What if there won't be any windows mobile devices?

Chintan Gohel

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One thing to remember about Microsoft, is they do SO much more than just phones, in fact phones are VERY small potatoes to them, PC software and such is their bread and butter!

That is very true but their unified vision of one OS across all form factors makes it quite apparent that mobile has to be part of the story - or you will have an incomplete story with no proper flow

And why can't we have bread with butter and jam too? :grin:



Yeah but they know that is only for so long. I currently pay about $150k per year to MS for desktop support and probably $400k more for server and developer support. However that revenue will eventually morph into something with IoT.

That's quite a lot of money - I'm guessing there must be hundreds of computers where you work

Good thing is MS is working quite a lot in the enterprise sector with better innovation and increased number of services - or do you feel different?


But, unfortunately, their grasp on the software front is being overtaken or simply beaten in two key areas: Education and Mobile. If young people are being exposed to Apple and Android throughout their elementary, middle, and high school years, they will have learned how to be productive using those environments. Once in college or in the work force, they will have no need to use Microsoft software unless they go into a specialized field that was built around it. These fields are everywhere now, but new industries in the next 20 years or so might be built using what today's young people are familiar with....iOS and Android. It is a must that they capture widespread youth appeal if they want to remain at the top of the software hill in the future. They need "cool", viral apps and mobile products. Doing things like announcing the Hololens 5 years before normal people can get their hands on it is not going to cut it.


I have to disagree here since this appears like a one sided viewpoint - MS isn't losing out in education at all - it would only seem that way since the education market in USA is tough for MS while just about every other country in the world uses MS products or the more analogue book and paper. Certainly in majority of colleges around the world windows laptops are the norm and apple is the exception. Chrome books aren't even a thing anywhere outside USA

I cannot see how ios or android will enter the productive space with their apps - it just can't be done - this week alone I was working with 240 excel files with each file having 1440 columns and 255 rows - there was simply no way to work with all those files using a touch interface - a keyboard and mouse were a complete necessity

Online learning sites like edx depend on the browser and a tablet or phone browser just can't handle it - I've tried it myself

Cool viral apps aren't the solution for capturing the attention of the youth


It's pretty hard to have a marketshare without substaintive new handsets. Certainly I am not saying some people haven't left. Certainly those who like new and shiny, will have probably moved on. But I think the number of people actually still using windows phones is frequently underestimated.

i agree with you on this one.
 

Chintan Gohel

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After all there are as many new UWP apps coming to the platform, as there are mobility app makers ditching the platform. I wrote a blog the other day on top games for the platform. Over 90% of them were all UWP. A lot of apps these days are UWP too (like productivity or photo editing apps)
The ones that are leaving are the ones that came earlier in the piece with Silverlight/xap, and see the platform as being about win10m, versus the ones that are coming in, who see UWP as the future app platform for windows - slightly different use scenarios with the userbase too admittedly: Desktop users don't have much use for snapchat or banking apps.

Nice research - you can share the blog and findings?

I think desktop users would like some apps that have been predominantly mobile - nowadays I like using Instagram in my surface 3 since the bigger screen helps a lot - I also use WhatsApp desktop and facebook on the desktop browser - there's barely anything that I really do exclusively on the phone - so if WhatsApp came to desktop as an actual app, I would use it immediately
 

Scienceguy Labs

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I think we're all just beating a dead horse here. Regardless of how we feel about apps, without them, Windows Mobile simply cannot go forward. I know there's a push for UWP apps, but that still requires a development team to spend time and money on an app for an ecosystem that, so far, hasn't proven to be worth the effort.
Just visit the store on a W10M device and search for any noteworthy apps that are essential on iOS or Android. Most likely, it won't be found, and if it is, it's usually very poor in function and support. Facebook, Facebook Messenger, Instagram, Google Apps, Cortana, etc, etc are good examples of this.

Are people leaving in droves or are there just no devices available?? Well, it could be argued that it's always been difficult to get one. Even in the heyday of the early 2010s carriers are reluctant to offer them, often steered you towards iOS or Android, or only offered a select few WPs to choose from. AT&T was the most supportive, but even they dropped the ball. So, people might not be leaving in droves, but were they ever really lining up in droves? At it's most popular, I only saw one other WP in the wild in a sea of iOS and Android.

The fact that people have to request apps to be made says it all. Whether it be one person requesting the same app over and over or a petition with a few thousand names on it, like the Band 3 petition that I signed, the fact that we are begging for apps is very telling. I can see petitioning for an obscure app, but we're begging for mainstream apps here. It's just....a dead horse. 😊
 

Scienceguy Labs

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My comment might have been one sided, I agree. I'm just going by what I see in my neck of the woods.

As far as cool as viral apps capturing the attention of the youth.... This is why WM is in the predicament they are in. MS was late to the app game.

I'm not arguing with you, Chintan. I appreciate your posts. 😊
 

Chintan Gohel

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but were they ever really lining up in droves?

Valid point


The fact that people have to request apps to be made says it all. Whether it be one person requesting the same app over and over or a petition with a few thousand names on it, like the Band 3 petition that I signed, the fact that we are begging for apps is very telling. I can see petitioning for an obscure app, but we're begging for mainstream apps here

This is spot on and I didn't think of it this way before - I have to hand it to you for making this point


I'm just going by what I see in my neck of the woods.

And I keep sharing experiences from my side of the world - so in essence, none of us have the complete picture by our individual selves - only Microsoft has the most complete picture of how things went wrong - and they are the ones in the best position to act on their prior shortcomings and make headway to a new future


I'm not arguing with you, Chintan. I appreciate your posts. ??????

And I appreciate yours as well :)
 

Scienceguy Labs

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Good points can be made for and against. I just happen to be on the disgruntled side at the moment. Ha ha

I do think you have a great point regarding perspective. It's very true that MS has loads of data that they're sifting through that we just don't get to see. Who knows what they have planned??? I just want them to succeed and get to the level that their competition is at as quickly as they can. It's frustrating, because I'm a fan, but was forced into Android largely due to the decisions of MS. Hopefully, things get better.
 

twint7787

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Didn't read many posts.

I've also thought they won't come back into mobile. I think that they will concentrate on AR.

They can't compete in mobile. Mobile is lost. That main phone type device will always be Android or iOS for most people. If the surface "phone" does come out it will be positioned as a notebook that can make calls. But the thing is that MS will just tell the public that Windows can make calls once they release Windows on ARM. That way when they release this device or makes calls because Windows does that. That will be their marketing speak.

But as far as being that main device in your pocket... No, I really don't see that happening. They are missing so many things to make that device great. Too many compromises for an average user and thus adoption will never take off, critical user mass will never happen, and developers won't make the apps that ppl need.
 

ak_r7

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Didn't read many posts.

I've also thought they won't come back into mobile. I think that they will concentrate on AR.

They can't compete in mobile. Mobile is lost. That main phone type device will always be Android or iOS for most people. If the surface "phone" does come out it will be positioned as a notebook that can make calls. But the thing is that MS will just tell the public that Windows can make calls once they release Windows on ARM. That way when they release this device or makes calls because Windows does that. That will be their marketing speak.

But as far as being that main device in your pocket... No, I really don't see that happening. They are missing so many things to make that device great. Too many compromises for an average user and thus adoption will never take off, critical user mass will never happen, and developers won't make the apps that ppl need.

Mobile devices are going to be next big thing. Devices are shrinking every day.
MS knows it cannot afford to ignore mobile platform if it wants to be a major player.
Catering ONLY a small segment of Ent. customers just won't cut it (read surface phone)
People loved WP because of many reasons- butter smooth OS, secure, excellent HW and camera, very good performance even on budget models etc etc.. The list could go on & on.

I believe MS should focus on below points if they want to be successful in mobile space.

1. Apps, apps and more apps
2. Stability of platform/OS
3. Strict quality control on apps
4. Have a clear cut vision and future road map for mobile.
5. HURRY the hell up, the world is not going to wait for decades for the next " big thing" from MS.
6. Create jaw dropping hardware (like Nokia used to do)
7. Improve support structure to gain back the lost trust of users.
8. More closer integration with windows desktop OS.
9. Revamp the mobile team, hire top talents from across the industry.
10. Promote the culture of using windows phone internally within the company.
11. Spend some good money on marketing of WP.

It sure will take considerable amount of time to get all this done but MS needs to start at least!!!
Or else, within 10-12 months, we could witness the death of a mobile platform which " could have been the greatest and BEST OS ever".
I could , gladly , any day dump my OP3 and IP6 if apps start coming on WP. I have loved WP since the day i got my 1st one- Lumia 920.. ( still hold a 640XL- use only as a wifi device for browsing, emails etc.)
 

Ray Picone

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if there was not a windows mobile device like a Windows phone, it would be just a matter of time before the desktop or laptop market would be affected. Android will soon have Chromebooks that will run apps. It would not take much to have Chromebooks take the place of Windows 10 laptops.
 

Drael646464

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Mobile devices are going to be next big thing. Devices are shrinking every day.
MS knows it cannot afford to ignore mobile platform if it wants to be a major player.
Catering ONLY a small segment of Ent. customers just won't cut it (read surface phone)
People loved WP because of many reasons- butter smooth OS, secure, excellent HW and camera, very good performance even on budget models etc etc.. The list could go on & on.

I believe MS should focus on below points if they want to be successful in mobile space.



1. Apps, apps and more apps
2. Stability of platform/OS
3. Strict quality control on apps
4. Have a clear cut vision and future road map for mobile.
5. HURRY the hell up, the world is not going to wait for decades for the next " big thing" from MS.
6. Create jaw dropping hardware (like Nokia used to do)
7. Improve support structure to gain back the lost trust of users.
8. More closer integration with windows desktop OS.
9. Revamp the mobile team, hire top talents from across the industry.
10. Promote the culture of using windows phone internally within the company.
11. Spend some good money on marketing of WP.

It sure will take considerable amount of time to get all this done but MS needs to start at least!!!
Or else, within 10-12 months, we could witness the death of a mobile platform which " could have been the greatest and BEST OS ever".
I could , gladly , any day dump my OP3 and IP6 if apps start coming on WP. I have loved WP since the day i got my 1st one- Lumia 920.. ( still hold a 640XL- use only as a wifi device for browsing, emails etc.)

I reckon static devices will be the next big thing after that. We have AR/VR and AI coming, and none of those things run well on tiny devices. If you want AI/AR/VR with low latency and with high power, you'll want it running on a powerful device, locally.

If you want to have a full on conversation with a truly intelligent something connected to a local IoT, the cloud isn't going to cut it, and a mobile device isn't going to cut it - plus access to a server with that many cores would be either costly or limited. If you want an AR or VR experience that approaches real life fidelity, a mobile phone is not going to cut it.

It also almost doesn't matter how fast internet connections get either. The net is only as fast as its slowest point, and even if it is fast, there's all the nodes each way - the distance. Fibre for example, only works at its fastest when wired - wifi isn't fast enough to take full advantage. And while that works okay for streaming, its not as effective for two way communication where latency is important.

If your accessing a server for a speech conversation for example, even with high speed access, there's going to be a delay in each direction. Even the highest speed fibre isn't fast enough for VR. And 5G isn't fast enough for no latency either.

Right now, things are getting smaller. But as with every other time processing power has gotten better, we find a new use for it.

I think MS senses this with their edge cloud thingo - they are designing cloud based IoT that can be localized for lower latency.
 

M_A_Adams

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I don't know, confidence is definitely NOT high. I don't believe that ANY phone will fit into the cloud first mantra from Nadella. I guess the only hope for that would be some sort of 10S device, where there is little on the device and everything would require connections and cloud access. I can't see that as workable with most of today's data plans and prices. I have a gut feeling that Nadella's vision of the future really doesn't include mobile. Hope I'm wrong, but all indications seem to point that way.
 

Drael646464

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I am now certain that the Andromeda device is in the works. looks like an enterprise focused device with a detachable dual screen clamshell, focused on multi-tasking. It's not quite a westworld tablet, or flexible screen (which are awhile off) and I don't think it'll run windows on arm. But it does appear to be in development, and it will be interesting.

It's supposedly running a sibling/branch of win10m. I don't think its a reboot either. So that still leaves us the question of will we see regular phones. HP? probably. The others? Wait and see. Doubtless there will need to be some kind of glass slabs too. Sure msft has some kind of plan, effective or not.
 

Ray Picone

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I think that Microsoft stock would drop and Microsoft would start losing customers who have wanted a complete solution.

Microsoft can be a big winner if they can come up with a phone that will dock up and to a docking station and become a full-fledged computer. It would be cool if it could even dock to a laptop shell. so that it would have a full keyboard and screen.
 

Chintan Gohel

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I think that Microsoft stock would drop and Microsoft would start losing customers who have wanted a complete solution.

Microsoft can be a big winner if they can come up with a phone that will dock up and to a docking station and become a full-fledged computer. It would be cool if it could even dock to a laptop shell. so that it would have a full keyboard and screen.

But has stock price dropped with their entrenchment policy? I've not seen any loss of confidence nor any stock price drop in the last few months, even after having released no new phones nor any significant developments in the mobile OS area
 

eshropshire

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I think that Microsoft stock would drop and Microsoft would start losing customers who have wanted a complete solution.

Microsoft can be a big winner if they can come up with a phone that will dock up and to a docking station and become a full-fledged computer. It would be cool if it could even dock to a laptop shell. so that it would have a full keyboard and screen.

I doubt it quite a bit, in fact I am pretty sure the opposite would happen if Microsoft recommitted to the hardware phone market. Balmer was forced out of the company because his mobile strategy lost billions of dollars with no path showing a way to turn around the business. I don't know why people here don't get the fact that the market has shifted to enterprise cloud services. Microsoft has to win this market and they can only get there by fully embracing the top client devices in the market. Why continue to lose money on phones when they can eliminate the loses and gain big profits by selling their services on iOS and Android.

Microsoft may get back in when the market shifts to the next generation of hybrid mobile OSs. Both Apple and Google are hard at work on trying to create the next generation of Mobile OSs (not updates to iOS and Android - new systems).
 

Drael646464

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I doubt it quite a bit, in fact I am pretty sure the opposite would happen if Microsoft recommitted to the hardware phone market. Balmer was forced out of the company because his mobile strategy lost billions of dollars with no path showing a way to turn around the business. I don't know why people here don't get the fact that the market has shifted to enterprise cloud services. Microsoft has to win this market and they can only get there by fully embracing the top client devices in the market. Why continue to lose money on phones when they can eliminate the loses and gain big profits by selling their services on iOS and Android.

Microsoft may get back in when the market shifts to the next generation of hybrid mobile OSs. Both Apple and Google are hard at work on trying to create the next generation of Mobile OSs (not updates to iOS and Android - new systems).

Google has one dude working on fuschia, AFAIK (at best a small team). And I have never seen anything suggesting apple is working on a hybrid OS, or anything other than iOS.

I don't think they are hard at work at anything of the sort. I think apple genuinely believes that iOS can simply be made to work with bigger screens (see the ipad pro), and that googles work into fushia is more of a "maybe we'll need that one day". I don't think either of them get that small screens are a temporary thing, and how that will impact their OSes. And google has good reason not to even care - they profit primarily from advertising via search - oses is like a hobby for them. The bigger threat to their business model is AI. Hence why they are focused on that.
 

Drael646464

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Actually Google is eating MS lunch in cloud connected services. I manage a multimillion dollar division in a top 10 enterprise software company. We do a lot of work with all of these companies supporting mobile access.

They make over 90 percent of their profit from search ads. I'm sure they have quite a few side projects, but they've been unable to turn any of them into major earners yet. This is all very evident in their quarterly reports.

I can tell you that Google is investing a lot more than one engineer on next gen. Apple keeps a lot quite but they are not resting on current iOS.

Well, I don't believe you. They'd be probably too late to the party anyway. Fushia was leaked. It looks like a dogs breakfast. Apple could have put a hybrid on their ipads - by the time either comes to the market, they'll still have all the, from scratch work, of attracting developers, scaling the OS, testing on hardware and so on.

If one of them releases a relatively polished product in the year or two, I might consider they have a chance at catching up. But there are major reasons why they will find it as hard, as MSFT has found it. iOS only runs on ARM, OSX only on intel - android runs on both, but the apps don't even scale to tablets, let alone desktops. Plus, windows and osx completely dominate the desktop space - it is much like, for google, like Microsoft getting a foothold in the phone space - they would need a compelling POD, that another competitor couldn't replicate (for example, free is not one - MSFT could and probably will make windows s free)

On the other hand you keep trying to convince the forum the MS is going all out on a future phone strategy.

No.

I don't think MSFT is planning for a "future phone strategy" as a business play whatsoever. MSFT has a good mixture of enterprise and consumer profit streams, unlike the other two, a very balanced profit portfolio that would endure if any one stream should die off.
THAT is smart business - no eggs in one basket, but instead a lot of balls in the air. They have something like around 6 similarly profitable income streams, in different areas.

Their technical development strategy is to create a similarly futureproof setup for their OS, software and cloud connected services. Next gen OS, next gen cloud, hardware and input independent cross platform software, market leading hardware etc.

Why, the future is big prize is owning the backend cloud integrated services.

Yeah, cloud services are certainly profitable. But I don't think they are the only prize in the future myself.

I think there a lot of fast growing, emerging new markets to be had over the next few decades. There are certainly many things, that depend on high processor useage, parallel processing, and low latency, such as full neural net AI, immersive VR and so on that will absolutely need to run locally too.

I'm clear on what Microsoft is saying it is doing, visibly investing in IMO.

Microsoft has zero interest in getting back into the low margin phone business.

This, seems, both true, and not. Adoption phase in phones has peaked, but the big players still make major profit, with high margins. Apples profit is 90 percent iPhone, and they are the biggest tech company in the world. It's not exactly accurate to call it low margin, although it is slowing.

I think they would absolutely be interested in a niche (for the same reason google is interest in mobile, despite no direct profit, for sale of services), and absolutely would be interested in any new paradigm with a new adoption phase (because its profits are potentially high AF, look an how apple has cleaned up).

The main thing with MSFT is they are forward facing - they are no interested in imitating, or following. They want to be like apple with the iphone - first in, or to be like the surface - a stand apart niche.

But there are also some very good reasons to keep phones, simple slabs afloat.

It offers a testing bed and development platform for small screens. And while small screens on phones may one day become relatively secondary, they won't be going away completely, ever. Whether they exist on smart devices and wearables or whatever - small screens will always be a thing.

MSFT has made their no screen, to mixed reality, scalability ambitions crystal clear- that's what a truly next gen OS does.

And to do that, to get software developed on those platforms, they actually need a broad range of form factors in the market. If they don't there will be no software that scales to that form. Which means the next gen OS, will in a sense, fail. They need a mature UI, software stack, and third party development for every scale and style of device, to be what they want to be, in operating systems.

They will only get in if they can build a game changing device.

I think that's a little exagerrated.

They don't need a game changing device, they simply need a foothold in the market, a stable niche that can be grown from. The hybrid tablet isn't "a game changing device", that has suddenly captured the entire market. People don't sit their with their minds blown that someone put a slate and a keyboard together.

It sits around 5% of tablet marketshare. But its rapidly growing. Its a place to expand from. A foothold.

That's all they really need, is a place to develop via, and expand from. Which, probably does need to be a bit different, have a POD, but it doesn't need to be a westworld tablet, or a chip in your brain.

Probably we will not agree.

I don't think _selling phones_ is in any way important to msft, but retaining consumer presence, and a development platform, is relevant to MSFTs open ambitions of a next gen OS, as is enterprise (where westworld tablets, complex IoT cloud AI and high end AR devices will most likely be sold first, while the prices of manu are brought down, and the product quality brought up), wearables, AR/VR, AI.

The cloud isn't the only profit stream MSFT has. For example they make around 3 billion per quarter making games for console and PC. And as such, their OS, isn't just a place to sell cloud services from. Its a platform to sell a range of products - cloud services, software, and profits from third party developers - as well as cloud based AI, and mixed reality products.

Its doubtful one company will actually be able to be a master of all things, in this complex future. Cloud computing is certainly something MSFT has an edge in (pun not intended XD). But it would be strange to assume MSFT wants to put all its eggs in one basket, especially when the whole one OS thing, has been a complete mantra over the last few years, and you can visibly see those efforts.

Its very clear MSFT wants windows to be an OS that is capable of "0D to 4D", a future proof OS, from which to sell their products and services, and make store money from - and that actually requires multiple hardware products, for the development of the OS, and the development of 3rd party software. A small part of that is small screens.

You can see in the surface pro's, cshell, and windows on arm, the attempt to gradually scale down, and their efforts to move things to UWP. If all people used windows for, was a desktop - everything they are doing would be a waste of time.

Even when it comes to the cloud, its clear MSFT understands its technical limits. Hence the intelligent edge. I think it likely the intelligent edge is actually more important than cloud based services - bringing that software into an on demand, low latency, local service doesn't entirely circumvent the issues with cloud based things (such as storage space, or processing power limits), but it DOES address latency.

Either way, when it comes to apple and googles next gen OS efforts - I'll believe it when I see it.

Such an OS is a mammoth effort, requires a lot of cultivation and millions of man hours of coding. It's significantly easier just to corner some market like IoT, or AI cloud services (which seems to be googles current focus). Even if they do release such an OS, the teething issues, getting development going, having a range of in market devices, will prove as much a challenge for apple and google as it has for MSFT. And with profits happily rolling in, I'm just not sure they are motivated for all that.
 

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