W10M release dates? Answers inside...

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a5cent

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Please discuss official and rumoured release dates for all things related to W10M (hardware and software) here! This first post will be updated as new information becomes available:

WhatOfficially AnnouncedComments
Lumia 950
Lumia 950XL
Lumia 550
October 6th 2015The devices can already be preordered in many markets. The specific launch date varies by region. The high-end devices will not be available in all markets where Lumias are traditionally sold however.

Launch dates by region (just a few examples):

Germany: November 28th 2015
India: November 30th
USA (AT&T): November 17th/20th
USA (MS Stores): November 26th
Ireland: December 4th
W10M is shipped to OEMs (RTM)November 16th 2015Build 10586 is what will be shipping on 950/XL/550 devices.
source

WCentral was told that 10586 was shipped to carriers for testing sometime during the first week of November.
source

According to Microsoft, W10M 's official release date was November 16th 2015.

10586 will not be the build MS uses to update the first wave of WP8.1 devices OTA, as it didn't prove stable enough for widespread distribution to WP8.1 devices.
W10M final distributed OTA via carriers for your current WP8.1 deviceMarch 17th 2016We've thought for many months that devices will be updated in batches/waves. The initial list mentioning which devices will be updated first leaked months ago, but is no longer available on MS' website. This list now appears to have been incorrect.

On March 17th MS released a new list of supported devices, while implying that the new list is conclusive and that there will be not further models added to that list in the future. Reporting on this issue has been all over the place, but the consensus appears to be that if your device isn't on that list, it won't officially receive W10M from MS. There may be an exception here or there, e.g. Verizon's Icon, but you probably shouldn't expect it.

In the process of building W10M, MS has re-architecture their mobile OS to support an improved update process that doesn't require the same extent of carrier participation (many would say interference). While there is no promise that carriers will never hold back a WM update again, such interference is expected to become very rare (to non-existent) going forward. This is only true of devices already running W10M however! In other words, the update from WP8.1 to W10M is still subject to the rules of any update to WP8.x, meaning update availability is dependent on region and carrier, so even if your device model is on the list to receive W10M, it may still be a while before you receive it.

The first devices started receiving W10M OTA on March 17th. These were mostly unbranded devices.

Some devices will not be updated at all. See post #2 for more.
 
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a5cent

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Which devices will not be updated to W10M (Windows 10 Mobile):

W10M can not be installed on devices running WP7.x.

W10M can not be installed on on devices with only 4GB of storage. Affected models are:

  • Alcatel One Touch Pixi 3 Series Handsets (Windows Models)
  • Nokia 530 *
  • HTC 8S
  • Blu Win JR
  • Blu Win JR LTE
  • Yezz Billy 4
  • Karbonn Titanium Wind W4
  • Kazam Thunder 340W
MS currently doesn't have plans to officially update devices with 512MB of RAM to W10M. This wasn't mentioned until the day of the release, so this was a bit of a surprise. While this hasn't been officially announced, it's been made clear by reputable MS employees via twitter.

Upgrading to W10M from WP8.1 is only possible on devices running the latest version of WP8.1 (on Lumia devices that is the Denim update).

In post #1 I already linked to the list of devices officially being upgraded to W10M. However, confusion abounds whether that list is conclusive, or if MS will add to it over time (e.g. what the plans are for Verizon's Icon).

Almost all devices should technically be able to run W10M (even those with only 512 MB of RAM), so even if you don't end up getting W10M officially, you may still be able to get it through the insider preview. However, MS recently made changes to the list of devices supported through the insider preview program, so you may stop receiving W10M updates through that channel even if it has worked for you so far.

Finally, some WP8.1 devices have been abandoned by their OEM, and won't receive W10M for that reason. Most of the abandoned devices are built by very small and practically irrelevant OEMs (irrelevant based on sales volume), but there are a few larger, non-participating OEMs too, some examples being:

CountryPhone ROMBrandModelRelease
global / world wideallKazamThunder 450Never (OEM not participating)
allKazamThunder 450WLNever (OEM not participating)
allSamsungATIV SNever (speculative, OEM not participating)
allYezzBilly 4.7Never (OEM not participating)
allHTC8xNever (OEM not participating)

Despite this long list of device models that are excluded from officially being updated to W10M, over 50% of all WP8.1 devices will eventually receive W10M. Take that simply as a matter of fact, rather than a judgement of MS' efforts. There are plenty of other threads discussing whether that is good enough or an utter failure.
 
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mprebich

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Can we assume/expect, from your first table, that UNLOCKED international version phones would be included in the "RTM (W10M final released to OEMs)"?

As with Windows 10, the final technical preview build 10240 was essentially the RTM build.
 

a5cent

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Can we assume/expect, from your first table, that UNLOCKED international version phones would be included in the "RTM (W10M final released to OEMs)"?
As with Windows 10, the final technical preview build 10240 was essentially the RTM build.
Nope. Such devices are practically guaranteed to receive the update. However, they typically aren't the first devices to receive any given update. There are good reasons for that, but I won't get into that now.
 

Rich Reeves

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Thanks for the info.

Do Microsoft have any Conference/Trade Show etc. in the diary, that the announcements of the actual release dates and specs are due to be/anticipated to be made at yet?
 

a5cent

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Thanks for the info.

Do Microsoft have any Conference/Trade Show etc. in the diary, that the announcements of the actual release dates and specs are due to be/anticipated to be made at yet?

Last I heard they are expected to hold their own launch event, not involving any trade shows.
 

realwarder

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<reserved>
If anyone, as a community service, wants to track W10M availability on a more granular level (country / carrier / device), they are welcome to do so here. Let me know and I will transfer ownership of this post.
</reserved>

Almost all devices are expected to receive the official update to W10M final. Unfortunately, the following devices won't be amongst them (although they will be able to update to W10M final via the insider preview program):

CountryCarrierBrandModelRelease
U.S.AVerizonNokiaIconNever
AT&TNokia830Never
T-MobileNokia810Never

I have to say that US carriers are really annoying me. I'm having to keep my language clean here.

...

...

...

Thinking about a corporate customer, I have to believe the real situation is contrary to this. The AT&T 830 and 640 will definitely get it.

Edit: Although if that customer has the global phone (although being US based), then perhaps it won't. They are on AT&T but may not have that specific model.
 

a5cent

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I have to say that US carriers are really annoying me. I'm having to keep my language clean here.

...

...

...

Thinking about a corporate customer, I have to believe the real situation is contrary to this. The AT&T 830 and 640 will definitely get it.

Edit: Although if that customer has the global phone (although being US based), then perhaps it won't. They are on AT&T but may not have that specific model.

Yeah. A bummer for sure...

I'd appreciate if you could elaborate a bit, as I'm not sure I'm following you.

Just to be clear (although I'm sure you know), a global phone on AT&T is still a global phone. When it receives an update is decided by the OEM, not the carrier. The important thing here is not really what carrier you are on, but whether your phone's ROM is a carrier-ROM or an OEM-ROM (country neutral/international/unlocked). All global Lumias that can technically run W10M will eventually be updated to W10M, no matter what carrier they are being used on. I edited the post a bit to reflect that more clearly.

You may be right that AT&T is just skipping the Denim update for the L830 and will sign-off on updates for it again after W10M is released. I've noted that too.
 
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realwarder

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The important thing here is not really what carrier you are on, but whether your phone's ROM is a carrier-ROM or an OEM-ROM (country neutral/international/unlocked). I edited the post a bit to reflect that more clearly.

You may be right that AT&T is just skipping the Denim update for the L830 and will sign-off on updates for it again after W10M is released. I've noted that too.

Yes, I understand that. I'll find out what model they are.
 

M L

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Didn't Microsoft promise that all WP8 phones would be able to upgrade to future versions after all the complaints from Windows Phone 7 users who couldn't get 8?
 

a5cent

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Didn't Microsoft promise that all WP8 phones would be able to upgrade to future versions after all the complaints from Windows Phone 7 users who couldn't get 8?

No. MS never promised that for any version of WP. Ever!

MS promises that every WP8.x device will technically be ABLE to run W10M. There's just a difference between the ability to do something and actually doing it! This has been a common misunderstanding in the WP community for years.

For models with a carrier-ROM, it's the carrier that decides if those phones are allowed to update. If carriers decide to not allow an update, there is nothing MS can legally do about it. Ultimately, MS has zero control over if/when a phone with a carrier-ROM is updated. The carrier decides, and MS can't and doesn't make promises on carrier's behalf.

The loop whole in all this is the insider preview.
 

GrayW0lf

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No. MS never promised that for any version of WP. Ever!
"never" "ever"... Are you sure about that? :)

http://winsupersite.com/windows-phone/all-windows-phone-8-handsets-will-get-windows-10-microsoft-says

Microsoft to update all WP8 Nokia Lumia devices with Windows Phone 8.1

https://twitter.com/lumia/status/532914535263641600

That said: The "Windows Insider" program is, indeed a loophole for Microsoft to upgrade "all" Lumia devices. It'll be interesting to see if Microsoft gets caught without the ability to make good on their promise in that tweet!
 

a5cent

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"never" "ever"... Are you sure about that? :)

http://winsupersite.com/windows-phone/all-windows-phone-8-handsets-will-get-windows-10-microsoft-says

Microsoft to update all WP8 Nokia Lumia devices with Windows Phone 8.1

https://twitter.com/lumia/status/532914535263641600

That said: The "Windows Insider" program is, indeed a loophole for Microsoft to upgrade "all" Lumia devices. It'll be interesting to see if Microsoft gets caught without the ability to make good on their promise in that tweet!

Yes. I am sure.

In this case every report claiming that updates to W10M are a sure thing (including that one by Paul Thurott you mentioned) all use the exact same tweet as their source. That is the tweet you linked to. Even in the best of times, a tweet without a high ranking executive's name attached to it barely counts as a promise. Scepticism would be well advised, even if the tweet were worded as a promise, which it isn't! The exact wording is:

"We plan to upgrade all Windows Phone 8 devices to Windows 10"

Assuming that "to plan something" is the same as "to promise something" is a common mistake made by much of the blogosphere. Note that the more reputable sources, like WCentral, have themselves never reported on this as being a sure thing or even a promise. Guess why not?

In the run up to WP8.1, when an MS executive was pushed for a comment on device updates, he said "all devices will be upgradable". Many also took this as a promise. Here too however, all devices being upgradable is not the same thing as a promise that every device will be upgraded. Those are two different concepts. And guess what? Not every device was upgraded. You can't casually listen to corporate speech. We must analyse it very carefully. It being human nature to hear what we want to hear doesn't make this any easier. Either way, MS didn't make that promise then either.

Pretty much every supposed promise can be dismantled in this way.

Most importantly, MS simply can't make such a promise, even if they wanted to. MS has little sway over carriers and although MS' management may be pulling out all the stops (I know they have in the past), carriers are the ones who have the final say. If you bought your device from a carrier, then you need the carrier to come out with a press statement making that promise. Short of that it can only be about MS' intentions, plans and technical capabilties, not promises.

The only thing MS is promising is that every W8.1 device will technically be able to run W10M. They can't promise more than that, and they aren't.
 

GrayW0lf

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The short version is: Wait and see / time will tell. No worries and don't misunderstand, I agree with your perspective on this. When people speak in absolutes on unannounced/undetermined future plans, I also express skepticism. It was really meant to be somewhat tongue-in-cheek. Apologies if that annoyed you!
 

a5cent

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The short version is: Wait and see / time will tell. No worries and don't misunderstand, I agree with your perspective on this. When people speak in absolutes on unannounced/undetermined future plans, I also express skepticism. It was really meant to be somewhat tongue-in-cheek. Apologies if that annoyed you!

Don't worry. I didn't realize it was tongue-in-cheek, but even then it didn't annoy me. I'm actually kind of thankful since it provided me with another opportunity to smack down what is still a very popular misconception. I just came down hard on this because I'd prefer that misconception to go away. :wink:

Either way, your summary is exactly right: no promises, but time will tell.
 

GrayW0lf

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Hahah.. I learned this lesson with my mistake in upgrading off the Samsung Focus to the Nokia Lumia 900.. And then one more time with my Lumia 2520 tablet. Microsoft is famous for vague statements that say just enough to "feel" like a promise.. But isn't. Ah well. ;)
 

mprebich

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I agree that we shouldn't take anything for granted (another L900 buyer here).

But Microsoft should realize that annoying dedicated WP users a second time is likely to be the nail in the coffin.

If they were to do it again to a large number of users, why would anyone switch to WP? More so, why would we stay?

This is the reason I want the missing features built into W10M as quick as possible - OTG, USB digital audio, etc., etc. I don't want to see a year from now all these features but "btw, you need new hardware". I'm happy to upgrade my hardware regularly (L900, L920, L1020, L930), but don't force me to have to do it just to get your "new" features that are actually old news across platforms.
 
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a5cent

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^ You are misunderstanding something here. MS is not abandoning any device (as they did with WP7). Maybe read the previous posts again...
 
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