I do not necessarily agree with him, but yet he does have a point.
I read on this forum and other pro Microsoft forums that the world is moving to 1) mobile devices, and 2) apps from a Store rather than traditional x86 "programs". Who are the companies that are (currently) leading the pack in those categories?
Microsoft is trying to get in the mobile and app markets, but so far the results have been feeble at best. It is conceivable that the world does in fact move to mobile/apps and that Microsoft does not make the headway they're striving for. Who is going to be in the driver's seat if that happens?
I agree.
Fact is that some things really are gloomy. Shutting our eyes and plugging our ears doesn't make those gloomy things go away however. As far as I'm concerned, Thurrott is absolutely right on the points he makes in that article.
Two decades ago, MS could offer cheaper and more accessible solutions than IBM, which the average IT worker (without a doctorate degree) could wrap their head around. Today, we see the exact same phenomenon, but now we have Apple and Google offering cheaper and more accessible solutions than MS, which the average Joe (without a formal IT education or sufficient enthusiasm) can wrap their head around.
Apple and Google also have the exact same "bottom up" advantage today which MS had twenty years ago. Thurrott states:
It is much easier to improve mobile platforms enough to replace PCs than it is to try and simplify PCs and make them more suitable for mobile usage scenarios.
... and that is no joke. It's probably hard to appreciate just how true that is without being a software engineer, and the extent to which that weighs down most of MS' endeavors.
Apple and Google are moving in the same direction MS is (better productivity capabilities in smaller devices), and there is no reason their ecosystems can't offer customers the exact same capabilities MS' Continuum based ecosystem can. The only difference is that developers will have to do more work to achieve a comparable outcome, but users couldn't care less about how much work developers must do! If the result is the same they won't care!
The only people who care are the developers themselves, or those paying developers to do the work. IMHO MS is relying on the combined interests of those groups of people to outweigh the interests of all those who don't care. I think that's a huge gamble and I'm skeptical it's enough, which is why I've been wishing for years now that MS would finally do something exciting for consumers, rather than just try to optimize the corporate/developer side of this interest-equation.
Anyway, Thurrott isn't saying this is an extinction moment for MS. It is an extinction moment for their participation in the consumer IT space however. What MS decides to do now determines how MS shapes the consumer IT market for the next three to five years, and MS desperately needs a few wins, but their retrenchment tactic is just another loss. MS can't continually lose battles and still expect to win the war.
MS just doesn't seem to feel the urgency of the situation they are in. It does seem like they are living in somewhat of a bubble, and that deserves to be criticized. I think that is what Thurrott is justifiably and rightfully doing.