bottle of water and the internet was only a fad.

I dont think MS will drop WP. They have the money to keep pushing until it gaines more momentum.