Why WP7 could still fail.

[Laura Knotek]

I guess the internet trolls give us tekkie peeps a 'cult like' status when it comes to opinions, but from what you've described, this a more indicative of the normal, more level-headed tech enthusiasts.

You're right. People in know in the real world are not at all like internet trolls.

 

[N8ter]

There are economics involved in choosing platforms. Being late and not having decent momentum puts you at a huge disadvantage there. The longer people stay on other platforms, the harder it is for them to migrate away from them.

 

[jabtano]

There are economics involved in choosing platforms. Being late and not having decent momentum puts you at a huge disadvantage there. The longer people stay on other platforms, the harder it is for them to migrate away from them.

That is very true and why it's such an up hill fight for this OS.

 

[socialcarpet]

There are economics involved in choosing platforms. Being late and not having decent momentum puts you at a huge disadvantage there. The longer people stay on other platforms, the harder it is for them to migrate away from them.

Good point. That is one reason why I try never to rely on an app that isn't cross-platform. I use EverNote since its available on all 3 platforms and Mac and PC. The one exception may be MS Office in this phone id lose that if I went to another platform.

I have spent a little money on Android apps, but I refuse to get myself in a position where I feel like I cannot switch OS .

Sent from my Lumia 900 using Board Express

 

[mparker]

There are economics involved in choosing platforms. Being late and not having decent momentum puts you at a huge disadvantage there. The longer people stay on other platforms, the harder it is for them to migrate away from them.

This is the basis behind MS's Win8 push, to change the economic calculation to one where Android and iOS are at a disadvantage because their installed base and developer base is so much smaller than Windows. It remains to be seen if they'll succeed; Microsoft's argument is full of holes and their success depends on Apple and Google not exploiting these holes.

Microsoft's best chance of success occurs if Intel's phone and tablet chipsets become better than the ARM designs, because Microsoft's weaknesses are magnified on ARM designs and they have many strengths on Intel designs (Win8 desktop mode for tablets). There's evidence that the Medfield SoC is at least competitive with current state-of-the-art ARM systems, and if Intel manages to "win" the mobile processor war in any significant way then iOS will be in a world of hurt, Apple will be back to where they were in the 68k and PowerPC days. One of the things that Intel is trying to do is commoditize the system designs the way they have with PCs.

This review of the Medfield reference phone is especially interesting, not only for the performance and battery numbers, but for how Intel is trying to transform the mobile manufacturing space: http://www.anandtech.com/show/5770/lava-xolo-x900-review-the-first-intel-medfield-phone

 

[tekhna]

That is very true and why it's such an up hill fight for this OS.

The fancy term is path dependance.
Path dependence - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Once people invest in an ecosystem it's really hard to get them out of it. Hence Google's desperate attempt to get it's "Play" ecosystem to take off.

 

[N8ter]

Googles play ecosystem has already taken off. It will take a miracl for it to fail with how many android phones out there have gapps on them.


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[HeyCori]

Googles play ecosystem has already taken off. It will take a miracl for it to fail with how many android phones out there have gapps on them.


Sent from my iPod touch using Tapatalk

Google Music isn't doing so well according to Neowin. Though I wouldn't go so far as to saying that all of Google Play is in a death spiral.

Google Music struggling as user numbers keep on dropping - Neowin

 

[nyc_rock]

Apple got a pass on missing features for years. What do they do? Bake cookies?

Android was missing some features through I think Froyo? What does Google do? Spreadsheets? They aren't poor either.

Because people arent comparing WP to the Iphone from two years ago. They are comparing the phone to the iphone of today. You dont buy a WP and say, its ok that I dont have core functionality becuase the Iphone didnt have it at this point of its development. You say, I could get an Iphone or Android device and have it all right now.

 

[nyc_rock]

The problem with WP as I see it is that Microsoft has not allowed differentiation of hardware. They have taken the Apple approach where they control everything. The OEM's are just producers of Microsofts products. Every WP out today is essentially the same with the exception of screen size. I know its big to defend WP against spec lovers becuase it doesnt need it. But human beings like to buy toys that are cool and powerful. Even if its not technically needed. I would love to get a WP, but I dont as I continue to wait for the next iteration hoping for something better. I wait for better and higher screen resolutions, more powerful core functionality, more app's, better camera's, more onboard memory etc. All of which are available on competing platforms.

 

[N8ter]

The problem with WP as I see it is that Microsoft has not allowed differentiation of hardware. They have taken the Apple approach where they control everything. The OEM's are just producers of Microsofts products. Every WP out today is essentially the same with the exception of screen size. I know its big to defend WP against spec lovers becuase it doesnt need it. But human beings like to buy toys that are cool and powerful. Even if its not technically needed. I would love to get a WP, but I dont as I continue to wait for the next iteration hoping for something better. I wait for better and higher screen resolutions, more powerful core functionality, more app's, better camera's, more onboard memory etc. All of which are available on competing platforms.

The showstopper isn't necessarily the specs, it's that the specs do not match the prices they are charging for these devices. WP7 devices have half the specs of Android devices and the new devices have worse specs than an iPhone 4S, but they're still looking for the same MSRP as Quad-Core Android phones. For why?

It's simply people looking at them and saying "why should I pay this much for a Corolla when I can get a Ferrari instead?"

If these mid-range phones (cause that's what they literally are, even teh 900) had mid-range prices (the 900 does, at least on contract), they would have sold a lot more phones.

But bringing the Titan II/Focus S at $199 contract price against iPhone 4S and top end Androids (and AT&T is getting most of the best Android devices coming out these days) just isn't going to cut it in this market.

People care about phone specs the same way someone who doens't do anything but surf the web and use Microsoft Office will choose a similarly priced, higher spec'd Dell or HP over an eMachine.

 

[canesfan625]

The showstopper isn't necessarily the specs, it's that the specs do not match the prices they are charging for these devices. WP7 devices have half the specs of Android devices and the new devices have worse specs than an iPhone 4S, but they're still looking for the same MSRP as Quad-Core Android phones. For why?

It's simply people looking at them and saying "why should I pay this much for a Corolla when I can get a Ferrari instead?"

If these mid-range phones (cause that's what they literally are, even teh 900) had mid-range prices (the 900 does, at least on contract), they would have sold a lot more phones.

But bringing the Titan II/Focus S at $199 contract price against iPhone 4S and top end Androids (and AT&T is getting most of the best Android devices coming out these days) just isn't going to cut it in this market.

People care about phone specs the same way someone who doens't do anything but surf the web and use Microsoft Office will choose a similarly priced, higher spec'd Dell or HP over an eMachine.

You aren't getting a Ferrari though. You're getting enough power to handle JIT without having a smart car.

 

[fatclue_98]

The showstopper isn't necessarily the specs, it's that the specs do not match the prices they are charging for these devices. WP7 devices have half the specs of Android devices and the new devices have worse specs than an iPhone 4S, but they're still looking for the same MSRP as Quad-Core Android phones. For why?

It's simply people looking at them and saying "why should I pay this much for a Corolla when I can get a Ferrari instead?"

If these mid-range phones (cause that's what they literally are, even teh 900) had mid-range prices (the 900 does, at least on contract), they would have sold a lot more phones.

But bringing the Titan II/Focus S at $199 contract price against iPhone 4S and top end Androids (and AT&T is getting most of the best Android devices coming out these days) just isn't going to cut it in this market.

People care about phone specs the same way someone who doens't do anything but surf the web and use Microsoft Office will choose a similarly priced, higher spec'd Dell or HP over an eMachine.


I hope this analogy makes some sense but "specs" are a relative term. A typical gasoline engine requires a multiplicity of camshafts, valves and complex fuel injection systems to produce say 250 HP and 275 lb/ft of torque. To reach max HP requires roughly 4000 RPM and 3000 RPM for max torque. Your typical diesel engine has internal valvetrain technology from the 1950's, direct fuel injection technology from the late 1970's and produces the same HP at 2100 RPM and double the torque at 1700 RPM. In other words, your Ferrari will smoke the Ram 2500 off the line, but the Ram will carry your Ferrari in its bed after it blows a head gasket to Tony's repair shop at 80 mph and pulling a 25' Shamrock Cuddy Cabin. All the while getting 20 mpg.

The processors, RAM, etc. that an Android needs to run effectively may be overkill on a WP7 device. There must be a reason that WP7 devices run faster and rarely freeze without the need for quad-cores, etc. (that's where the multi-valve analogy kicks in). An early 2000's Power PC Mac on OSX 10.3 ran circles around a Pentium III or IV with just a 1.25 gHz cpu and 512mb RAM compared to the Intel's 2.4 processor and 1.5 gHz RAM. For a closer comparison that involves phones, look at how smooth a Palm Pre+ runs its OS on a middling 800 mHz unit. Can't deny that webOS is the standard bearer for multi-tasking on a mobile OS and yet it's the weakest spec-wise. Overclock that Pre to 1 gig and you got yourself a real hot rod (sorry for the automotive analogy again).

 

[cp2_4eva]

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[cp2_4eva]

I hate board express. I had a long response and it was erased. I give up. Please fix this app devs.

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[squire777]

Good handset availability has been one of the key problems with WP7. It's not even about top of the line specs, but rather finding a decent phone has been very difficult for people on certain carriers.

If you recall when WP7 first launched there was much hype for phones like the Omnia 7 and the DVP but the Omnia 7 never made it to North America, and the DVP had all sorts of firmware and hardware issues that caused to be rarely found in stores. Over the last couple of years I have come across numerous people that said they would try out WP7 if they could find a decent phone. It's not about having the top of the line specs at this moment because even finding a phone on the level of the 900 is difficult.

I remember one of the first big pushes for Android into the mainstream was the original Samsung Galaxy line that had the release of 4 similar phones on all the carriers. It brought a sort of level playing field for people that wanted to try out Android no matter what carrier they were on. Nokia should really do something similar by getting the 900 out to every carrier, or at least releasing one that can be unlocked and used on every carrier.

 

[cckgz4]

I hate board express. I had a long response and it was erased. I give up. Please fix this app devs.

Sent from my Lumia 900 using Board Express

Tapatalk/board express sucks across the board

 

[N8ter]

You aren't getting a Ferrari though. You're getting enough power to handle JIT without having a smart car.

I was making an analogy to drive home a point. I think everyone got that but you, and one other person.

 

[N8ter]

The processors, RAM, etc. that an Android needs to run effectively may be overkill on a WP7 device. There must be a reason that WP7 devices run faster and rarely freeze without the need for quad-cores, etc. (that's where the multi-valve analogy kicks in). An early 2000's Power PC Mac on OSX 10.3 ran circles around a Pentium III or IV with just a 1.25 gHz cpu and 512mb RAM compared to the Intel's 2.4 processor and 1.5 gHz RAM. For a closer comparison that involves phones, look at how smooth a Palm Pre+ runs its OS on a middling 800 mHz unit. Can't deny that webOS is the standard bearer for multi-tasking on a mobile OS and yet it's the weakest spec-wise. Overclock that Pre to 1 gig and you got yourself a real hot rod (sorry for the automotive analogy again).

I made that statement to drive home a point, as stated above. The devices cost the same, yet you're paying for old hardware the same as you're paying for top of the line hardware. Maybe I said it wrong. Let's try this:

Will you pay the same for a brand new 2010 Ferrari as you would for a brand new 2012 Ferrari? Probably not. That's the point I was trying to make (you can safely assume the 2012 has superior internals in almost all cases).

Palm Devices were terrible not necessarily because of the specs but because of the build quality performance (the Palm Pre was terrible, ther'es a reason why they had to bring out the Pre PLUS, becuase without the extra RAM performance was dreadful).

I tried a Pre on Sprint for < 1 day before I bought it back. Performance was not good. It was terrible. It was night and day compared to the Pre+ on AT&T or Verizon, and even then, the hardware and build quality was still terrible. 3.2MP camera of dubious quality when everyone else had decent to great 5MP cameras (bar HTC devices). The casing felt like it was ready to creak open and fall off the phone at any time. That was WebOS' issue. The hardware it ran on.

And HP did themselves a real disservice by releasing the Pre 2 with practically the same look. Didn't really incite great memories

Palm was very innovative in their Software OS (PIM, MultiTasking, Notifications, etc.). Their hardware was beyond terrible and the first Pre released did have performance issues due to the low amount of RAM in the device. Lots of people had to return their Pres and a lot of others complained of them "falling apart." (maybe not literally, since people are prone to exaggeration on the internet).

The Palm Pre's specs were par for the course back then. Blackberries and even the iPhone 3G/3GS (and some Windows Mobile phones, even the first Android phones) had similar specs.

P4s started outperforming high-end PowerPCs at top end clock speeds in 2002. Not sure where you're going with that analogy... You needed a Dual PPC to beat a top end P4 back then and once Intel introduced their Dual Core processors IBM hasn't been able to beat them. Not sure where you're trying to go with that analogy.

 

[selfcreation]

I'm thinking of switching the Thread title to:

How Consumers could Cause WP to fail - MS, The innocent bystander?