Microsoft may end up throwing the towel in, in a face-saving roundabout way: if the 950/950XL devices tank, barely shifting any units, they can announce that, going forward, they'll get out of the way of their partner OEMs and completely get out of the phone hardware business, and offer W10 Mobile for free, as they currently do, to any interested OEM.
IF something like this is on the table, I think it might be a bit different. The following is all theoretical, my fabrication (more than likely precisely that!):
Maybe by the time Microsoft decided to shut the phone division down, development for Cityman and Talkman was far enough along that they decided it was worth it to release them anyway. For one thing, they already canceled McLaren, and doing the same thing a year later might have a ripple effect. Although the mobile division is insignificant in size, it could harm their image, negatively affecting sales of other products with customers not trusting them anymore. Also, releasing Cityman and Talkman would give OEMs a chance to see W10M in action at someone else's expense. The OEMs do not have to risk producing devices with a yet unseen W10M that may or may not sell. Maybe, by having Cityman and Talkman on the market, OEMs would like what they see and decide to produce W10M phones, even if Microsoft gets out of the phone hardware business.
Again, the above is all theoretical, and I do not actually think that is what's happening. I am just adding to the post I quoted as to how a (very unlikely) mobile division closure might be played out.
I do have another question that has to do with the Nokia writedown: doesn't Microsoft have to do something with the division besides saying, "
Hey, this business isn't so profitable after all, so we're going to write it off so we can pay less in income taxes.", and then continue with business as usual? It seems to me that there is more to it than that. Couldn't any business simply write off any purchase they make?
What if Microsoft's phone division later becomes profitable? I know that Microsoft did basically lose that money since the division showed no profit, but no big purchase like that has a 1 year ROI. There's no way they were going to recoup the purchase price after 1 year even if it had been profitable. They wrote of $7.6 billion. If they had made a profit of $1 billion (not counting the purchase price), they would not have written off $6.6 billion. I just don't see how they can write it off and keep going normally.